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ABR Rule Check

Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. · Real Estate

Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. against the rules: which it passes, where it lags and what to look at next.

Price
$2.89
Market Cap
$539 M
Next Earnings
In 3 Days

Flags First

5Rules Failed2Cautions
  • Share PriceFail
  • Quarterly Sales GrowthFail
  • Three-Year EPS GrowthFail
  • Debt / EquityFail
  • Distance from 52-Week HighFail
  • +2 More

Fit ScoreScreened Out

Hits at least one elimination rule; under this approach it stays off the research list whatever its score.

73% of Rules Measured

Company Analysis

Stock Selection Focus · Tool: Claude

Claude writes a second opinion independent of the site's own analysis; while the market is open it reads the live price.

Categories

Growth0Weight 30 · 2 of 4 Measured
Price Strength25Weight 20 · 2 of 4 Measured
Profitability100Weight 15 · 2 of 2 Measured
Financial Health67Weight 15 · 3 of 3 Measured
Ownership100Weight 10 · 3 of 3 Measured
Catalyst Signals50Weight 10 · 1 of 3 Measured

Elimination · FailShare Price

Rule by Rule

73% of Rules Measured

Elimination

3 of 3 Measured
  • Market CapAt least $300M$539 MPass
  • Share PriceAt least $5$2.89Fail
  • Liquidity500K shares and $10M traded per day on average5.00 M SharesPass

Growth

2 of 4 Measured
  • Quarterly EPS GrowthAt least 10% year over year—No Data
  • Quarterly Sales GrowthAt least 10% year over year− 2.8%Fail
  • Three-Year EPS GrowthAt least 10% annualized− 24.3%Fail
  • Source of GrowthSales should grow at least 5% while profit grows− 2.8%No Data

Profitability

2 of 2 Measured
  • ProfitabilityPositive trailing twelve-month EPS$0.26Pass
  • MarginsGross, operating and net margins positive2.2%Pass

Financial Health

3 of 3 Measured
  • Current RatioAt least 1 — current assets cover current liabilities251.64Pass
  • Debt / EquityAt most 1; above 2 fails3.99Fail
  • Cash RunwayPositive free cash flow or at least two years of cash—Pass

Price Strength

2 of 4 Measured
  • Versus the MarketSix-month return not behind the S&P 500—No Data
  • Versus Its SectorSix-month return not behind the sector fund—No Data
  • Distance from 52-Week LowAt least 30% above the low14.2%Caution
  • Distance from 52-Week HighAt most 25% below the high75.8%Fail

Ownership

3 of 3 Measured
  • DilutionShare count up at most 2% a year− 3.0%Pass
  • Famous Fund InterestAmong tracked funds, adders not outnumbered by trimmers1 FundsPass
  • Insider ActivityNo heavy net selling over six months+39Pass

Catalyst Signals

1 of 3 Measured
  • Analyst TrendShare of buy ratings rising over three months− 8.3 PtsCaution
  • Upside to TargetAt least 10% to the average target—No Data
  • Quality of the Last ReportEarnings analysis score of at least 60—No Data

In each lane the line is the rule's threshold, the dot is the stock's value and the bar between them is the gap. Market cap, price and volume use a log scale: one step is ten times. A value beyond the end sits at the edge as an open dot.

Rule Bench

45ScoreScreened Out
  • 9Passed
  • 2Caution
  • 5Failed
  • 6No Data
ABR

Each lamp is a rule: green passed, amber caution, red failed, grey no data. Tap a station to see its rules.

Weaknesses

  • Share price of $2.89, below $5; hits the elimination rule.
  • Sales changed − 2.8% year over year last quarter, below the 10% floor.
  • Three-year EPS growth of − 24.3% a year, below the 10% floor.
  • Debt to equity of 3.99; a heavy debt load.
  • The price is 75.8% below its 52-week high.
  • The price is close to its 52-week low, only 14.2% above it.
  • The share of buy ratings fell 8.3 points in three months.

Strengths

  • Market cap of $539 M, comfortably above the size floor.
  • About 5.00 M shares trade a day; positions open and close easily.
  • Earned $0.26 per share over the last twelve months.
  • Gross, operating and net margins are all positive; operating margin 2.2%.
  • Current ratio of 251.64; short-term obligations are well covered.
  • Free cash flow is positive; the company funds itself.
  • Share count changed − 3.0% in a year; ownership is preserved.
  • 1 tracked famous funds hold it and interest is not fading.
  • Net insider buying over the last six months.

Next Steps

  1. The stock is far from its high. Do not treat it as cheap before finding why it fell (results, competition, sector); wait for the price to confirm a turn.
  2. Earnings in 3 days. The result can move the price sharply; account for that risk.
  3. Write down the concrete reason for growth: a new product, a contract, management or an industry shift. If you cannot say it in one sentence, waiting may be the better choice.

What You Should Check

  1. Is there a concrete reason for growth, and can you say it in one sentence?
  2. Where does the valuation sit against sector peers?
  3. Does the chart confirm the trend, or are you fighting a falling price?
  4. Is the position size within the loss you could bear if you are wrong?

The score averages the measurable rules with category weights: growth 30, price strength 20, profitability 15, health 15, ownership 10, catalysts 10. A pass counts in full, a caution half; rules we cannot measure stay out. A stock that hits an elimination rule is capped at 45. Growth above 300% counts as a base effect and is marked as a caution.

Sources: prices from Alpaca, fundamentals and analyst ratings from Finnhub, share counts from SEC filings, famous funds from 13F reports, targets and report scores from the site's own analyses.

This is not investment advice; it is a research tool that measures fit with the rules.

Alpaca · SIPUpdated October 26 19:00 NY15 Minutes DelayedMay Be Out Of Date

To Understand This

P/E and the Valuation RatiosYou can't tell whether a stock is cheap or expensive by looking at its price.Risk Management: How Much, WhenThe one skill that decides not whether you win, but whether you stay in the game.