Overview
JPMorgan Chase
JPM · NYSEQ3 2026Financials · Banking
Since the Report + 1.4%
Revenue grew 8.0% year over year, EPS missed the estimate by 5.6%; the stock fell 0.9% in its first reaction.
- Managed RevenueQ3
- $50.9B
- Expectation $51.22B · 0.6% Below
- EPSGAAP
- $5.57
- Expectation $5.90 · Missed by 5.6%
Verdict
SELLJPMorgan was in line on revenue but missed on earnings per share by 5.6%; score 45, view sell. A 0.7% lift to full-year NII guidance did not offset 12% expense growth and a sharp buyback slowdown, and the stock closed down 0.86%. The number to watch next is whether fourth-quarter NII excluding Markets reaches $25.5 billion.
Close on Report DayOct 13
$331.43▼ 0.9%Report-Day Move
- Market Cap(Today)
- ≈ $893 B
- 1Y Return(At Report)
- + 10%
- P/E(At Today's Price · $23.84 · Trailing 12M)
- 14.1
- Net Margin(Trailing 12M)
- 33.3%
Earnings Summary
In 30 SecondsThe Numbers
Net Income
$15.3B
▲ 6% · $15.8B Excluding Item
Stock Reaction
-0.86%
Close to Close · $331.43
Net Interest Income (NII)
$27.1B
▲ 13% · Ex-Markets $24.7B
CET1 Ratio
13.9%
Q2 14.2% · Q3 25 14.8% · Down 0.3 Points
Quarterly Revenue ($ Billion)
47.12
Q3 25 · $47.1 B
46.77
Q4 25 · $46.8 B · QoQ − 0.7%
50.54
Q1 26 · $50.5 B · QoQ + 8.1%
58.02
Q2 26 · $58.0 B · QoQ + 14.8%
50.91
Q3 26 · $50.9 B · QoQ − 12.3% · YoY + 8.0%
- Q3 25
- Q4 25
- Q1 26
- Q2 26
- Q3 26
Q4 2026 Company Guidance
- Full-Year NII106.2 billion
Prior 105.5 · Q4 ~28Raised 0.7% ▲
- Full-Year NII (Ex-Markets)97.2 billion
Prior 96.5 · Q4 ~25.5Raised 0.7% ▲
- Full-Year Adjusted Expense108.6 billion
Prior 107.5 · Q4 ~27.5Expense Outlook Up 1.0% ▼
- Full-Year Card Net Charge-Off Rate3.2%
July Outlook 3.2% · Q3 2.91%Flat
- 2027 NII (Ex-Markets, Preliminary)107 billion
2026 Outlook ~97.2Up 10.1% vs. 2026 ▲
Segment and KPI Data
Revenue by Segment
- Commercial & Investment Bank$22.7 BShare 44.7%▲ 14.0% YoY
Net income $8.25B · up 20%
- Consumer & Community Banking$21.2 BShare 41.7%▲ 9.0% YoY
Net income $5.67B · up 13%
- Asset & Wealth Management$6.91 BShare 13.6%▲ 14.0% YoY
Net income $1.84B · up 11%
Key Metrics
Investment Banking Fees (CIB)
$3.01 B
▲ 14.0% YoYPress Release
Equity Markets Revenue
$4.95 B
▲ 49.0% YoYPress Release
Fixed Income Markets Revenue
$5.37 B
▼ 4.0% YoYPress Release
Provision for Credit Losses
$2.74 B
▼ 19.0% YoYPress Release
Average Loans
$1.56 T
▲ 10.0% YoYPress Release
Assets Under Management (AWM)
$5.20 T
▲ 13.0% YoYPress Release
Card Net Charge-Off Rate
2.9%
Press Release
ROTCE
20.0%
Press Release
Shares are computed over the segment total: $50.8 B. Source: Press Release.
Metrics come only from the company's own filings; each one names the document it was taken from.
“The capital hierarchy has always been the same. After you pay your dividend, which hopefully will be steady, we really like investing in organic growth.”
- Dividend First, Then Organic Growth
- Roughly $30 Billion of Excess Capital
- Tightening Up a Little on Credit
Summary and Review
Summary
JPMorgan reported third-quarter managed revenue of $50.9 billion. The market expectation was $51.22 billion; the gap is 0.6%, so the revenue test is in line. GAAP earnings per share of $5.57 came in 5.6% below the $5.90 expectation; the EPS test is closed. Full-year NII guidance rose to about $106.2 billion from $105.5 billion, up 0.7%; the guidance test is in line. One closed test and two in line put the quarter in the sell band; score 45.
The stock closed down 0.86% at $331.43. The first reaction to the release was sharp; shares fell about 3.5% before the open. During the session the price recovered to $344.36, 3.0% above the prior close. But selling pressure lasted into the close, and the stock finished near the day's low. The market did not read this report as a growth story. Expense growth, slower buybacks and fading investment banking momentum took center stage.
This was not a bad quarter, but it was not as good as expected. Net income rose 6% to $15.3 billion. Excluding a $658 million securities loss, EPS was $5.75, still 2.5% below the expectation. Expenses grew 12% while revenue grew 8%, and that gap squeezes profitability. Strong interest income and the 2027 NII path keep the score in the middle of the band; expense and buyback concerns keep it from moving higher.
Full Review
The earnings miss is not just one item.
GAAP EPS was $5.57 against a $5.90 market expectation. Part of the gap comes from a $658 million investment securities loss in Corporate. The after-tax impact was $498 million, or $0.18 per share. Excluding that item, EPS rises to $5.75, but it is still 2.5% below the expectation. According to LSEG data cited by Reuters, this is the first profit miss since the fourth quarter of 2023. The real pressure is on the cost side. Noninterest expense rose 12% to $27.3 billion, and the overhead ratio was 54%. The provision for credit losses, by contrast, fell 19% from a year earlier to $2.7 billion. That includes $2.2 billion of net charge-offs and a $539 million reserve build. So credit quality did not cause the miss. The problem is that revenue is not growing as fast as expenses.
The interest income engine is still running strong.
Net interest income rose 13% to $27.1 billion. NII excluding Markets grew 6% to $24.7 billion. Average loans grew 10% and average deposits 8%. Management lifted full-year NII guidance to about $106.2 billion from $105.5 billion. The outlook excluding Markets also rose to $97.2 billion from $96.5 billion; both increases are about 0.7%. More striking is the first number for 2027. In a preliminary analysis, the company expects about $107 billion of NII excluding Markets. That is 10.1% above the 2026 level. According to CFO Jeremy Barnum, roughly a quarter of the increase comes from the yield curve and expected rate hikes. The rest depends on balance sheet growth and the mix of deposits and card lending. For how rates flow into a bank, the rates and bonds guide is a good start.
Equities shone in Markets; fixed income stayed weak.
Markets revenue rose 15% to $10.3 billion. Almost all of that growth came from equities. Equity Markets revenue rose 49% to $4.95 billion. Fixed Income Markets revenue fell 4% to $5.37 billion. Commodities, rates and credit were weak; currencies and emerging markets partly offset them. Investment banking fees rose 14% year over year to $3.0 billion, but fell 8% from the prior quarter. According to Reuters, that growth landed at the low end of the range management signaled in September. The IPO market has cooled in recent weeks. Asset & Wealth Management painted a calmer picture: revenue rose 14% to $6.9 billion, and assets under management grew 13% to $5.2 trillion.
The buyback slowdown matters most to shareholders.
The bank repurchased 3.1 million shares for $1.06 billion this quarter. In the same quarter last year, that figure was $8.32 billion. Year-to-date buybacks total $16.1 billion. The program that began in July has a $50 billion ceiling. The standardized CET1 ratio fell to 13.9%, from 14.2% in the prior quarter and 14.8% a year ago. On the earnings call, Jamie Dimon said the bank has roughly $30 billion of excess capital. But the order of priorities is clear: the dividend first, then organic growth, and buybacks last. The quarterly dividend rose to $1.65. So the capital is there, but the bank is expected to invest it in the balance sheet, not the stock. The buyback guide explains the mechanics.
The threshold that changes the story is $25.5 billion.
Management raised its adjusted expense outlook by 1.0%, to about $108.6 billion from $107.5 billion. Fourth-quarter expense is expected at about $27.5 billion. The preliminary view for 2027 is about $114 billion, 5.0% above 2026. Credit is calm. The card net charge-off rate was 2.91%, against a full-year outlook of about 3.2%. Keep the rule simple. Fourth-quarter NII excluding Markets needs to hit the guided level of about $25.5 billion. If it does, the $107 billion target for 2027 stays credible and expense growth pays for itself. A result below $25 billion would show that 12% expense growth keeps eating into profit.
Looking Ahead
Strengths and Risks
6 Strengths · 6 RisksStrengths
6- Net interest income rose 13% to $27.1 billion, and full-year NII guidance was raised by 0.7%.
- Equity Markets revenue jumped 49% to $4.95 billion.
- Average loans grew 10%, and Asset & Wealth Management assets under management rose 13% to $5.2 trillion.
- The card net charge-off rate fell to 2.91%, from 3.15% a year ago and 3.34% in the prior quarter.
- Management expects about $107 billion of NII excluding Markets in 2027, 10.1% above 2026.
- The quarterly dividend rose to $1.65 per share, up 10% from $1.50.
Risks
6- GAAP EPS came in 5.6% below the $5.90 expectationEven excluding the securities loss, the gap is 2.5%.
- Expenses rose 12% to $27.3 billion, outpacing 8% revenue growth.
- Share buybacks fell to $1.06 billion, from $8.32 billion in the same quarter last year.
- The standardized CET1 ratio slipped to 13.9%, from 14.2% in the prior quarter and 14.8% a year ago.
- Fixed Income Markets revenue fell 4%, with weakness in commodities, rates and credit products.
- Investment banking fees fell 8% from the prior quarter, and the IPO market has cooled in recent weeks.
What to Watch
4- January 14, 2027Q4 results; a test of the roughly $25.5 billion NII excluding Markets guidance.
- January 14, 2027Q4 expense measured against the roughly $27.5 billion outlook.
- January 2027The 2027 expense outlook firms up; management's preliminary view is about $114 billion.
- Year-end 2026The card net charge-off rate measured against the full-year outlook of about 3.2%.
Upcoming Earnings
To Understand This