ASML Posts Record Sales, Says It Can't Meet Machine Demand Through 2028

ASML published third-quarter results this morning at 7:00 a.m. Dutch time. Sales rose to €11.66B, or $13.07B at the October 14 rate of $1 = €0.8924.

Net income came in at $5.56B, up 70% from the previous quarter. Gross margin of 57.5% landed above the company's own 55–57% range.

The most important sentence in the release contains no figure. ASML wrote that its planned supply for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet customer demand.

Guidance Beat Expectations, Sales Did Not

Analysts polled by LSEG expected fourth-quarter sales of $15.9B and a gross margin of 55.4%. ASML guided to $15.9B–$17.0B and 57%; even the low end sits above consensus.

The full-year sales target narrowed to $49.3B–$50.4B, with the low end raised by €1B. The full-year gross margin target is now 56%.

Quarterly sales, by contrast, were in line. They came in $50M below the consensus compiled by Koyfin and slightly above other tallies. Earnings per share of $14.51 beat expectations by roughly 20%.

Demand Has Outrun Capacity

Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet said July's plan will fall short. "30% in 2027, 30% in 2028 will not allow us to meet our customer demand."

ASML expects to ship around 65 EUV machines this year, more than 50% above 2025. A 30% increase means roughly 85 machines in 2027. Some customers already want to place orders for 2029 and 2030.

Last week Broadcom and Intel argued that capital, not chips, limits AI (that story). ASML, at the very start of the same chain, pointed to a different limit: the capacity to build the machines.

How a Capacity Limit Turns Into Pricing

According to Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen, value-based pricing talks with customers are complete. The effect will not show in 2026; it starts partly in 2027 and fully from 2028.

These ratios are an illustration of the mechanism, not prices ASML disclosed. The same logic applies to the 10% spare-parts price increase reportedly imposed on Korean customers earlier this month. Service and parts revenue from installed machines reached $3.69B this quarter, beating guidance by $450M.

The Stock Moved Both Ways

Results came after the New York close. The US-listed shares ended October 13 down 1.86% at $1,717.76 and slipped around 3% in overnight trading.

In Amsterdam, Tradegate quotes pointed to a 0.6% lower open. Instead, the stock rose 1.6–1.8% in early trading, and Europe's technology sector gained 0.8%.

Chip stocks came into these results on a six-session losing streak. The company at the start of the chain spoke of excess demand in the same week its customers' shares were falling.

The chart counts back from today; it does not show that a single earnings report set the direction.

The Part That Does Not Fit

ASML no longer discloses order figures, so the strength of demand rests on management's words. China makes up around 20% of sales this year. Fouquet also warned that overly broad export restrictions could accelerate domestic alternatives such as Huawei.

The capacity claim also depends on customers finding capital. Machine demand reflects customers' current investment plans; if those plans cannot be financed, the queue gets shorter.

What It Means for Investors

• Amsterdam priced in the guidance beat; the pricing effect that starts in 2027 has not yet been given a dollar figure.
• If machines are the bottleneck, capital budgets at TSMC, Samsung and SK Hynix turn into ASML sales, and Applied Materials, Lam Research and KLA draw on the same budgets.
• The figure TSMC gives for 2027 capital spending on October 15 will be the first test of ASML's demand claim.
• The risk that would break the thesis is customers failing to raise capital and pushing back orders; with no order data, that would show first in management's tone.

This story draws on ASML's October 14 third-quarter release, same-day Reuters reports (via Euronext and Investing.com), the earnings call transcript published by Investing.com, and reports from Benzinga and Stocktwits. Dollar figures use the $1 = €0.8924 rate cited by Reuters. Consensus figures vary by provider; LSEG and Koyfin are named separately. Machine counts rest on management's call remarks and broker reports.