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Aug 24 - Aug 28Written by: Claude
What Happened Last Week · What Is Coming This Week
Nvidia's Blowout Meets a Hawkish Fed at Jackson Hole
Last Week
Jackson Hole set the tone: on Friday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation is still running above the 2% target, argued that price stability should be the central bank's predominant focus, and warned the Fed would "have work to do" if policymakers lacked confidence inflation was returning to target — markets read it as a hike signal, and CME-implied odds of a September increase climbed to 46% from 35% on Thursday, with some estimates putting them above 50%.
The two-year Treasury yield rose 6.6 basis points to 4.29%, a one-month high, while the 10-year held flat at 4.672% and the dollar index added 0.4% to 99.55.
Warsh also said the enormous capital pouring into AI infrastructure is adding to near-term price pressure, and made the case for a "quieter Fed" that offers less forward guidance.
On the data side, Wednesday's July core PCE held at 3.3% year over year with the monthly pace ticking up to 0.2% from 0.1% in June; headline PCE came in hotter than expected at 3.7%, and second-quarter GDP growth was left unrevised at 1.5% even as consumer spending was revised up to 3.4%.
A total of 149 companies reported during the week, but Nvidia set the tone: results released after Wednesday's close showed revenue up 106% year over year to $96.2B against a $93.6B estimate, data center revenue up 117% to $89.0B, and adjusted EPS of $2.22 versus the $2.13 consensus, with third-quarter guidance of $108B that assumes no data center compute revenue from China at all.
The stock rose 8.7% on Thursday, its best day since April, lifting the market value toward $5.5T.
Salesforce reported the same evening with adjusted EPS of $5.90 — far above the $3.31 estimate, though $2.53 of it came from investment gains — revenue up 11% to $11.35B, raised full-year guidance and a new "Claudeforce" partnership with Anthropic; the shares jumped 22% on Thursday, their second-best day ever.
CrowdStrike beat the $0.30 estimate with $0.31 in adjusted EPS on $1.47B of revenue, grew annual recurring revenue 25% to $5.84B, and posted the largest single-day gain in its history.
Marvell followed after Thursday's close with record revenue of $2.74B, up 37% year over year, adjusted EPS of $0.94 in line with consensus, data center revenue up 46% and third-quarter guidance of $3.15B; the stock slipped after hours following a steep run-up into the print. Intuit fell roughly 11% premarket on soft guidance despite beating the $3.65 estimate, and Synopsys also drifted lower after hours even after clearing its $3.74 estimate.
The sharpest move outside earnings belonged to PayPal, which dropped 13% on Friday after Stripe and Advent walked away from a takeover approach worth more than $50B.
The indexes finished higher but by a thin margin and with a split beneath the surface: measured between the two Friday closes, DIA gained 0.53%, SPY 0.47% and QQQ 0.42%, while small-cap IWM fell 1.40% — news sources put the S&P 500 at 0.49%, the Dow at 0.53% and the Nasdaq Composite at 0.85%.
It was a full five-session week with no holiday, and the shape of it suggests the AI earnings bid was just enough to offset what rising hike odds took out of small caps.
This Week
The week opens with a handover at Apple: the change announced in April takes effect on Tuesday, September 1, with Tim Cook becoming executive chairman and John Ternus taking over as chief executive.
With Warsh's speech still on the table, the payrolls report is the week's swing factor — August nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate land Friday, September 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET (3:30 p.m. in Istanbul); July showed payrolls falling by 23,000 and unemployment at 4.1%.
Ahead of that, Tuesday brings the ISM manufacturing index and July JOLTS openings, Wednesday brings ADP private payrolls and the Fed's Beige Book, and Thursday brings weekly jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. ET (3:30 p.m. in Istanbul) followed by ISM services.
On the earnings side, 180 companies report; the center of gravity is Broadcom after Wednesday's close (EPS estimate $3.30, revenue estimate $29.9B), a second read on AI spending following Nvidia.
Palo Alto Networks ($0.99), Dell Technologies ($5.01) and MongoDB ($1.62) report after Tuesday's close, with Medtronic ($1.40) premarket the same day.
Wednesday also brings Snowflake ($0.46), Hewlett Packard Enterprise ($0.94) and NetApp ($2.16), with Ciena ($1.76) reporting premarket on Thursday.
Off the economic calendar, Tesla holds its Cybercab launch event in Austin on Thursday.
There is no holiday this week; trading opens Monday, August 31 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
The week-ahead section is a calendar, not a forecast: it says what will be released, not what the numbers will be.
