Overview
AST SpaceMobile
ASTS · NASDAQQ3 2026Space & Telecom · Direct-to-Cell Satellite Broadband
Since the Report − 0.7%
Revenue grew 187.1% year over year, EPS missed the estimate by 10.0%; the stock fell 0.7% in its first reaction.
- RevenueQ3
- $42.3M
- ▲ 187% YoY 7.4% Below Estimate
- EPSGAAP
- −$0.44
- Estimate −$0.40 · 10% Wider Loss
Verdict
SELLAST SpaceMobile grew third-quarter revenue 187% to $42.3 million but came in 7.4% below estimates, and its loss per share was 10% wider than expected. Because the stock had jumped 14% intraday on the Rakuten joint venture, it slipped only 0.7% after hours. Next, watch the year-end service launch and the annual target, which needs at least $61.4 million of fourth-quarter revenue.
Close on Report DayNov 9
$36.89▼ 0.7%Report-Day Move
- Market Cap(Today)
- ≈ $14.3 B
- 1Y Return(At Report)
- − 46%
- Net Margin(Trailing 12M)
- − 536.7%
Earnings Summary
In 30 Seconds- Revenue grew 187% to $42.3 million but missed estimates by 7.4%; the loss was 10% wider than expected.
- The company kept its $150-200 million annual target; the low end needs $61.4 million in the fourth quarter.
- The stock rose 14% intraday on the Rakuten news and slipped only 0.7% after hours.
The Numbers
BlueBirds in Orbit
12 Satellites
1 Launch in Quarter · BB11 – 13
Total Cash
$3.23B
Including Restricted Cash
Japan Funding
~$1.0B
Non-Dilutive · with Rakuten
Stock Reaction
▼ 0.7%
After Hours · 8:00 P.m. ET · $36.62
Quarterly Revenue ($ Million)
14.74
Q3 25 · $14.7 M
54.31
Q4 25 · $54.3 M · QoQ + 268.4%
14.74
Q1 26 · $14.7 M · QoQ − 72.9%
31.52
Q2 26 · $31.5 M · QoQ + 113.9%
42.32
Q3 26 · $42.3 M · QoQ + 34.3% · YoY + 187.1%
61–111
Q4 26E · 61–111 · QoQ + 104.2% · YoY + 59.1%
- Q3 25
- Q4 25
- Q1 26
- Q2 26
- Q3 26
- Q4 26E
Q4 2026 Company Guidance
- Full-Year Revenue150 – 200 million150 million200 million
Midpoint 175 · $88.6M Booked in Nine MonthsIn Line ✓
- Q4 Capital Expenditures400 – 500 million400 million500 million
Q3 About $310M · Earnings Call45% Increase ▲
- Monthly Production (December)6 sats
Custom-Chip Satellites · From BlueBird 34
How to Read the Chart
The blue band is the company's low-high range; its length shows how much room the company left itself. The black triangle and the line beneath it mark where the market expected, and the notch in the band is the range's midpoint. The triangle appears only where a market expectation is known. When the company gave a single number rather than a range and no market expectation is known, that row gets no band at all: there is no length to measure and no position to compare. Axis is ±16% around the midpoint.
Segment and KPI Data
Revenue by Segment
- Service Revenue$21.8 MShare 51.4%▲ 211.0% YoY
Mainly U.S. government contracts
- Product Revenue$20.6 MShare 48.6%▲ 165.6% YoY
Mainly gateway deliveries to operators
Key Metrics
Satellites in Orbit
12 satellites
10-Q
Contracted Revenue Backlog
$1.30 B
10-Q
Total Cash (Incl. Restricted)
$3.23 B
8-K
Adjusted Operating Expenses
$134 M
8-K
Shares are computed over the segment total: $42.3 M. Source: 8-K.
Metrics come only from the company's own filings; each one names the document it was taken from.
“We are on track for nationwide intermittent service activation in U.S. and other key markets before year-end 2026. It is a 20-ton vehicle able to carry up to five BlueBirds per launch, with initial launches planned for late 2028.”
- Year-end Service Launch
- In-house Blacklift Rocket
- Non-dilutive Funding
Summary and Review
Summary
AST SpaceMobile reported third-quarter revenue of $42.3 million. That is up 187% year over year, but the FactSet market expectation was $45.7 million. The result was 7.4% below estimates, so the revenue gate is closed. Loss per share was $0.44, 10% wider than the $0.40 expected. The earnings gate is closed too. Half of revenue came from products and half from services. The company kept its $150-200 million annual revenue target. It also announced new funding from Japan and the U.S. government the same day.
The stock rose 14.1% on Monday on the Rakuten joint venture news and closed at $36.89. It swung after hours and stood at $36.62, down 0.7%, as of 8:00 p.m. ET. Financing news released the same day offset the revenue shortfall. The company announced about $1.0 billion of non-dilutive funding from Japan. A roughly $100 million U.S. Space Force contract also came in. The market did not read this report as a revenue story; it read it as a financing story.
Our view is that the quarter was weak on the numbers and slow on network deployment. Only one launch took place, and the satellites in orbit stayed at 12. The low end of the annual target needs $61.4 million of fourth-quarter revenue. The high end needs $111.4 million. With two gates closed, the score drops to 44, in the sell band. Strong cash and new funding show the story is still intact.
Full Review
Revenue grew but fell short of estimates.
Total revenue was $42.3 million. A year earlier it was $14.7 million. Product revenue rose 166% to $20.6 million. It comes mainly from gateway deliveries to operators. Service revenue grew 211% to $21.8 million. A year ago product revenue was $7.7 million and service revenue $7.0 million. This quarter services overtook products. Its main source is milestones completed under U.S. government contracts. Total revenue rose 34% from the second quarter. Still, it was 7.4% below the $45.7 million estimate. Nine-month revenue reached $88.6 million. The subscriber-facing commercial service has not launched yet and produces no revenue. So all revenue still belongs to the network build-out phase. Because revenue arrives in lumps, a single slipped delivery can change a quarter sharply.
Launch cadence is behind plan.
Last quarter the company said the remaining launches would proceed every one to two months from the fall. That pace did not hold in the third quarter. The launch schedule depends heavily on outside providers. Only one launch took place in the third quarter. BlueBirds 11-13 reached orbit on August 5. There are 12 satellites in orbit; BlueBird 7, lost in April, is not counted. BlueBirds 14-16 sit at Cape Canaveral awaiting a SpaceX launch date. BlueBirds 17-19 will ship by the end of November for a Blue Origin launch. BlueBirds 20-25 are being prepared for launches in the first quarter of 2027. The target of 45 satellites, the threshold for commercial service, moved to mid-2027 according to the earnings call. Last quarter it was early 2027. The company also unveiled Blacklift, its own rocket, with a first flight in late 2028.
Cash is strong; spending is accelerating.
The company ended the quarter with $3.23 billion of total cash. Of that, $2.80 billion is cash and equivalents and $434.6 million is restricted cash. Long-term debt is $4.08 billion. CFO Andy Johnson put quarterly capital spending at about $310 million. He expects $400-500 million in the fourth quarter, a 45% rise at the midpoint. The increase reflects the timing of launch payments. Adjusted operating expenses rose 12% from the second quarter to $133.6 million. Excluding cost of revenue, they were $109.4 million. The funding side is widening. A non-dilutive funding deal of about $1.0 billion was signed with Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications and Rakuten. The Space Force deal lifts U.S. government awards to 16. Contracted revenue backlog stands at about $1.3 billion.
Fourth-quarter revenue is the gauge.
The company kept its full-year revenue target of $150-200 million. It added that recent contracts give upside to the target. But only $88.6 million was booked in nine months. The low end of the target requires $61.4 million in the fourth quarter. That is 45% above the third quarter. Intermittent nationwide service in the U.S. and other key markets is planned before year-end. Brazil also granted service authorization. In December the company aims to build six custom-chip satellites per month. Custom chip integration will start at BlueBird 34 instead of BlueBird 50. Next quarter, watch one line: fourth-quarter revenue. Above $61.4 million, the annual target held and the delivery story is intact. Below it, the revenue timeline has slipped again.
Looking Ahead
Strengths and Risks
6 Strengths · 6 RisksStrengths
6- Revenue rose 187% to $42.3 million, with product and service lines growing together.
- A non-dilutive funding deal of about $1.0 billion was signed with Japan.
- A roughly $100 million space-based sensing contract was won from the U.S. Space Force.
- Total cash of $3.23 billion at quarter end funds the network build-out.
- Contracted revenue backlog stands at about $1.3 billion.
- Custom chip integration starts earlier than planned, with BlueBird 34.
Risks
6- Revenue came in 7.4% below the $45.7 million estimate.
- Loss per share of $0.44 was 10% wider than the $0.40 expected.
- Only one launch took place in the quarter, leaving 12 satellites in orbit.
- The low end of the annual target requires $61.4 million of fourth-quarter revenue.
- Long-term debt of $4.08 billion exceeds total cash.
- Fourth-quarter capital spending of $400-500 million will speed up cash burn.
What to Watch
5- A SpaceX launch date for BlueBirds 14-16 is pending.
- BlueBirds 17-19 will ship by the end of November for a Blue Origin launch.
- Intermittent service in the U.S. and other key markets is targeted before the end of 2026.
- A production rate of six custom-chip satellites per month is planned for December.
- Fourth-quarter results are due ~March 2027, where the annual revenue target will be tested.
Upcoming Earnings
To Understand This