Overview
Since the Report − 1.1%
Revenue grew 13.2% year over year, EPS beat the estimate by 1.2%; the stock fell 1.5% in its first reaction.
- Net RevenueQ4
- $12.14B
- Estimate $12.09B · 0.4% Beat
- EPSAdjusted
- $3.48
- Estimate $3.44 · 1.2% Beat
Verdict
HOLDVisa beat fiscal fourth-quarter estimates by 0.4% with net revenue of $12.14 billion and by 1.2% with adjusted EPS of $3.48. On the call it guided 2027 net revenue growth to the low double digits; the market's 13.2% EPS growth estimate sits at the top of the guided range. Shares are down 1.5% after hours; the ratio to watch next is client incentives as a share of gross revenue.
Close on Report DayOct 27
$401.86▼ 1.5%Report-Day Move
- Market Cap(Today)
- ≈ $742 B
- 1Y Return(At Report)
- + 16%
- P/E(At Today's Price · $13.27 · Trailing 12M)
- 29.9
- Net Margin(Trailing 12M)
- 50.8%
Earnings Summary
In 30 Seconds- Net revenue of $12.14 billion beat estimates by 0.4%, and adjusted EPS of $3.48 beat by 1.2%.
- Visa guided 2027 net revenue growth to the low double digits; the market's 13.2% EPS growth estimate sits at the top of the guided range.
- Shares fell as much as 2.3% after hours and the loss narrowed to 1.5% after the call, as investors priced a slowdown from 16% EPS growth in 2026.
The Numbers
Payments Volume (Constant $)
▲ 9%
Prior Period 10% · 1-Point Slowdown
Cross-Border Volume
▲ 14%
Constant $ · Ex Intra-Europe 14%
Full-Year Net Revenue
$45.9B
▲ 15% YoY · Adjusted EPS $13.27
Stock Reaction
−1.5%
After Hours ~6:30 P.m. ET · Low −2.3%
Quarterly Revenue ($ Billion)
10.72
Q4 25 · $10.7 B
10.90
Q1 26 · $10.9 B · QoQ + 1.7%
11.23
Q2 26 · $11.2 B · QoQ + 3.0%
11.63
Q3 26 · $11.6 B · QoQ + 3.6%
12.14
Q4 26 · $12.1 B · QoQ + 4.3% · YoY + 13.2%
- Q4 25
- Q1 26
- Q2 26
- Q3 26
- Q4 26
Q1 FY27 Company Guidance
- FY2027 EPS Expectation15.02 $
Company: Low Double Digits to Low Teens Growth · Estimate 13.2% GrowthIn Line ✓
- Tax Rate (FY2027)19%
Company Guidance About 19% · Q4 26 Actual 18.4%0.6-Point Increase
Company-Specific Metrics
Processed Transactions
74.2 B transactions
▲ 10.0% YoYPress Release
Client Incentives
$5.12 B
▲ 21.0% YoYPress Release
Quarterly Share Repurchases
$4.00 B
Press Release
Remaining Buyback Authorization
$24.4 B
Press Release
Quarterly Dividend
$0.78
▲ 16.0% YoYPress Release
Metrics come only from the company's own filings; each one names the document it was taken from.
“Visa delivered a milestone year. We achieved record net revenue of $46 billion, up 15%, the strongest growth in over 15 years excluding the post-pandemic recovery and acquisitions. In 2026, we also demonstrated that whenever technology changes commerce, we move with it, we anticipate what's next, and we enable its growth as the leading hyperscaler of payments globally. The foundation of all of this is trust. As we look to 2027 and beyond, trust is the next growth vector for Visa.”
- Record $46B Net Revenue
- Trust As Next Growth Vector
- Hyperscaler of Payments
Summary and Review
Summary
Visa's net revenue for the fiscal fourth quarter ended September rose 13% year over year to $12.14 billion. The market expected $12.09 billion; at 0.4% above, the revenue gate is in line. Adjusted EPS rose 17% to $3.48, beating the estimate by 1.2%. The 2027 EPS growth range given on the call covers the market's 13.2% estimate at its top end. Three in-line gates and incentive pressure leave the score at 58 and the verdict at hold.
The stock closed the regular session down 0.6% at $401.86. After the release, shares fell as much as 2.3% after hours, to $392.73. After the call, as of about 6:30 p.m. ET, the loss narrowed to 1.5% at $396. The market did not read this report as a surprise; it read it as a slowdown. After 16% EPS growth in fiscal 2026, the 2027 range starts a step lower.
For the full year, net revenue rose 15% to $45.9 billion. On the call, CEO Ryan McInerney said value-added services revenue grew 30% in constant dollars. Commercial and money movement revenue grew 19%; together the two account for more than 40% of net revenue. Client incentives, however, rose 21%, and about 25% of payments volume comes up for renewal in 2027. That is the caveat behind the hold verdict: growth is solid, but protecting it is getting more expensive.
Full Review
Transactions and cross-border volume drive revenue.
Data processing revenue was $6.25 billion, up 16% year over year. This line depends on the number of transactions on Visa's network. Processed transactions rose 10% to 74.2 billion. Payments volume grew 9% in constant dollars. Service revenue rose 14% to $5.26 billion; it is based on payments volume for the period ended in June. Volume growth in that period was 10%. International transaction revenue was $4.12 billion, up 8%. Cross-border volume grew 14% in constant dollars, but revenue from this line lagged volume. The release does not explain the gap. Other revenue rose 40% to $1.65 billion, the fastest-growing line.
Incentives are growing faster than revenue.
Visa deducts the client incentives it pays banks and partners from gross revenue. This quarter, incentives rose 21% year over year to $5.12 billion. Net revenue grew 13% over the same period. Based on the release tables, incentives equal 29.7% of gross revenue. In the same quarter a year ago, the ratio was 28.3%, so it rose 1.4 points. Rising incentives are usually the cost of new contracts and renewals. Visa is leaving partners a larger share to protect volume. In the short run, this keeps net revenue growth behind gross revenue growth. Incentive contracts are usually multi-year deals with large card issuers. According to the earnings call, about 25% of payments volume comes up for renewal in 2027. In 2026 that share was 20%. If the ratio rises while volume growth slows, net revenue comes under pressure.
Profits and capital returns are strong.
Adjusted operating expenses rose 12% to $4.05 billion. With net revenue up 13%, expense growth stayed slightly behind revenue. GAAP net income rose 18% to $6.0 billion, and GAAP EPS rose 22% to $3.19. That figure includes a $469 million litigation provision, which adjusted results exclude. The company bought back $4.0 billion of stock in the quarter and $20.5 billion over the year. The average repurchase price in the quarter was $369.12. At the end of September, $24.4 billion of buyback authorization remained. The board raised the quarterly dividend 16% to $0.78. See the share buyback guide for how buybacks affect EPS.
The full year and the BioCatch deal.
In fiscal 2026, net revenue rose 15% to $45.9 billion. Adjusted EPS rose 16% to $13.27, and GAAP EPS rose 21% to $12.32. Processed transactions grew 9% over the year to 281.3 billion. For the full year, cross-border volume grew 13% and payments volume 9% in constant dollars. The company returned a total of $25.6 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. In August, Visa agreed to buy fraud-prevention firm BioCatch for $2.4 billion in cash. The deal is expected to close by the end of the second quarter of fiscal 2027. In the release, McInerney called trust Visa's next growth vector. BioCatch is the first concrete step in that story.
The 2027 framework and one ratio to watch.
Visa is guiding fiscal 2027 adjusted net revenue growth to the low double digits. Operating expenses are also expected to grow in the low double digits, modestly below net revenue. Adjusted EPS growth is guided from the low double digits to the low teens. The tax rate should be about 19%. The market expects 2027 EPS of $15.02, a 13.2% increase from $13.27. For the first quarter, EPS growth is guided to the low end of the mid-teens. Next quarter, watch one ratio: client incentives as a share of gross revenue. It was 29.7% this quarter. If it stays below 30% while renewals pick up, growth is holding. If it rises above, Visa is paying partners more to protect volume. See the how to read earnings day guide.
Looking Ahead
Strengths and Risks
6 Strengths · 6 RisksStrengths
6- Net revenue rose 13% year over year to $12.14 billion, beating estimates by 0.4%.
- Adjusted EPS rose 17% to $3.48, 1.2% above the estimate.
- Cross-border volume grew 14% year over year in constant dollars.
- The quarterly dividend was raised 16% to $0.78.
- Visa bought back $20.5 billion of stock over the year, with $24.4 billion of authorization remaining.
- Value-added services revenue grew 30% in constant dollars for the year and, with commercial payments, exceeded 40% of net revenue.
Risks
6- Client incentives rose 21%, faster than net revenue, reaching 29.7% of gross revenue.
- Payments volume growth slowed from 10% in the prior period to 9%.
- International transaction revenue grew 8%, lagging the 14% growth in cross-border volume.
- The quarter included a new $469 million litigation provision.
- About 25% of payments volume comes up for renewal in fiscal 2027, up from 20% in 2026.
- The 2027 EPS growth range starts a step below the 16% growth delivered in 2026.
What to Watch
3- The raised dividend will be paid on December 1 to holders of record on November 10.
- The BioCatch acquisition is expected to close by the end of the second quarter of fiscal 2027.
- First-quarter fiscal 2027 results are expected in late January 2027.
Upcoming Earnings
To Understand This