TSMC Posts Record October Sales as a Weaker Taiwan Dollar Lifts Margins

TSMC reported October revenue of NT$586.9 billion on November 10. That is up 14.7% from September and 59.7% from October last year.

The next day the stock rose 4.81% in Taipei to close at NT$2,395 (about $73). The Taiex gained 3.62% to 44,257, and TSMC alone added roughly 880 points to the index.

A quarterly dividend of NT$9 per share, approved by the board the same day, also supported buying. The previous quarter's payout was NT$7.

How TSMC's October Sales Set a Record

The previous 2026 high was August's NT$514.8 billion. October beat it by about 14%, taking January-October sales to NT$4.49 trillion, up 43.3% year over year.

The source of demand is clear. On October 15 TSMC reported third-quarter revenue of $46.7 billion and a 66.4% gross margin, with 79% of revenue from 7-nanometer and more advanced processes.

On AI demand that day, CEO C.C. Wei said: "We did not see any sign of slowdown." The company guided fourth-quarter revenue to $52.3 billion to $54.3 billion.

The record landed in a week of heavy chip selling. The S&P 500 fell 4.4% on November 5, and the Nasdaq 100 fund below carries that volatility over the past month:

Foreigners Sold as the Taiwan Dollar Weakened

Central bank Governor Yang Chin-long said on November 10 that foreign institutions had moved about $10 billion out of Taiwan since the start of November. October outflows were about $28 billion, and the Taiwan dollar lost 1.93% that month.

Even on November 11, when the Taiex jumped 3.62%, foreign investors were net sellers of NT$766 million on the main board. The currency closed at 32.86 per dollar, while TSMC's guidance assumed 31.8.

At first glance, foreign outflows look like bad news for TSMC. In the accounts, they work in its favor.

How the Currency Moves Revenue and Margin

TSMC sells its chips largely in dollars but pays a large share of its costs in Taiwan dollars. As the currency weakens, the same dollar sales convert into more Taiwan dollars while costs stay put.

Dollar growth is still strong, but part of the 59.7% rise in Taiwan-dollar terms comes from the exchange rate. The Taiwan dollar had fallen 3.23% against the dollar from January 1 to October 21.

Where October's Pace Lands in the Guidance

Multiply October's $17.9 billion by three months and you get $53.7 billion. That sits above the midpoint of the guidance range and below the top end.

Reaching the midpoint needs only $17.7 billion a month in November and December. The top end needs about $18.2 billion a month. Monthly sales are volatile, so one month settles nothing, but a third of the quarter is already booked.

TSMC was not alone in lifting Asia. The Kospi rose 2.4% and SK Hynix 5.4% the same day, a move sources partly tied to CoreWeave's earnings.

What It Means for Investors

• Taipei priced in the record sales and the higher dividend; with foreigners still net sellers, the buying behind the rally did not come from abroad.
• TSMC's growing sales show customers such as Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom are still ordering; Nvidia's November 17 earnings will test that demand.
• The threshold to watch is November sales: above $17.7 billion points to the guidance midpoint, above $18.2 billion to the top end.
• The risk to the thesis is the currency: if central bank intervention pulls the Taiwan dollar back to 31.8, the margin tailwind disappears. More: Currency Risk.

Sales data come from TSMC's November 10 SEC Form 6-K filing; guidance and margins from its October 15 third-quarter release. Taiex, currency and foreign-flow data were compiled from Focus Taiwan. Dollar figures use a rate of about 32.8; the currency sensitivity is the company's general rule, not an October-specific disclosure.