Overview
Since the Report − 0.1%
Revenue grew 36.3% year over year, EPS beat the estimate by 8.0%; the stock rose 1.7% in its first reaction.
- RevenueQ3
- $67.80B
- ▲ 36.3% YoY · 10.1% Above Estimate
- EPSAdjusted
- $5.28
- Estimate $4.89 · 8.0% Beat
Verdict
BUYChevron reported third-quarter revenue of $67.8B and adjusted EPS of $5.28, beating the earnings estimate by 8%. Downstream earnings hit a record $4.93B and offset lower oil prices. The stock is rising; the measure to watch next is when the company returns surplus cash to shareholders instead of debt.
Close on Report DayOct 30
$235.39▲ 1.7%Report-Day Move
- Market Cap(Today)
- ≈ $465 B
- 1Y Return(At Report)
- + 53%
- P/E(At Today's Price · $14.27 · Trailing 12M)
- 16.5
- Net Margin(Trailing 12M)
- 9.9%
Earnings Summary
In 30 Seconds- Revenue of $67.8B beat estimates by 10.1%, and adjusted EPS of $5.28 beat by 8.0%.
- Downstream earnings hit a record $4.93B, but production fell 2.6% year over year.
- The stock rose 1.7% intraday; the company steered surplus cash to debt reduction rather than buybacks.
The Numbers
Downstream Earnings
$4.93B
Record · Last Year $1.14B
Production
3.98M boe/d
▼ 2.6% YoY · Middle East Impact
Free Cash Flow
$12.0B
Q2 $18.1B · Adjusted 14.2
Stock Reaction
▲ 1.7%
Intraday 11:03 ET; Update This Evening
Quarterly Revenue ($ Billion)
49.73
Q3 25 · $49.7 B
46.87
Q4 25 · $46.9 B · QoQ − 5.7%
48.61
Q1 26 · $48.6 B · QoQ + 3.7%
70.06
Q2 26 · $70.1 B · QoQ + 44.1%
67.80
Q3 26 · $67.8 B · QoQ − 3.2% · YoY + 36.3%
- Q3 25
- Q4 25
- Q1 26
- Q2 26
- Q3 26
Q4 2026 Company Guidance
- Q4 Share Buyback2.5 – 3.0 billion2.5 billion3.0 billion
Midpoint 2.75 · Q3 2.50Up 10% Sequentially ▲
- Q4 Affiliate Distributions3.0 – 3.5 billion3.0 billion3.5 billion
Including Venezuela
- Q4 One-Time Charge3 – 4 billion3 billion4 billion
Hess Midstream · After Tax
- Q4 Upstream Downtime175 – 225 kboe/d175 kboe/d225 kboe/d
Maintenance and Hurricane Impact
- Q4 Downstream Turnaround Cost0.4 – 0.5 billion0.4 billion0.5 billion
Pascagoula and Richmond
How to Read the Chart
The blue band is the company's low-high range; its length shows how much room the company left itself. The black triangle and the line beneath it mark where the market expected, and the notch in the band is the range's midpoint. The triangle appears only where a market expectation is known. When the company gave a single number rather than a range and no market expectation is known, that row gets no band at all: there is no length to measure and no position to compare. Axis is ±16% around the midpoint.
Company-Specific Metrics
Operating Cash Flow
$16.0 B
Press Release
Capital Expenditure
$4.01 B
Press Release
Share Buybacks
$2.50 B
Press Release
Dividends Paid
$3.48 B
Press Release
Upstream Earnings
$5.70 B
▲ 72.6% YoYPress Release
US Refinery Crude Runs
1.09 M barrels/day
Press Release
Metrics come only from the company's own filings; each one names the document it was taken from.
“We delivered strong operational performance and disciplined execution, while continuing to invest to grow energy supply. We're reinvesting to bring more energy to a supply-constrained market.”
- Record Refining Earnings
- Debt Reduction Priority
- Venezuela Growth
Summary and Review
Summary
Revenue was $67.8B. That is up 36.3% year over year and 10.1% above the market expectation. Adjusted EPS was $5.28 against an estimate of $4.89, an 8.0% beat. The revenue and earnings gates are open. The company gives no earnings guidance, so the third gate is not counted. Operating cash flow was $16.0B and free cash flow $12.0B. Shareholders received $6.0B.
The stock is up 1.7% in morning trading and touched a 52-week high of $236.46. The market did not read this report as an oil story. It read it as a refining story. Brent averaged below the second quarter, and Upstream earnings declined. But record Downstream earnings closed most of that gap. The stock has gained about 53% over the past year.
Score 81, view buy. With two gates open, the quarter lands in the top band. Three caveats keep the score near the bottom of that band. Production fell 2.6% year over year. Buybacks stayed at the low end of the range at $2.5B. A $3-4B one-time charge tied to the Hess Midstream deal is coming in the fourth quarter. The balance sheet, however, strengthened markedly.
Full Review
Refining earnings hit a record.
The Downstream segment earned $4.93B. That is the highest figure in company history. In the same quarter last year it earned $1.14B. US refineries processed a record 1.09 million barrels of crude per day. Utilization reached about 98%. The US business earned $3.59B and the international business $1.35B. Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz is tightening fuel supply. That lifts fuel margins independently of crude prices. Chevron was one of the biggest winners from that gap this quarter. The record came from both high margins and high volumes. Pascagoula's capacity could rise 7% by the end of the decade.
Upstream slipped but stayed strong.
Upstream earned $5.70B. Last year it earned $3.30B, a 72.6% increase. Versus the second quarter, the picture differs. According to the company presentation, adjusted earnings fell from $8.26B to $6.10B. Brent averaged $97, down from $104. Total production was 3.98 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. A year ago it was 4.09 million, and 4.07 million in the second quarter. The company attributes the drop to lower entitlements at high prices and the Middle East disruption. Permian output has stayed above 1 million barrels per day for a sixth straight quarter. Total US production exceeded 2 million barrels.
Surplus cash went to debt.
Operating cash flow was $16.0B and capital spending $4.0B. Free cash flow came to $12.0B. The company bought back $2.5B of stock and paid $3.5B in dividends. Total debt fell by $3.5B in the quarter. The net debt ratio dropped to 9.6%, from 15.6% at the end of 2025. In other words, the windfall went to the balance sheet, not to buybacks. Remarks attributed to CFO Eimear Bonner on the call point the same way. The company is not changing its priorities in response to higher prices. That disappoints investors hoping for buybacks. But it provides flexibility if prices fall. The company also announced better terms and added acreage in Venezuela the same day.
A one-time charge lands in Q4.
Chevron gives no quarterly earnings guidance, but it offers item-by-item outlook. It plans $2.5-3.0B of buybacks in the fourth quarter. The midpoint is 10% above the third quarter. A one-time after-tax charge of $3-4B tied to the Hess Midstream deal is coming. The company says the deal will cut Bakken transport costs by about half. Maintenance and hurricane downtime will hit Upstream output by 175-225 thousand barrels per day. In refining, turnarounds at Pascagoula and Richmond will weigh $400-500M on earnings. In Venezuela, gross output is expected to reach 300 thousand barrels per day by year-end. Together these items could keep fourth-quarter earnings well below the third quarter.
One measure: the buyback pace.
Next quarter, look at one line: share buybacks. This quarter they were $2.5B; the fourth-quarter range is $2.5-3.0B. The net debt ratio is already low at 9.6%. If the ratio stays below 10% while buybacks move to the top of the range, cash is starting to flow back to shareholders. If they stay at the low end, the company is assuming oil prices will fall. In refining, the threshold is $3B. If Downstream earnings stay above it, the record looks durable. To read free cash flow, see the cash flow guide. For production, the threshold is 4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Looking Ahead
Strengths and Risks
6 Strengths · 5 RisksStrengths
6- Downstream earnings of $4.93B set a company record.
- US refineries processed a record 1.09 million barrels of crude per day.
- The net debt ratio fell to 9.6%, from 15.6% at the end of 2025.
- Adjusted EPS beat the estimate by 8.0%.
- Permian output stayed above 1 million barrels per day for a sixth straight quarter.
- Better terms and added acreage in Venezuela support long-term production growth.
Risks
5- Production fell 2.6% year over year to 3.98 million barrels per day.
- A $3-4B one-time charge tied to Hess Midstream will be booked in the fourth quarter.
- Buybacks of $2.5B stayed at the low end of the range.
- Refining margins depend on the Middle East disruption and could narrow quickly if it ends.
- Analyst targets differ by more than 8% between two sourcesThere is no common value.
What to Watch
5- December 10, 2026A quarterly dividend of $1.78 per share will be paid.
- Q4 2026A $3-4B one-time charge tied to the Hess Midstream deal will be booked.
- End of 2026Gross output in Venezuela is expected to reach about 300 thousand barrels per day.
- End of 2026Annual capital spending closing at the low end of guidance will be tracked.
- Late January 2027Q4 earnings will show the buyback pace and refining earnings.
Upcoming Earnings
To Understand This