US-China Trade Truce Extended to January, but Not Yet in Writing

On Wednesday evening in Washington, a date changed.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News that the US-China trade truce had been extended by two months: "We will extend what we call the Busan Agreement."

A few minutes later, Xi Jinping's plane landed at Joint Base Andrews. The Chinese president's first US state visit in 11 years had begun.

What Was Extended Is Not One Agreement

The Busan truce is the name for the understanding Trump and Xi reached in South Korea on October 30, 2025. It is not one signed text. It is a set of suspensions, published separately in two capitals, each with its own end date.

On the US side there are two documents. The Commerce Department's BIS suspended for one year the rule that extends export bans to affiliates of blacklisted companies. The US Trade Representative (USTR) paused port fees on China-linked vessels.

On the Chinese side, the Commerce Ministry suspended six rare earth and critical mineral restrictions announced on October 9, 2025. In return for US concessions, Beijing also made purchase commitments such as soybeans.

The truce looks like a single date.

It is really four separate clocks.

A Statement or an Action

Bessent's sentence is a statement of intent. The instrument that would make the extension binding is not visible as of this writing. We found no new text in the Federal Register or on the Chinese Commerce Ministry's website.

Why that matters sits in the BIS document itself. It says the suspension ends on November 9, and then adds a condition: "absent a future extension."

So nobody has to act when the time runs out. The rule returns automatically on November 10. Extending it requires a new notice.

In the same interview, Bessent hinted at why two months were chosen: "There are some deliverables that have not been perfect on the Chinese side."

According to Reuters, China is meeting its 25-million-ton annual soybean commitment but lags on $17B of other farm purchases. The Council on Foreign Relations reports the administration believes only two-thirds of the rare earth commitments have been met.

How the 50% Rule Works

The suspended rule is the broadest tool in export controls. It targets not the blacklisted companies themselves, but the companies they own.

The rule's reach comes from aggregation. Small stakes, added together, can bring thousands of affiliates into scope.

Asia Times reports that Aivres exported $5.6B of technology between April 2024 and February 2026. That included more than $3B of Nvidia Blackwell servers. The case shows what a 50% threshold catches and what it misses.

For Chip Equipment, the Math Is Concrete

One company put its own number on the rule. Applied Materials told the SEC in a September 29, 2025 filing that the rule would cut its fiscal 2026 revenue by about $600M.

The suspension removed that loss. If the rule returns on November 10, the same calculation reopens. It would also land in the first weeks of Applied Materials' fiscal 2027.

At Nvidia, the picture is different. The company's guidance for this quarter assumes no data center revenue from China (latest earnings analysis). According to press accounts, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said advanced chip export controls were not on the summit agenda.

So the truce's key chip item is not Nvidia's sales. It is the China customer list of the equipment makers.

How Markets Read the Extension

Asia did not greet the news warmly on Thursday morning. The Shanghai Composite fell about 1%, Shenzhen fell 2.3% and the Hang Seng fell 0.6-0.75%. The Chinese yuan also weakened.

The Nikkei rose 1.3-1.65%. But Tokyo was returning from a three-day holiday; press accounts attribute the gain to catching up on the days it was closed.

Tying the moves to one headline would also be wrong. At the same hours, the US 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.13%, a 19-year high, and weighed on regional stocks (How Rates and Bonds Work).

The chart is only a frame; on its own it does not show the truce's effect on the price.

What Is Left

Bessent laid out two paths: a bigger package by January 10, or one more rollover of the current terms. The leaders are expected to meet again in China in November and in Florida in December.

What to watch in between is not statements but notices. The extension becomes an action when BIS, USTR and China's Commerce Ministry publish texts with the new date.

This article draws on the BIS Federal Register notice of November 12, 2025, the USTR suspension announcement of November 2025 and Applied Materials' SEC filing of September 29, 2025. It also uses the Pillsbury law firm's summary of the suspended Chinese measures and Reuters, NBC News, Al Jazeera and FXStreet reports of Bessent's September 23 remarks. Farm and rare earth compliance figures are press accounts citing administration sources; the Aivres figures are as reported by Asia Times. Asian index figures differ slightly across sources and are given as ranges.