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Probabilities

What markets price for the Fed, the midterms and a recession.

Market prices put the odds of a hold at the October 28 Fed meeting at 91%; Democrats winning the House at 90% and the Senate at 65%.

A probability is not a certainty: an event priced at 70% fails to happen three times out of ten.

Market ProbabilitiesUpdated 02:07 NYDaily

The Fed's Next Decision

October 28 · 14:00 NY
Hover over or tap the line to read that day's probabilities here.
Current Target Range
3.75% - 4.00%
To the Decision
Tomorrow
See in Calendar

2026 Midterm Elections

November 3 · 7 Days Left

House

Hover over or tap the line to read that day's probabilities here.

Senate

Hover over or tap the line to read that day's probabilities here.

US Recession in 2027

Hover over or tap the line to read that day's probabilities here.

Recessions Since 1980

6 Recessions · 10 Months on Average

The NBER dates the start of a recession; the call can come months later. Source: NBER.

Expected Rate Path

Current Range 3.75% - 4.00%
  1. 3.88%
    Today
  2. 3.89%
    Oct 28
  3. 4.09%
    Dec 9
  4. 4.17%
    Jan 27
  5. 4.30%
    Mar 17
  6. 4.36%
    Apr 28
  7. 4.44%
    Jun 9

Each meeting's probabilities come from its own contract; the expected level adds each meeting's expected change to the midpoint of today's target range. Moves larger than 25 bp are counted as 50. Faded columns trade thinly; their probabilities are indicative.

Next Monthly Inflation

October CPI · Out November 10
  1. Above 0.1%91%
  2. Above 0.2%42%
  3. Above 0.3%22%
  4. Above 0.4%6%

The market's middle estimate: about 0.18% month over month. Each step is a separate contract: the probability that monthly CPI change exceeds that threshold.

What These Numbers Are

Not Investment Advice.

  • Price = Probability

    A contract paying $1 if the event happens that trades at $0.63 prices it at about 63%.

  • Regulated Market

    Public prices of a CFTC-regulated US event market. Opening Bell adds no forecast.

  • Not Betting

    No trading or betting links on this page. Betting sites are banned in Türkiye.

  • Colors

    Here red is a party color, not a fall.

On a prediction market a "Yes" contract pays $1 if the event happens. If it trades at $0.63, the market is putting roughly a 63% chance on the event. Prices of mutually exclusive outcomes are scaled to add up to 1.

Probabilities are read from the public prices of a CFTC-regulated US event contracts market. Opening Bell adds no forecast of its own and Claude does not produce these numbers.

This page only shows the probability read from prices. It carries no trading or betting links and steers no one to trade; betting sites are banned in Türkiye and these platforms are blocked there.

Thinly traded markets carry a "Thin Trading" tag; if trading is very thin they are not shown. Probabilities are taken once a day; hourly on election night and around the Fed's decision.

Colors: parties follow the US convention, Democrats blue and Republicans red; this red is a different shade from the site's down color. The Fed decision avoids direction colors: cuts are purple, a hold is blue, hikes are brass.

First polls close: 18:00 NY · November 4 02:00 TR

Market ProbabilitiesUpdated 02:07 NYDaily

To Understand This

Hawks and Doves: Reading the Fed's LanguageThe rate decision itself is rarely the surprise; the surprise lives in the sentences around it.Rates, Bonds and the Yield CurveThe number that moves the stock market most isn't set in the stock market — it's set in bonds.Inflation Data: CPI, Core and PCEWhy a number published once a month reprices every asset there is.