Is It Too Early To Buy Adobe Stock Before Its Free Users Pay Off?

Adobe (ADBE) stock has lost about a third of its value over the past year, while the S&P 500 (SPY) gained about 18%. It has already bounced 28% in three months. Yet near $250 it still sits about 32% below its 52-week high. At current levels, multiple expansion appears largely contingent upon Adobe's ability to monetize its rapidly expanding freemium base before core top-line growth decelerates.