Overview
Wells Fargo
WFC · NYSEQ3 2026Financials · Banking
Since the Report + 2.4%
Revenue grew 2.0% year over year, EPS beat the estimate by 1.1%; the stock fell 3.1% in its first reaction.
- RevenueQ3
- $21.87B
- Expectation $22.31B · 2.0% Below
- EPSGAAP
- $1.87
- Expectation $1.85 · Beat by 1.1%
Verdict
HOLDWells Fargo landed in line on all three tests: revenue 2.0% below the estimate, EPS 1.1% above it, and full-year NII guidance maintained; score 52, view hold. The stock closed down 3.1% on the revenue miss and a late-September slowdown in trading. The one number to watch next is the roughly $13 billion of NII promised for the fourth quarter.
Close on Report DayOct 13
$80.74▼ 3.1%Report-Day Move
- Market Cap(Today)
- ≈ $248 B
- 1Y Return(At Report)
- + 2%
- P/E(At Today's Price · $7.09 · Trailing 12M)
- 11.7
- PEG(Next Year Estimate)
- 0.99
- Net Margin(Trailing 12M)
- 22.2%
Earnings Summary
In 30 Seconds- Revenue of $21.87B came in 2.0% below the estimate, while GAAP EPS of $1.87 beat it by 1.1%.
- Full-year guidance of about $50B in NII and $55.7B in expenses was maintained, with fourth-quarter NII seen near $13B.
- The stock closed down 3.1% because trading gains fell 21% and a one-time tax benefit carried the EPS beat.
The Numbers
Net Interest Income (NII)
$12.52B
▲ 5% Year Over Year
ROTCE
16.3%
Q3 25: 15.2% · Up 1.1 Points
Stock Reaction
−3.1%
Close to Close · $80.74
Full-Year NII Guidance
~$50B
Maintained · Q4 ~$13B
Quarterly Revenue ($ Billion)
21.44
Q3 25 · $21.4 B
21.29
Q4 25 · $21.3 B · QoQ − 0.7%
21.45
Q1 26 · $21.4 B · QoQ + 0.7%
22.62
Q2 26 · $22.6 B · QoQ + 5.5%
21.87
Q3 26 · $21.9 B · QoQ − 3.3% · YoY + 2.0%
- Q3 25
- Q4 25
- Q1 26
- Q2 26
- Q3 26
Q4 2026 Company Guidance
- Full-Year NII50 billion
Approximately · Nine Months $36.93BIn Line ✓
- Q4 NII13 billion
Approximately · Q3 $12.52B · Margin Seen StableUp 3.9% Sequentially ▲
- Full-Year Noninterest Expense55.7 billion
Approximately · Nine Months $41.73BIn Line ✓
Segment and KPI Data
Revenue by Segment
- Consumer Banking and Lending$10.7 BShare 46.3%▲ 5.0% YoY
- Corporate and Investment Banking$5.01 BShare 21.8%▲ 3.0% YoY
- Wealth and Investment Management$4.10 BShare 17.8%▲ 12.0% YoY
Client assets of $2.74 trillion
- Commercial Banking$3.24 BShare 14.1%▲ 6.0% YoY
Key Metrics
Average Loans
$1.03 T
▲ 11.0% YoYPress Release
Average Deposits
$1.48 T
▲ 11.0% YoYPress Release
Provision for Credit Losses
$1.03 B
▲ 51.0% YoYPress Release
CET1 Ratio
10.0%
Press Release
Net Interest Margin
2.4%
Press Release
Efficiency Ratio
63.0%
Press Release
Net Loan Charge-off Rate
0.4%
Press Release
Shares Repurchased
28.6 M shares
Press Release
Shares are computed over the segment total: $23.0 B. The segment total differs from consolidated revenue ($21.9 B); the company's eliminations and other lines are not in this table. Source: Press Release.
Metrics come only from the company's own filings; each one names the document it was taken from.
“Our third quarter results reflect broad-based growth, higher earnings, and stronger returns. Expenses declined from a year ago even though revenue-related expenses increased 15%.”
- Broad-based Growth, Stronger Returns
- Expenses Down As Revenue Grows
- Vigilance on Economic Risks
Summary and Review
Summary
Wells Fargo reported third-quarter revenue of $21.87 billion. The market expectation was $22.31 billion; the 2.0% gap sits right at the edge of the in-line band. GAAP EPS was $1.87, beating the $1.85 expectation by 1.1%. Full-year guidance of about $50 billion in NII and $55.7 billion in expenses was maintained. With all three tests in line, the band is 50-64 hold; score 52. Revenue grew 2.0% and EPS 13% year over year.
The stock closed the day down 3.1% at $80.74; at the intraday low of $80.31 it was down 3.6%. The market did not read this report as a growth story. Trading gains fell 21% year over year, and management said client activity slowed in late September. The EPS beat was also low quality. Without a one-time $170 million tax benefit, EPS would have been about $1.81. Credit provisions rose 51% to $1.03 billion.
Underneath, the picture is sturdier than the headline. Combined revenue of the four operating segments grew 5.7% year over year. The headline was dragged down by the Corporate line, which turned negative on venture capital losses and the sold rail car leasing business. ROTCE of 16.3% is 1.1 points above last year and approaching management's 17-18% target. Still, revenue is borderline and CET1 sits at the floor of its target range at 10.0%. Those two reservations keep the score in the lower half of the band.
Full Review
Revenue was borderline, but the segments are growing.
Total revenue rose 2.0% year over year to $21.87 billion and fell 3.3% from the second quarter. Net interest income (NII) rose 5% to $12.52 billion. Noninterest income slipped 1% to $9.35 billion. The real divergence shows up in the segment table. Wealth and Investment Management grew 12%, Commercial Banking 6%, and Consumer Banking and Lending 5%. Corporate and Investment Banking managed 3%. Together the four segments reached $23.0 billion, up 5.7% year over year. The Corporate line explains the gap. Its revenue was a positive $176 million a year ago and turned to a negative $610 million this quarter. The causes were weak venture capital results, the sale of the rail car leasing business, and lower rates hitting internal funds pricing. In short, headline revenue looks weaker than the true pace of the client businesses.
Trading hit the brakes in late September.
Trading gains fell 21% year over year to $1.11 billion. Inside Corporate and Investment Banking, fixed income, currencies and commodities (FICC) revenue dropped 7%. Equities grew 21%, yet total Markets revenue still declined 1%. As reported from the earnings call, client activity slowed markedly in late September after a sudden jump in rates. The banking side held up well. Investment banking fees rose 10%. Management said M&A revenue grew 30%. Equity capital markets and investment-grade underwriting fees each rose 33%. A meaningful part of the revenue miss came from the trading desk. For now it looks cyclical rather than structural. If it persists into the fourth quarter, however, estimates will come down.
Tax and buybacks are behind the EPS beat.
GAAP EPS rose 13% year over year to $1.87. Net income applicable to common stock grew only 6.8%, to $5.70 billion. Buybacks close the gap. Diluted average shares fell 5% in a year to 3.05 billion. This quarter alone, 28.6 million shares were repurchased for $2.5 billion. The second lift came from taxes. Resolving prior-period matters produced a one-time $170 million tax benefit. That is worth about $0.06 per share. Without it, EPS of $1.81 would have been 2.2% below the expectation. Credit provisions also rose to $1.03 billion from $681 million. The bank attributes this to loan growth; the commercial net charge-off rate still rose to 0.18% from 0.10% in the second quarter. We explain how buybacks lift per-share earnings in our buyback guide.
Guidance held, but the capital cushion got thinner.
Management kept full-year NII guidance at about $50 billion. Nine-month NII came to $36.93 billion. Hitting the target needs about $13 billion in the final quarter, and management gave exactly that number. That implies a 3.9% increase from the third quarter. Net interest margin was 2.43%, flat sequentially and 0.18 points lower than a year ago. Expense guidance is $55.7 billion; $41.73 billion was spent in nine months. The efficiency ratio of 63% improved 2 points from last year but worsened 3 points from the second quarter. Headcount fell 8% year over year. On capital, CET1 fell to 10.0%, from 10.3% in the second quarter and 11.0% a year ago. Management keeps its 10-10.5% target range. That signals less room for buybacks ahead.
Fourth-quarter NII is the number that changes the story.
The Wells Fargo thesis now rests on growth and returns. Average loans and deposits each grew 11% year over year. Nine-month ROTCE rose to 16.2%, approaching management's 17-18% target. Yet the stock has returned only 2.3% over the past year. The average target of 26 analysts is $98.73, implying 22.3% upside. Reaching it depends on the revenue engine accelerating again. The portable rule is simple. If fourth-quarter NII hits $13 billion, the $50 billion full-year target is met. That leaves a strong starting base for 2027. If NII stalls at $12.7 billion, the year lands at $49.6 billion. Then this quarter's revenue miss stops looking like an accident. We explain how to read price targets in our valuation guide.
Looking Ahead
Strengths and Risks
6 Strengths · 6 RisksStrengths
6- Combined revenue of the four operating segments grew 5.7% year over year, led by Wealth and Investment Management at 12%.
- GAAP EPS rose 13% year over year to $1.87 and beat the $1.85 expectation by 1.1%.
- ROTCE of 16.3% is 1.1 points above last year and approaching management's 17-18% target.
- Average loans and deposits grew 11% year over yearManagement said full-year loan growth will exceed its earlier outlook.
- Investment banking fees rose 10%, and M&A revenue grew 30%.
- Nonperforming assets fell $585 million from the prior quarter, and their ratio to loans dropped to 0.70%.
Risks
6- Revenue was 2.0% below the $22.31 billion expectationThat is the very edge of the in-line band, close to a closed test.
- Trading gains fell 21% year over year, and management said client activity slowed in late September.
- A one-time $170 million tax benefit carried the EPS beatWithout it EPS would have been about $1.81.
- Credit provisions rose 51% year over year to $1.03 billion, and the commercial charge-off rate climbed to 0.18%.
- CET1 of 10.0% sits at the floor of the target range and 1.0 point below last year, narrowing buyback room.
- Net interest margin of 2.43% is 0.18 points below last year as lower rates pressure floating-rate assets.
What to Watch
3- ~November 2026Third-quarter 10-Q filing, when preliminary CET1 and balance sheet figures become final.
- ~January 2027Fourth-quarter results test the roughly $13 billion NII and $55.7 billion full-year expense outlook.
- ~January 2027Management gives its 2027 NII and expense guidance, as it does every January.
Upcoming Earnings
To Understand This