What Happened Last Week · What Is Coming This Week
Hot Payrolls Put a Fed Hike Back on the Table as Oil Jumps 9.5%
Last Week
Two stories set the tone: the running U.S.-Iran conflict around the Strait of Hormuz, and Friday's August employment report. Crude ended the week at $91.31, up 9.51%, its strongest weekly gain since July, and energy was the best-performing sector of the week. August nonfarm payrolls, released Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET (3:30 p.m. in Istanbul), came in at 162,000 against expectations near 55,000 and a trailing twelve-month average of 31,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%. Within a single session the market-implied odds of a September rate increase moved from roughly 50% to the 59-65% range; Governor Christopher Waller's midweek argument for giving disinflation a chance had briefly pulled those odds back after Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole message. In rates, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 6 basis points to 4.78%, while the 2-year and 5-year both printed 52-week highs.
