Overview
Since the Report + 9.7%
Revenue grew 48.0% year over year, EPS beat the estimate by 27.0%; the stock rose 4.9% in its first reaction.
- RevenueQ2
- $22.97B
- ▲ 48% YoY
- Mounjaro Sales
- $9.9B
- ▲ 91%
Verdict
BUYLilly grew revenue 48% year over year to $22.97 billion and lifted its full-year revenue outlook by roughly $3 billion. The stock rose 4.9%, but enthusiasm stayed measured. The real debate is not growth: it is how long the price erosion and the oral pill's slow start will last.
Close on Report DayAug 5
$1,169.86▲ 4.9%Report-Day Move
- Market Cap(Today)
- ≈ $1.21 T
- 1Y Return(At Report)
- + 56%
- P/E(At Today's Price · $31.49 · Trailing 12M)
- 40.7
- PEG(Company Guidance 2026)
- 0.84
- Net Margin(Trailing 12M)
- 33.5%
Earnings Summary
In 30 Seconds- Revenue rose 48% year over year to $22.97B; adjusted EPS of $8.38 beat the estimate by 27%.
- Full-year revenue guidance was raised to $85-87B, but realized prices fell 13% year over year.
- The stock rose 4.86% on earnings day; Foundayo's slow $98M start capped the enthusiasm.
The Numbers
Zepbound Sales
$4.9B
▲ 46%
Non-GAAP EPS
$8.38
27% Above Expectations
Realized Price
-13%
Volume Up 60%
Full-Year Revenue Guidance
$85-87B
Raised From $82 – 85B
Quarterly Revenue ($ Billion)
15.56
Q2 25 · $15.6 B
17.60
Q3 25 · $17.6 B · QoQ + 13.1%
19.29
Q4 25 · $19.3 B · QoQ + 9.6%
19.80
Q1 26 · $19.8 B · QoQ + 2.6%
22.97
Q2 26 · $23.0 B · QoQ + 16.0% · YoY + 47.6%
- Q2 25
- Q3 25
- Q4 25
- Q1 26
- Q2 26
Q3 2026 Company Guidance
- Full-Year Revenue85 – 87 billion85 billion87 billion
Prior Range $82-85B · Market Expectation 85.3Raised 3.0% ▲
- Full-Year Adjusted EPS35.5 – 36.5 $35.5 $36.5 $
$3.03 Acquired IPR&D Charge in the QuarterTop End Cut from $37.00 ▼
- Full-Year Performance Margin49.0% – 50.5%49.0%50.5%
Prior Range 47-48.5%Raised 2.0 pts ▲
How to Read the Chart
The blue band is the company's low-high range; its length shows how much room the company left itself. The black triangle and the line beneath it mark where the market expected, and the notch in the band is the range's midpoint. The triangle appears only where a market expectation is known. When the company gave a single number rather than a range and no market expectation is known, that row gets no band at all: there is no length to measure and no position to compare. Axis is ±1.7% around the midpoint.
Segment and KPI Data
Revenue by Segment
- U.S.$14.4 BShare 62.6%▲ 33.0% YoY
Volume up 37%, price down 3%
- Outside U.S.$8.60 BShare 37.4%▲ 80.0% YoY
Volume up 113%, price down 36%
Key Metrics
Adjusted Gross Margin
86.3%
Press Release
Mounjaro Outside-U.S. Sales
$5.20 B
▲ 172.0% YoYPress Release
Ebglyss Sales
$201 M
▲ 131.0% YoYPress Release
Jaypirca Sales
$192 M
▲ 56.0% YoYPress Release
Kisunla Sales
$167 M
Press Release
Shares are computed over the segment total: $23.0 B. Source: Press Release.
Metrics come only from the company's own filings; each one names the document it was taken from.
“Lilly's momentum continues, as we delivered 48% revenue growth and raised our full-year guidance. At the same time, Lilly is building for the future. With our next-generation weight-loss medicine retatrutide and its complete clinical data package in hand, new manufacturing capacity coming online, and exciting new assets entering our pipeline through business development, Lilly's future, after 150 years, has never been brighter.”
- Medicare GLP-1 Bridge Program
- Growth Across All Major Geographies
- Prescription Leadership in Obesity Market
Summary and Review
Summary
Eli Lilly reported $22.97 billion in second-quarter revenue. Growth was 48% year over year, about 11% above the $20.6 billion Market Expectation. Non-GAAP earnings were $8.38 per share, roughly 27% ahead of estimates. The engine is the same pair of drugs. Mounjaro grew 91% to $9.9 billion and Zepbound grew 46% to $4.9 billion. Together: $14.9 billion, close to two-thirds of revenue. Revenue outside the U.S. jumped 80% to $8.6 billion. Management raised full-year revenue guidance to $85.0-$87.0 billion.
The stock closed up 4.86% at $1,169.86. The muted enthusiasm reflects not weak numbers but how much the price already assumes. Two details gave investors pause. First, revenue grew on a 60% volume jump while realized prices fell 13%. Prices were down about 3% in the U.S. and 36% internationally. Second, the oral GLP-1 pill Foundayo delivered only $98 million in its first full quarter. The top of the EPS range was also trimmed to $36.50 from $37.00.
Our grade for the quarter is 85 out of 100, with a buy verdict. The reasoning: every metric beat. The revenue outlook and margin target moved higher together. Growth is spreading across geographies. Two reservations keep it below 90. Price erosion looks structural rather than temporary. And the most-watched new product is not landing as fast as expected. This is a report card on the quarter, not a stock call; what follows depends on how much valuation already prices in.
Full Review
One drug family still drives the quarter.
Mounjaro and Zepbound together generated $14.9 billion, roughly 65% of the $22.97 billion total. Mounjaro's 91% growth alone accounts for a meaningful slice of what the entire company earned a year ago. The rest of the portfolio is moving too: immunology, oncology and neuroscience revenue rose 121%. The eczema treatment Ebglyss grew 131% to $201 million. The blood-cancer drug Jaypirca grew 56% to $192 million. The Alzheimer's treatment Kisunla reached $167 million. Still, none of these is anywhere near the scale needed to replace the GLP-1 franchise. That concentration is a strength while things go well and a liability when they turn. Having two-thirds of revenue tied to a single mechanism is the first item an investor should note on diversification grounds.
Price erodes, yet guidance still moved up.
Revenue growth came from a 60% increase in volume, while realized prices declined 13%. Those numbers define the story: more patients, lower price per box. U.S. realized price fell about 3%, or 9% once one-time rebate adjustments are stripped out. International erosion was far sharper at 36%. Most of that came from Mounjaro's addition to China's National Reimbursement Drug List. CFO Lucas Montarce said volume growth will more than offset the price declines. That showed up in guidance. Revenue guidance was lifted to $85.0-$87.0 billion from $82-$85 billion, a $2.5 billion increase at the midpoint. The performance-margin target moved from 47.0%-48.5% to 49.0%-50.5%. The top of the non-GAAP EPS range was cut to $36.50 from $37.00. The cause is not operational deterioration: the quarter carried $3.03 per share of acquired in-process R&D charges, versus $0.14 a year earlier. Reading the financial statements requires separating that charge from investment.
The oral GLP-1 pill started slower than expected.
Foundayo (orforglipron) won FDA approval on April 1, 2026 and reached patients on April 9. As the first once-daily GLP-1 pill with no injection required, it was the most anticipated launch of the year. It brought in $98 million in its first full quarter, less than 2% of what Zepbound earned in the same period. Management conceded the rollout has been slower than anticipated. Ilya Yuffa, president of international operations, said the prescriber base expanded from 8,000 to 36,000. Prescription volume doubled within a month. Roughly one in four patients starting therapy now chooses the pill. The company is leaning on 30-day sampling to break prescribing habits. Most international launches are pushed to 2027. In short, the product works, but the adoption curve shows the shift from injection to pill is not automatic.
Capacity spending and pricing are one equation.
Lilly committed an additional $4.5 billion to expand its Indiana manufacturing sites and opened its first genetic medicine facility. Two reasons drive the outlay. First, supply: GLP-1 demand has outrun capacity for years. The second is policy. Tariff threats on imported medicines and reshoring pressure continue in the U.S. Domestic manufacturing is the most direct hedge. On price, the company signed a most-favored-nation agreement with the administration in November 2025. The average monthly price through TrumpRx fell from more than $1,080 to $346. Medicare and state Medicaid programs cover the medicines at $245 a month. The patient pays a $50 copay. In exchange, obesity medicines came under Medicare coverage for the first time. The Medicare GLP-1 bridge program that began July 1, 2026 opened access to 20 million Americans. Management said prescriptions inflected clearly. About 80% of those patients chose injectables, and 60%-70% were new to therapy.
The Novo gap widens, the bet shifts to retatrutide.
International revenue jumped 80%, extending Lilly's GLP-1 lead beyond the U.S. In 2026 it moved ahead of Novo Nordisk in GLP-1 share outside the United States. Pressure has not disappeared. Generic semaglutide has arrived in India and Brazil. Management said Mounjaro kept growing there on superiority data, and that generic makers hit supply constraints. On the oral front the race is only starting. The first oral launch in the UAE reportedly expanded the market; most incoming patients had never been treated. The bigger bet shifts to the next medicine. David Ricks emphasized retatrutide, the triple-acting obesity treatment, calling its efficacy unprecedented. Positive Phase 3 data came from three additional obesity trials. The package supports registrations in obesity, sleep apnea and knee osteoarthritis pain. A Biologics License Application is planned for Q1 2027; the uncertainty is legal, not scientific. Watch two lines next quarter: realized price change and Foundayo's quarterly revenue.
Looking Ahead
Strengths and Risks
6 Strengths · 6 RisksStrengths
6- Revenue rose 48% year over year to $22.97 billion, about 11% above the Market Expectation.
- Non-GAAP EPS of $8.38 came in roughly 27% ahead of expectationsGross margin improved 1.3 points to 86.3%.
- Full-year revenue guidance was raised to $85.0-$87.0 billion from $82-$85 billion, and the performance-margin target to 49.0%-50.5% from 47.0%-48.5%.
- International revenue grew 80%Growth no longer depends on a single market, and Lilly moved ahead of Novo Nordisk in GLP-1 share outside the U.S.
- The non-GLP-1 side of the portfolio is acceleratingİmmunology, oncology and neuroscience revenue grew 121%.
- The additional $4.5 billion of Indiana manufacturing investment addresses the supply bottleneck and tariff risk at the same time.
Risks
6- Realized prices fell 13%, with international erosion reaching 36%Decisions such as China's reimbursement listing make that pressure structural.
- Roughly two-thirds of revenue comes from Mounjaro and ZepboundThat degree of dependence on one mechanism is a concentration risk.
- Foundayo, the oral GLP-1 pill, managed only $98 million in its first full quarter, and management admitted the launch is running slower than planned.
- The top of the non-GAAP EPS range was trimmed to $36.50 from $37.00, as $3.03 per share of acquired in-process R&D charges weighed on profit.
- Management flagged decelerating growth in the second half, as prior-period adjustments and international launch comparisons come into play.
- Political pressure on U.S. drug prices and the threat of tariffs on imported medicines persistThe most-favored-nation agreement has permanently lowered the price ceiling.
What to Watch
6- Third-quarter results are due ~November 2026, the first read on whether the slowdown management flagged actually materializes.
- The full-quarter effect of the Medicare GLP-1 bridge program, which began July 1, 2026, will show up in third-quarter numbers for the first time.
- Foundayo has been submitted in the U.S. for a type 2 diabetes indication; the regulatory decision is among the developments to watch.
- A Biologics License Application for retatrutide is planned for the first quarter of 2027; the dispute over the filing pathway could shift that timing.
- Most Foundayo launches outside the U.S. are scheduled for 2027; international supply readiness is the item to track.
- The commissioning schedule for the additional $4.5 billion of Indiana capacity and the final shape of U.S. pharmaceutical tariff policy.
Upcoming Earnings
To Understand This