Overview
Since the Report − 2.1%
Revenue grew 571.3% year over year, EPS beat the estimate by 79.4%; the stock fell 16.1% in its first reaction.
- RevenueQ3
- $980.8M
- ▲ 571% YoY · Beat Estimate by 8.1%
- EPSGAAP
- −$0.13
- Estimate −$0.63 · 79% Better
Verdict
HOLDNebius grew third-quarter revenue 571% year over year to $980.8 million, beating expectations by 8.1%. The stock still fell 16% intraday as 2026 revenue guidance moved to the low end of the range and the capex target rose to $27 billion. The next question is whether revenue excluding one-offs can carry the $12-13 billion target for 2027.
Close on Report DayNov 12
$129.80▼ 16.1%Report-Day Move
- Market Cap(Today)
- ≈ $34.6 B
- 1Y Return(At Report)
- + 38%
- P/E(At Today's Price · $0.31 · Trailing 12M)
- 410.0
- Net Margin(Trailing 12M)
- 3.1%
Earnings Summary
In 30 Seconds- Revenue of $980.8 million beat expectations by 8.1%, but about $325 million of it was a one-off.
- 2026 revenue guidance moved to the low end, while 2027 targets $12-13 billion of revenue and $40-45 billion of capex.
- The stock fell 16% intraday on the full-year cut and the larger spending plan.
The Numbers
Adjusted EBITDA
$465.8M
47.5% Margin · Year Ago −$5.2M
Annualized Run-Rate Revenue
$6.4B
June $3.0B · ▲ 113% QoQ
Capex (Q3)
$7.30B
Full-Year Target Raised to ~$27B
Stock Reaction
−16.1%
Intraday 12:40 ET; Updated This Evening
Quarterly Revenue ($ Billion)
0.15
Q3 25 · $146 M
0.23
Q4 25 · $228 M · QoQ + 55.9%
0.40
Q1 26 · $399 M · QoQ + 75.2%
0.58
Q2 26 · $582 M · QoQ + 45.9%
0.98
Q3 26 · $981 M · QoQ + 68.4% · YoY + 571.3%
~1.04 (Derived)
Q4 26E · ~1.04 (Derived) · QoQ + 5.8% · YoY + 355.8%
- Q3 25
- Q4 25
- Q1 26
- Q2 26
- Q3 26
- Q4 26E
Q4 2026 Company Guidance
- 2026 Revenue3 billion
Low End of Range · Prior 3.0–3.4 · Estimate 3.3510.4% Below Estimate ▼
- 2027 Revenue12 – 13 billion12 billion13 billion
Midpoint 12.5 · Estimate 12.093.4% Above Estimate ▲
- 2026 Capex27 billion
Prior 20–25 · Midpoint 22.5Raised 20% ▲
- 2026 Adj. EBITDA Margin40%
About 40% · Q3 Actual 47.5%Flat
- 2027 Capex40 – 45 billion40 billion45 billion
75–85% Via Prepayments and Asset-Backed DebtNew Target
How to Read the Chart
The blue band is the company's low-high range; its length shows how much room the company left itself. The black triangle and the line beneath it mark where the market expected, and the notch in the band is the range's midpoint. The triangle appears only where a market expectation is known. When the company gave a single number rather than a range and no market expectation is known, that row gets no band at all: there is no length to measure and no position to compare. Axis is ±13% around the midpoint.
Company-Specific Metrics
Cash and Cash Equivalents
$7.43 B
Press Release
Weighted Average Shares
298 M shares
Press Release
Metrics come only from the company's own filings; each one names the document it was taken from.
“Demand remains exceptionally strong, and we have the right mechanisms in place to capture it. We expect to reach pre-tax breakeven by the end of 2027. Our confidence in the fundamentals of what we are building has not changed.”
- Prepayments Covering Capex
- Delay From Power, Not Demand
- Token Factory Inference Platform
Summary and Review
Summary
Nebius reported third-quarter revenue of $980.8 million. That is up 571% year over year and 8.1% above the $907.2 million estimate. GAAP loss per share was $0.13, 79% better than the expected $0.63 loss. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $465.8 million, a 47.5% margin. Sequential revenue growth was 68%. Annualized run-rate revenue (ARR) went from $3.0 billion in June to $6.4 billion at the end of September. The revenue and profit gates are open, while the guidance gate closed with the full-year cut.
The market did not read this report as a growth story. About $325 million of revenue was a one-off from the asset-light partnership model. Excluding it, quarterly revenue was 28% below the estimate. The company moved 2026 revenue to the low end of its $3.0-3.4 billion range. The full-year capex target also rose from $20-25 billion to about $27 billion. After a 15% gain the day before, the stock fell 16% intraday. Peers such as CoreWeave and IREN also fell the same day.
Our score is 60 and our view is hold. Revenue and profitability were strong, but the full-year cut closes one gate in our decision table. Management says the shift reflects third-party capacity moving into the first half of 2027, not weaker demand. The new 2027 revenue target of $12-13 billion is 3.4% above market expectations. It comes with $40-45 billion of capex and a heavy financing load. This is a report card on the quarter, not a stock recommendation.
Full Review
Revenue grew sixfold, with a one-off inside.
Third-quarter revenue was $980.8 million. A year ago it was $146.1 million; sequential growth was 68%. Over five quarters, revenue went from $146 million to $228, $399, $582 and $981 million. But about $325 million of this quarter was a one-off. It came from the asset-light model, in which the company works with partner capacity. Management said this revenue is not included in the 2027 target. The margin on the one-off revenue was not disclosed separately. Excluding it, quarterly revenue was about $656 million. That is 28% below the $907.2 million market expectation. Even so, core revenue was 13% above the prior quarter's $582.3 million. Growth continues, just not as fast as the headline jump suggests.
Profitability crossed the line.
Adjusted EBITDA was $465.8 million. A year ago it was a $5.2 million loss. The margin was 47.5%, and the AI cloud business alone posted 53.2%. Adjusted net income was $90.9 million, against a $100.4 million loss a year earlier. The GAAP net loss narrowed to $37.5 million from $119.6 million in the same quarter last year. Loss per share was $0.13, 79% better than the expected $0.63 loss. The weighted average share count was 298.0 million. The company kept its full-year adjusted EBITDA margin target of about 40%. It set the fourth quarter of 2027 as its pre-tax breakeven target. No profit line missed expectations this quarter.
Capex is accelerating, and so is financing.
Capital expenditure was $7.30 billion in the quarter. The nine-month total was $15.43 billion. The full-year target rose from $20-25 billion to about $27 billion. The 2027 capex plan is $40-45 billion. The company aims to fund 75-85% of it with customer prepayments and asset-backed debt. It holds $7.43 billion of cash, against $14.0 billion of long-term debt. In August it issued $5.75 billion of convertible notes. A $775 million asset-backed facility followed in July and a $3.5 billion Citi facility in October. Management says prepayments covered more than 100% of capex on contracts won in the third quarter. In the second quarter that ratio was 50-60%. Our cash flow guide explains how to read this balance.
Guidance: 2026 down, 2027 up.
The company moved 2026 revenue to the low end of its $3.0-3.4 billion range. The market expected $3.35 billion; the low end is 10.4% below that. The ARR target also changed. Instead of $7-9 billion by December, it now expects more than $7 billion by February. Management will stop giving ARR guidance from here. According to the earnings call, part of the delay relates to securing power at the Vineland site. On the other side, the 2027 revenue target is $12-13 billion. The midpoint is $12.5 billion against a $12.09 billion expectation, a 3.4% gap. That target is roughly four times the 2026 low end. The full-year adjusted EBITDA margin target of 40% did not change. Contracted power has passed 4 GW, with a 5 GW year-end goal.
Next quarter, watch one line.
In February, watch one number: quarterly revenue excluding one-offs. This quarter it was about $656 million. The low end of the full-year target implies about $1.04 billion of fourth-quarter revenue. If core revenue tops $1 billion, the base for the $12-13 billion 2027 target looks solid. If it stays below $800 million, the capacity delay starts to read like a demand problem. The second measure is how much of capex prepayments cover. Keeping that ratio above 100% would ease financing concerns. Whether the one-off revenue repeats is a separate question. The company excludes it from targets, so a repeat would be upside. Our earnings day guide explains what to look for.
Looking Ahead
Strengths and Risks
5 Strengths · 5 RisksStrengths
5- Revenue rose 571% year over year to $980.8 million, beating the $907.2 million estimate by 8.1%.
- Adjusted EBITDA reached $465.8 million, a 47.5% margin, up from a $5.2 million loss a year ago.
- ARR went from $3.0 billion in June to $6.4 billion at the end of September.
- The $12-13 billion revenue target for 2027 is 3.4% above market expectations.
- On contracts won in the third quarter, prepayments cover more than all of the capex.
Risks
5- About $325 million of revenue was a one-offExcluding it, revenue was 28% below expectations.
- 2026 revenue guidance moved to the low endSome capacity slipped into the first half of 2027.
- The full-year capex target rose to about $27 billion, and the 2027 plan is $40-45 billion.
- Long-term debt is $14.0 billionConvertible notes and share sales may dilute shareholders.
- ARR guidance is being dropped, removing one metric used to track growth.
What to Watch
4- Q4 2026 earnings (~February 2027)The $3.0 billion low end of full-year revenue will be tested.
- February 2027The company's target of more than $7 billion in ARR will be tested.
- December 2026Whether contracted power reaches the 5 GW goal.
- First half of 2027Delayed third-party capacity is expected to come online.
Upcoming Earnings
To Understand This