Overview
Constellation Energy
CEG · NASDAQQ3 2026Utilities · Nuclear and Natural Gas Power Generation
Since the Report + 0.8%
Revenue grew 45.4% year over year, EPS beat the estimate by 30.2%; the stock rose 10.5% in its first reaction.
- RevenueQ3
- $9.55B
- ▲ 45% YoY · Beat Estimate by 0.9%
- EPSAdjusted
- $5.06
- Estimate $3.89 · Beat by 30.2%
Verdict
BUYConstellation lifted adjusted EPS to $5.06, 30% above expectations, on the Calpine contribution and raised full-year guidance for the second time this year. Shares gained 10.5% on earnings day as long-term contracts eased doubts about data center demand. The next thing to watch is the 2027 earnings guidance due on the year-end call.
Close on Report DayNov 9
$276.09▲ 10.5%Report-Day Move
- Market Cap(Today)
- ≈ $98.6 B
- 1Y Return(At Report)
- − 23%
- P/E(At Today's Price · $12.65 · Trailing 12M)
- 22.0
- PEG(Company Guidance 2026)
- 0.63
- Net Margin(Trailing 12M)
- 12.8%
Earnings Summary
In 30 Seconds- Adjusted EPS of $5.06 beat expectations by 30%, while revenue of $9.55 billion came in line.
- Full-year earnings guidance rose to $12.50-$12.80, with the new midpoint 4.4% above the market expectation.
- Shares rose 10.5% on earnings day as the Amazon and Google deals eased doubts about demand.
The Numbers
GAAP EPS
$5.19
Year Ago $2.97 · ▲ 75%
Full-Year EPS Guidance
$12.50–12.80
Estimate $12.12 · 4.4% Above
Nuclear Capacity Factor
97.2%
Year Ago 96.8% · Up 0.4 Points
Stock Reaction
▲ 10.5%
Close to Close · Nov 9 · $276.09
Quarterly Revenue ($ Billion)
6.57
Q3 25 · $6.57 B
6.07
Q4 25 · $6.07 B · QoQ − 7.5%
11.12
Q1 26 · $11.1 B · QoQ + 83.1%
7.50
Q2 26 · $7.50 B · QoQ − 32.5%
9.55
Q3 26 · $9.55 B · QoQ + 27.3% · YoY + 45.4%
- Q3 25
- Q4 25
- Q1 26
- Q2 26
- Q3 26
Q4 2026 Company Guidance
- Full-Year Adjusted EPS12.5 – 12.8 $12.5 $12.8 $
Midpoint 12.65 · Prior 11.50–12.50 · Market Expectation 12.124.4% Above Estimate ▲
- Prior Full-Year Range11.5 – 12.5 $11.5 $12.5 $
Given in August · Midpoint 12.00Midpoint Raised 5.4% ▲
How to Read the Chart
The blue band is the company's low-high range; its length shows how much room the company left itself. The black triangle and the line beneath it mark where the market expected, and the notch in the band is the range's midpoint. The triangle appears only where a market expectation is known. When the company gave a single number rather than a range and no market expectation is known, that row gets no band at all: there is no length to measure and no position to compare. Axis is ±4.8% around the midpoint.
Company-Specific Metrics
Nuclear Output
46.7 K GWh
▲ 0.4% YoYPress Release
Nuclear Capacity Factor
97.2%
Press Release
Planned Refueling Outage
20 days
Press Release
Gas and Hydro Forced Outage Rate
5.9%
Press Release
Renewable Energy Capture
96.4%
Press Release
Nine-Month Operating Cash Flow
$4.98 B
▲ 45.1% YoYPress Release
Metrics come only from the company's own filings; each one names the document it was taken from.
“I do think we've seen a bit of an overreaction in the market to the election results. Obviously, there already has been a great deal of data center development in jurisdictions like Illinois and Virginia. We are confident that bipartisan solutions to the issues presented by data centers also will be implemented.”
- Data Center Demand Holds
- 8,500 MW of Long-term Deals
- Nuclear Uprates
Summary and Review
Summary
Constellation reported third-quarter revenue of $9.55 billion. That is up 45% year over year and only 0.9% above the market estimate. Adjusted EPS came in at $5.06, beating the $3.89 estimate by 30%. The company raised full-year earnings guidance to $12.50-$12.80. The new midpoint sits 4.4% above the market expectation. The revenue gate is in line, while the earnings and guidance gates are open. The main growth driver is the Calpine acquisition completed in January.
The stock rose 10.5% on November 9 to close at $276.09. In the month before earnings, shares had fallen about 7%. The selloff reflected post-election doubts about data center demand. CEO Joe Dominguez called it an overreaction by the market on the call. The company has signed more than 8,500 MW of long-term agreements so far this year. The market read this report not as an earnings story but as a confirmation of demand.
The score is 76, with a buy view. Earnings and guidance clearly beat expectations, while revenue came in line. That keeps the score below 80. GAAP earnings also include a $108 million tax-related gain. Nine-month operating cash flow reached $4.98 billion, up 45% year over year. Despite the rally, the stock is still 23% below its level a year ago. The average analyst target is $339.
Full Review
Calpine expanded the earnings base.
Quarterly revenue was $9.55 billion, compared with $6.57 billion a year earlier. Most of the increase comes from the Calpine acquisition completed in January 2026. Adjusted operating earnings rose from $952 million to $1.79 billion. That is an 88% increase. The per-share gain, however, was 66%. The gap reflects diluted shares rising from 313 million to 354 million after the acquisition. GAAP EPS was $5.19. That figure includes a $127 million unrealized valuation gain and a $108 million tax adjustment. Adjusted earnings are therefore the measure to follow. The company attributes the increase to market conditions and the Calpine contribution. Interest expense and nuclear production tax credit effects partly offset the gain.
The nuclear fleet ran almost without interruption.
The nuclear capacity factor was 97.2%. A year earlier it was 96.8%, an increase of 0.4 points. Planned refueling outage days fell from 23 to 20. Nuclear output rose 0.4% year over year to 46,677 GWh. These figures show a fixed-cost fleet selling at nearly full capacity. The forced outage rate at gas and pumped-storage plants was 5.9%. The company is reporting this metric for the first time this year because of its expanded fleet. Energy capture at wind, solar and run-of-river plants was 96.4%. Last year it was 96.8%, a decline of 0.4 points. High utilization also matters for the reliability of contracted sales. A customer signing a 20-year deal relies on the plant producing power every hour. This quarter's figures support that trust.
Contracts lock demand in for decades.
The real news of the quarter is the contracts. Amazon signed a 20-year, 690 MW agreement for the Calvert Cliffs plant. The deal enables more than $3 billion of investment and a 190 MW capacity expansion. A 20-year agreement with Google will add about 890 MW of capacity across 11 reactors. That deal involves more than $4.3 billion of investment, with the first uprate expected in 2028. Google also signed a 15-year, 2,700 MW load-following agreement in PJM. The first 270 MW deal under the new Peak+ product was signed as well. According to Dominguez, this quarter's agreements add as much new capacity as a large nuclear plant. The company says existing customers will not bear these costs. The Department of Energy also issued a $5 billion conditional loan commitment for uprates.
Guidance was raised for the second time this year.
Full-year adjusted EPS guidance is $12.50-$12.80. The August range was $11.50-$12.50. The midpoint moved up 5.4%. In May, the company had affirmed a range of $11.00-$12.00. The new midpoint of $12.65 is 35% above 2025 earnings of $9.39. The market expectation before the report was $12.12. The company also agreed to buy a 609 MW gas plant in Rhode Island for $715 million. It said share repurchases continued. Guidance for 2027 and 2028 will come with year-end results. Today's rally therefore also prices in a view on next year's earnings base. The pre-earnings decline in the stock had weakened that view. The new guidance largely reversed that doubt.
The one number to watch next quarter.
At February's year-end report, watch one line: the midpoint of 2027 earnings guidance. The market expectation currently sits at $13.34-$13.51 per share. A midpoint above $13.50 would mean the post-Calpine earnings base is durable. In that case, the contract story is turning into profit. A midpoint below $13 would cast this year's $12.65 as a peak inflated by favorable market conditions. The second metric is new contract volume. More than 8,500 MW has been signed so far this year. Sustaining that pace is the precondition for the valuation to approach last year's levels again. The stock still trades well below its 52-week high of $380. Contracts flowing into earnings guidance would close that gap.
Looking Ahead
Strengths and Risks
5 Strengths · 5 RisksStrengths
5- Adjusted EPS of $5.06 beat expectations by 30% and rose 66% year over year.
- Full-year guidance was raised for the second time this yearThe new midpoint is 4.4% above expectations.
- Twenty-year deals with Amazon and Google tie nuclear uprates to long-term revenue.
- The nuclear capacity factor of 97.2% exceeded last year's 96.8%.
- Nine-month operating cash flow rose 45% year over year to $4.98 billion.
Risks
5- Revenue beat expectations by only 0.9%Most of the growth comes from the Calpine acquisition.
- Diluted shares rose from 313 million to 354 million, limiting per-share growth.
- GAAP earnings include a $108 million tax adjustment and valuation gains.
- Post-election regulatory debates over data centers could weigh on demand expectations again.
- Uprates are spread over 2028-2032Execution delays would push back returns.
What to Watch
4- Year-end results and 2027-2028 guidance are expected in February 2027.
- The Rhode Island gas plant acquisition will close after regulatory approvals.
- The $5 billion conditional DOE loan still requires a signed loan agreement.
- The first nuclear uprate under the Google agreement is due to come online in 2028.
Upcoming Earnings
To Understand This