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Overview

Visa

V · NYSEQ4 FY2026

Payment Networks · Fintech

Tuesday, October 27Next Earnings: Q1 FY27 · Tuesday, October 27
After Hours$394.54− 2.38%

Since the Report − 1.8%

Revenue grew 13.2% year over year, EPS beat the estimate by 1.2%; the stock fell 2.2% in its first reaction.

Net RevenueQ4
$12.14B
Estimate $12.09B · 0.4% Beat
EPSAdjusted
$3.48
Estimate $3.44 · 1.2% Beat
Quarterly RevenueReported · $ Billion
10.72
Q4 25
10.90
Q1 26
11.23
Q2 26
11.63
Q3 26
12.14
Q4 26
60/ 100

Verdict

HOLD

Visa beat fiscal fourth-quarter estimates by 0.4% with net revenue of $12.14 billion and by 1.2% with adjusted EPS of $3.48. Shares fell 2.2% after hours; a narrow beat gave no new reason to buy a stock already up 15.5% over the past year. The next thing to watch is the 2027 framework due on tonight's earnings call.

Avg. Analyst Target (40)$426.82At Report▲ 8.2% UpsideFrom Today's Price

Close on Report DayOct 27

$401.86▼ 2.2%Report-Day Move

Market Cap(Today)
≈ $737 B
1Y Return(At Report)
+ 16%
P/E(At Today's Price · $13.27 · Trailing 12M)
29.7
Net Margin(Trailing 12M)
50.8%

Earnings Summary

In 30 Seconds
  1. Net revenue of $12.14 billion beat estimates by 0.4%, and adjusted EPS of $3.48 beat by 1.2%.
  2. Client incentives rose 21%, outpacing net revenue, and the release gave no 2027 targets.
  3. Shares fell 2.2% after hours; a narrow beat gave no new reason to buy a stock up 15.5% in a year.

The Numbers

  • Payments Volume (Constant $)

    ▲ 9%

    Prior Period 10% · 1-Point Slowdown

  • Cross-Border Volume

    ▲ 14%

    Constant $ · Ex Intra-Europe 14%

  • Full-Year Net Revenue

    $45.9B

    ▲ 15% YoY · Adjusted EPS $13.27

  • Stock Reaction

    −2.2%

    After Hours 4:40 P.m. ET · Not Settled

Quarterly Revenue ($ Billion)

ReportedCompany Guidance

  • 10.72

    Q4 25 · $10.7 B

  • 10.90

    Q1 26 · $10.9 B · QoQ + 1.7%

  • 11.23

    Q2 26 · $11.2 B · QoQ + 3.0%

  • 11.63

    Q3 26 · $11.6 B · QoQ + 3.6%

  • 12.14

    Q4 26 · $12.1 B · QoQ + 4.3% · YoY + 13.2%

  • Q4 25
  • Q1 26
  • Q2 26
  • Q3 26
  • Q4 26
Annual Revenue Growth
▲ 13%
Other Revenue
▲ 40%$1.65B
Client Incentives
▲ 21%$5.12B · Deducted From Revenue

Q1 FY27 Company Guidance

Market Expectation
  • FY2027 EPS Expectation15.02 $

    Market Expectation $15.02In Line with Expectations ✓

Remaining Buyback Authorization
$24.4B
Quarterly Dividend
▲ 16%$0.78 · Payable December 1
BioCatch Acquisition
$2.4BClose by End of Fiscal Q2 27

Company-Specific Metrics

  • Processed Transactions

    74.2 B transactions

    ▲ 10.0% YoYPress Release

  • Client Incentives

    $5.12 B

    ▲ 21.0% YoYPress Release

  • Quarterly Share Repurchases

    $4.00 B

    Press Release

  • Remaining Buyback Authorization

    $24.4 B

    Press Release

  • Quarterly Dividend

    $0.78

    ▲ 16.0% YoYPress Release

Metrics come only from the company's own filings; each one names the document it was taken from.

From the CEORyan McInerneyCEO · Press Release
“Visa delivered a milestone year. We achieved record net revenue of $46 billion, up 15%, the strongest growth in over 15 years excluding the post-pandemic recovery and acquisitions. In 2026, we also demonstrated that whenever technology changes commerce, we move with it, we anticipate what's next, and we enable its growth as the leading hyperscaler of payments globally. The foundation of all of this is trust. As we look to 2027 and beyond, trust is the next growth vector for Visa.”
Highlighted on the Call
  • Record $46B Net Revenue
  • Trust As Next Growth Vector
  • Hyperscaler of Payments

Summary and Review

Summary

Visa's net revenue for the fiscal fourth quarter ended September rose 13% year over year to $12.14 billion. The market expected $12.09 billion; at 0.4% above, the revenue gate is in line. Adjusted EPS rose 17% to $3.48, beating the estimate by 1.2%, so the earnings gate is also in line. The company gave no guidance in the release, so the guidance gate does not count yet. Two in-line gates leave the score at 60 and the verdict at hold.

The stock closed the regular session down 0.6% at $401.86. After the 4:06 p.m. ET release, shares were down 2.2% after hours as of 4:40 p.m. ET. The market did not read this report as a surprise; it read it as confirmation. Shares had risen 15.5% over the past year and traded near their 52-week high. The after-hours price has not settled yet and may shift with the earnings call. At this price, a narrow beat was not enough to draw new buyers.

For the full year, net revenue rose 15% to $45.9 billion. CEO Ryan McInerney called it the strongest growth in more than 15 years, excluding acquisitions and the post-pandemic recovery. Client incentives, however, rose 21% and grew faster than gross revenue. Payments volume growth also slowed from 10% in the prior period to 9%. These two caveats keep the verdict at hold; the real call depends on tonight's 2027 framework.

Full Review

Transactions and cross-border volume drive revenue.

Data processing revenue was $6.25 billion, up 16% year over year. This line depends on the number of transactions on Visa's network. Processed transactions rose 10% to 74.2 billion. Payments volume grew 9% in constant dollars. Service revenue rose 14% to $5.26 billion; it is based on payments volume for the period ended in June. Volume growth in that period was 10%. International transaction revenue was $4.12 billion, up 8%. Cross-border volume grew 14% in constant dollars, but revenue from this line lagged volume. The release does not explain the gap. Other revenue rose 40% to $1.65 billion, the fastest-growing line.

Incentives are growing faster than revenue.

Visa deducts the client incentives it pays banks and partners from gross revenue. This quarter, incentives rose 21% year over year to $5.12 billion. Net revenue grew 13% over the same period. Based on the release tables, incentives equal 29.7% of gross revenue. In the same quarter a year ago, the ratio was 28.3%, so it rose 1.4 points. Rising incentives are usually the cost of new contracts and renewals. Visa is leaving partners a larger share to protect volume. In the short run, this keeps net revenue growth behind gross revenue growth. Incentive contracts are usually multi-year deals with large card issuers. So the direction of the ratio should be tracked over several quarters. If the ratio rises while volume growth slows, net revenue comes under pressure.

Profits and capital returns are strong.

Adjusted operating expenses rose 12% to $4.05 billion. With net revenue up 13%, expense growth stayed slightly behind revenue. GAAP net income rose 18% to $6.0 billion, and GAAP EPS rose 22% to $3.19. That figure includes a $469 million litigation provision, which adjusted results exclude. The company bought back $4.0 billion of stock in the quarter and $20.5 billion over the year. The average repurchase price in the quarter was $369.12. At the end of September, $24.4 billion of buyback authorization remained. The board raised the quarterly dividend 16% to $0.78. See the share buyback guide for how buybacks affect EPS.

The full year and the BioCatch deal.

In fiscal 2026, net revenue rose 15% to $45.9 billion. Adjusted EPS rose 16% to $13.27, and GAAP EPS rose 21% to $12.32. Processed transactions grew 9% over the year to 281.3 billion. For the full year, cross-border volume grew 13% and payments volume 9% in constant dollars. The company returned a total of $25.6 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. In August, Visa agreed to buy fraud-prevention firm BioCatch for $2.4 billion in cash. The deal is expected to close by the end of the second quarter of fiscal 2027. In the release, McInerney called trust Visa's next growth vector. BioCatch is the first concrete step in that story.

One ratio to watch next quarter.

The market expects fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS of $15.02. That is a 13% increase from $13.27 in 2026. The average analyst price target is $426.82, 6.2% above the closing price. The company's own target will be announced on tonight's earnings call. The revenue growth range given on the call will be compared with this expectation. Next quarter, one ratio is enough: client incentives as a share of gross revenue. It was 29.7% this quarter. If it stays below 30%, net revenue grows in line with volume. If it rises above, Visa is paying partners more to protect volume. Payments volume growth falling below 9% would also signal slowing demand. See the how to read earnings day guide.

Looking Ahead

Strengths and Risks

5 Strengths · 5 Risks

Strengths

5
  1. Net revenue rose 13% year over year to $12.14 billion, beating estimates by 0.4%.
  2. Adjusted EPS rose 17% to $3.48, 1.2% above the estimate.
  3. Cross-border volume grew 14% year over year in constant dollars.
  4. The quarterly dividend was raised 16% to $0.78.
  5. Visa bought back $20.5 billion of stock over the year, with $24.4 billion of authorization remaining.

Risks

5
  1. Client incentives rose 21%, faster than net revenue, reaching 29.7% of gross revenue.
  2. Payments volume growth slowed from 10% in the prior period to 9%.
  3. International transaction revenue grew 8%, lagging the 14% growth in cross-border volume.
  4. The quarter included a new $469 million litigation provision.
  5. The release contained no numeric targets for 2027.

What to Watch

4
  1. The earnings call is on October 27 at 5:00 p.m. ET, where 2027 targets will be announced.
  2. The raised dividend will be paid on December 1 to holders of record on November 10.
  3. The BioCatch acquisition is expected to close by the end of the second quarter of fiscal 2027.
  4. First-quarter fiscal 2027 results are expected in late January 2027.

Next EarningsQ1 FY27 · Tuesday, October 27

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To Understand This

Earnings Reports: What to Read, HowThe book opens once a quarter — and the market really only reads three lines.P/E and the Valuation RatiosYou can't tell whether a stock is cheap or expensive by looking at its price.