Overview
Since the Report + 0.5%
Revenue grew 32.7% year over year, EPS beat the estimate by 3.7%; the stock rose 1.3% in its first reaction.
- RevenueQ3
- $113.16B
- ▲ 32.7% YoY · 9.8% Above Estimate
- EPSAdjusted
- $4.23
- Estimate $4.08 · 3.7% Beat
Verdict
BUYExxon Mobil reported third-quarter revenue of $113.2B and adjusted EPS of $4.23, both above estimates. This time the profit engine was the refinery, not the well: Energy Products earnings rose fivefold in a year. The stock is near a record; the one measure to watch now is whether refining margins hold.
Close on Report DayOct 30
$185.69▲ 1.3%Report-Day Move
- Market Cap(Today)
- ≈ $768 B
- 1Y Return(At Report)
- + 62%
- P/E(At Today's Price · $11.47 · Trailing 12M)
- 16.3
- Net Margin(Trailing 12M)
- 9.1%
Earnings Summary
In 30 Seconds- Revenue of $113.2B beat estimates by 9.8%, and adjusted EPS of $4.23 beat by 3.7%.
- Refining drove the quarter: Energy Products earnings of $9.05B were five times last year's level.
- The stock rose 1.3% intraday to a record, already above the average analyst target.
The Numbers
Energy Products Earnings
$9.05B
Last Year $1.73B · Margin $50.3/bbl
Production
4.50M boe/d
▼ 5.7% YoY · Middle East Impact
Free Cash Flow
$19.11B
$9.4B Returned to Shareholders
Stock Reaction
▲ 1.3%
Intraday 12:36 ET; Update This Evening
Quarterly Revenue ($ Billion)
85.29
Q3 25 · $85.3 B
82.31
Q4 25 · $82.3 B · QoQ − 3.5%
85.14
Q1 26 · $85.1 B · QoQ + 3.4%
116
Q2 26 · $116 B · QoQ + 36.3%
113
Q3 26 · $113 B · QoQ − 2.5% · YoY + 32.7%
- Q3 25
- Q4 25
- Q1 26
- Q2 26
- Q3 26
Q4 2026 Company Guidance
- 2027 Share Buyback20 billion
2026 Pace Also $20BFlat
- Q4 Dividend1.07 $
Q3 $1.03 · 44th Annual IncreaseRaised 3.9% ▲
Company-Specific Metrics
Operating Cash Flow
$25.7 B
Press Release
Cash Capital Expenditure
$7.00 B
Press Release
Share Buybacks
$5.10 B
Press Release
Dividends Paid
$4.26 B
Press Release
Upstream Earnings
$7.31 B
▲ 29.8% YoYPress Release
Net Debt
$22.1 B
Press Release
Metrics come only from the company's own filings; each one names the document it was taken from.
“We're increasing production while improving efficiency - the result of years of consistent and disciplined investment and execution excellence. Quarter after quarter, the evidence of a stronger business builds. These are lasting improvements, not simply the result of favorable prices and margins. Markets will change, but we're positioned to continue supplying the energy and products the world needs.”
- Record Refining Earnings
- Middle East Disruption
- $20B Buyback
Summary and Review
Summary
Revenue came in at $113.2B. That is up 32.7% year over year and 9.8% above the market expectation. Adjusted EPS was $4.23 against an estimate of $4.08, a 3.7% beat. The revenue and earnings gates are open. The company gives no earnings guidance, so the third gate is not counted. Free cash flow was $19.1B. Shareholders received $9.4B.
The stock is up 1.3% since the open and touched a record $188.50 intraday. The reaction is muted because the price already sits above the average analyst target. The market did not read this report as an oil price story. It read it as a refining story. Brent averaged less than in the second quarter, but fuel margins jumped and lifted earnings.
Score 81, view buy. With two gates open, the quarter lands in the top band. Two caveats keep the score near the bottom of that band. Production fell 5.7% year over year, and the Middle East disruption continues. Refining margins are also far above their historical average. If they normalize, earnings fall back quickly. The balance sheet is strong: net debt is down about $11B this year.
Full Review
Half the profit came from refining.
The Energy Products segment earned $9.05B on an adjusted basis. In the same quarter last year it earned $1.73B. The company's indicative refining margin was $50.3 per barrel. It was $29.0 in the second quarter and $17.5 a year ago. Upstream earned $7.31B, up 30% year over year. For the first time in a long while, the refinery outearned the well. Chemical Products earned $725M and Specialty Products $1.28B. Both units grew from last year. Profit sources have broadened. But the largest line is also the most volatile one. Refining margins can halve within a few quarters. Upstream earnings respond to oil prices more slowly.
Oil got cheaper, profit still rose.
Brent averaged $97.0 per barrel in the third quarter. That compares with $104.5 in the second quarter, a 7.2% drop. A year ago it was $69.1. Exxon's realized US crude price was $84.8. Even so, adjusted earnings rose to $17.5B. EPS climbed from $3.52 in the second quarter to $4.23. The gap comes from fuel prices holding up better than crude. Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz is tightening product supply. That rewards refinery owners. Management made the same point: the improvement comes from investment, not only from prices. The Beaumont refinery expansion is one example.
Production slipped, cash stayed strong.
Total production was 4.50 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Last year it was 4.77 million, a 5.7% decline. Versus the second quarter it fell 0.4%. The company attributes the drop to the Middle East disruption and to lower Guyana entitlements at high prices. The cash picture is strong. Operating cash flow was $25.7B and capital spending $7.0B. Free cash flow reached $19.1B. Of that, $4.3B went to dividends and $5.1B to buybacks. The remaining cash went to debt reduction. The company strengthened payouts and the balance sheet at the same time. Net debt fell to $22.1B. The fourth-quarter dividend rose 3.9% to $1.07. Cash flow was more than double the amount returned.
Limited guidance, clear capital plan.
Exxon does not give quarterly earnings or revenue guidance. It sets out a capital return plan instead. The company targets $20B of share buybacks again in 2027. That matches the 2026 pace. At the current price, it equals about 2.6% of market value. On the same day it took over as operator of Papua LNG. It also agreed to raise its stakes to 34% in Papua LNG and 50% in Mozambique's Rovuma LNG. Both moves aim to grow gas supply after 2030. Analysts expect 2027 earnings 3-8% below 2026. The market is pricing in a return to normal margins. The buyback, however, shrinks the share count regardless.
One measure: the refining margin.
Next quarter, look at one line: Energy Products earnings. It was $9.05B this quarter and $1.73B a year ago. If it stays above $5B in the fourth quarter, the margin story holds. In that case the $20B annual buyback is easily funded without borrowing. If it falls below $3B, this quarter was the cycle peak. The stock would then trade more on oil prices than on average earnings. For production, the threshold is 4.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. This quarter it sat right at the line, at 4.50 million. Staying below it means the Middle East disruption persists. You can refresh how to read earnings day here.
Looking Ahead
Strengths and Risks
6 Strengths · 5 RisksStrengths
6- Energy Products earnings of $9.05B were about five times the level of a year ago.
- Free cash flow of $19.1B was more than double the $9.4B returned to shareholders.
- Net debt fell by about $11B this year to $22.1B.
- The company set a $20B share buyback target for 2027 as well.
- The fourth-quarter dividend rose 3.9% to $1.07, the 44th consecutive annual increase.
- Higher stakes in Papua LNG and Rovuma LNG expand long-term gas supply.
Risks
5- At $50.3 per barrel, the refining margin is far above its historical average and may not last.
- Production fell 5.7% year over yearVolume pressure persists while the Middle East disruption lasts.
- Guyana entitlements are shrinking faster than expected at high prices, capping Upstream earnings.
- Analysts expect 2027 earnings 3-8% below 2026, narrowing the growth base.
- At $185.69, the stock trades about 3.4% above the $179.41 average analyst target.
What to Watch
4- Q4 2026The fourth-quarter dividend of $1.07 per share will be paid.
- Q4 2026Closing of the higher stakes in Papua LNG and Rovuma LNG will be watched.
- Late January 2027Q4 earnings will show whether refining margins stay near $50.
- Through 2027The pace of the $20B share buyback program will be tracked.
Upcoming Earnings
To Understand This