Overview
Since the Report − 1.5%
Revenue grew 6.6% year over year, EPS beat the estimate by 6.4%; the stock rose 2.0% in its first reaction.
- RevenueQ3
- $9.10B
- Estimate $8.90B · Beat by 2.3%
- and Adjusted EPSGAAP
- $1.99
- Estimate $1.87 · Beat by 6.4%
Verdict
BUYDuke Energy beat estimates in the third quarter, with EPS of $1.99 topping expectations by 6.4% and revenue of $9.10B beating by 2.3%. The company raised the low end of its 2026 range to $6.70 and expects to finish near the top. The stock rose 2% early in the session; next, watch fourth-quarter earnings and how the capital plan is funded.
Close on Report DayNov 5
$132.17▲ 2.0%Report-Day Move
- Market Cap(Today)
- ≈ $102 B
- 1Y Return(At Report)
- + 11%
- P/E(At Today's Price · $6.85 · Trailing 12M)
- 19.0
- PEG(Company Guidance 2026)
- 2.72
- Net Margin(Trailing 12M)
- 15.8%
Earnings Summary
In 30 Seconds- EPS of $1.99 beat the estimate by 6.4%, and revenue of $9.10B beat by 2.3%.
- The company narrowed its 2026 range to $6.70-$6.80 and expects to finish near the top end.
- The stock rose 2.0% early in the session and reached the $132.1 average analyst target.
The Numbers
Electric Segment Income
$1.82B
▲ 9.6% YoY
2026 EPS Guidance
$6.70–6.80
Low End Raised From $6.55
Nine-Month Adjusted EPS
$5.35
▲ 11.2% YoY
Stock Reaction
▲ 2.0%
Intraday 9:43 ET; Update This Evening
Quarterly Revenue ($ Billion)
9.18
Q1 26 · $9.18 B
7.59
Q2 26 · $7.59 B · QoQ − 17.3%
9.10
Q3 26 · $9.10 B · QoQ + 19.9%
- Q1 26
- Q2 26
- Q3 26
Q4 2026 Company Guidance
- 2026 Adjusted EPS6.7 – 6.8 $6.7 $6.8 $6.7 – 6.8 $
Midpoint 6.75 · Market Expectation 6.72 · Prior Range 6.55–6.80In Line ✓
- Long-Term EPS Growth5% – 7%5%7%
Annual Through 2030 · Off 2025 Midpoint of $6.30Reaffirmed ✓
How to Read the Chart
The blue band is the company's low-high range; its length shows how much room the company left itself. The black triangle and the line beneath it mark where the market expected, and the notch in the band is the range's midpoint. The triangle appears only where a market expectation is known. When the company gave a single number rather than a range and no market expectation is known, that row gets no band at all: there is no length to measure and no position to compare. Axis is ±19% around the midpoint.
Segment and KPI Data
Revenue by Segment
- Electric Utilities and Infrastructure$8.75 BShare 95.7%
Regulated electric service
- Gas Utilities and Infrastructure$390 MShare 4.3%
Seasonally weak summer quarter
Key Metrics
Electric Segment Income
$1.82 B
▲ 9.6% YoYPress Release
Effective Tax Rate
15.3%
Press Release
Nine-Month Operating Cash Flow
$7.89 B
▼ 9.0% YoYPress Release
Shares are computed over the segment total: $9.14 B. Source: Press Release.
Metrics come only from the company's own filings; each one names the document it was taken from.
“We delivered strong results through the first three quarters of the year, reflecting disciplined execution as we continue investing in the reliable service our customers depend on while keeping costs as low as possible. The growth across our states creates a significant opportunity, and our focus is on making sure that growth benefits everyone. We are well positioned to deliver on our 2026 priorities and create lasting value for our customers, communities and shareholders.”
- Top End of Guidance
- North Carolina Rate Orders
- Large-load Demand
Summary and Review
Summary
Duke Energy reported third-quarter operating revenue of $9.10B. That is up 6.6% from a year ago. Revenue beat the $8.90B market expectation by 2.3%, so the revenue gate is open. EPS was $1.99, with GAAP and adjusted earnings identical this quarter. The estimate was $1.87, a 6.4% beat, so the earnings gate is open too. The company narrowed its 2026 range to $6.70-$6.80. The midpoint sits 0.4% above the estimate, so the guidance gate is in line. Part of the revenue gain came from a hot summer.
The stock rose about 1% in premarket trading. As of 9:43 a.m. ET it traded at $132.17, up 2.0% from the prior close. This is an intraday measure; the closing reaction will be updated this evening. Hot weather helped earnings. But the main driver was infrastructure investment flowing into rates. The stock has now reached the average analyst price target of $132.1. That leaves limited upside on that measure. The stock has gained about 10.5% over the past year.
Score 72, verdict buy. Two gates are open and one is in line. Nine-month adjusted EPS rose 11.2% to $5.35. The long-term 5-7% growth target was reaffirmed, and the company targets the top half of that range from 2028. Two issues keep the score at the lower end of the band. Part of the earnings came from above-normal weather. The large capital plan also requires more debt and new equity. Still, the quarter paints a balanced picture above expectations.
Full Review
The electric segment carries earnings.
Electric Utilities and Infrastructure segment income was $1.82B. That is up 9.6% from a year ago. The segment's revenue was $8.75B, nearly all of the company's total. Regulated electric revenue rose 7.0% to $8.68B. According to the release, infrastructure investment recovered through rates and favorable weather lifted earnings. Higher depreciation, interest expense and noncontrolling interests partly offset the gain. Weather-normalized retail sales grew about 2%. On the earnings call, this was described as the strongest quarterly demand growth since 2022. Demand growth matters for a utility. It makes it easier to turn investment into rates and eases the cost per customer. That is why the electric segment also drives the company's valuation.
Gas, other items and taxes.
The Gas Utilities and Infrastructure segment lost $19M. A year earlier the loss was $26M. The summer quarter is seasonally weak for gas distribution. Over nine months, adjusted segment income was $352M. GAAP income for the same period was $523M, due to asset sales and special items. Regulated natural gas revenue fell 0.8% to $358M. The loss in Other widened from $225M to $247M, up 9.8%. The effective tax rate rose from 10.8% to 15.3%, an increase of 4.5 points. The release attributes this to lower amortization of excess deferred income taxes. Despite that, net income rose 10.2% to $1.55B. Without the tax effect, earnings growth would have been higher.
Guidance narrowed, long-term target kept.
The company narrowed its 2026 adjusted EPS range from $6.55-$6.80 to $6.70-$6.80. The low end rose 15 cents and the top end was unchanged. Management expects to finish near the top end of the range. Nine-month earnings reached $5.35. Hitting the top end requires $1.45 in the fourth quarter. Reaching the low end needs only $1.35. Adjusted EPS in last year's fourth quarter was $1.50. So the target looks achievable. Long term, the 5-7% annual growth target off the 2025 midpoint of $6.30 was reaffirmed. The company aims to earn in the top half of that range from 2028. Duke does not forecast GAAP EPS. The analyst full-year estimate is $6.72, 0.4% below the new midpoint.
The capital plan grows with debt.
The company's five-year capital plan is $103B. It calls for adding 16 GW of new generation capacity by 2031. That scale shows on the balance sheet. Long-term debt stood at $84.33B on September 30. That is up 5.3% from $80.11B at year-end. Nine-month operating cash flow fell 9.0%, from $8.67B to $7.89B. As the pace of investment rises, so does the need for outside financing. Part of that need is met by issuing new shares. The share count rose from 778 million to 780 million over the year. For a utility, the rate base drives earnings. But the cost of funding that base also decides per-share growth. The gap between debt and cash is the key risk to watch in coming quarters.
Next quarter, watch one line.
Next quarter, watch one number: fourth-quarter adjusted EPS. If it comes in above $1.45, the company hits the top of its guidance. In that case the 5-7% growth story enters 2027 from a strong base. If it falls below $1.35, the year ends below even the narrowed range. That would show the confidence in the third quarter was premature. The second measure is operating cash flow. The third is weather. If weather normalizes in 2027, growth must come entirely from investment. That depends on new rates taking effect on time. As investment rises, cash needs to grow faster than debt; see the cash flow guide. For a general method of reading earnings day, see the guide.
Looking Ahead
Strengths and Risks
5 Strengths · 5 RisksStrengths
5- EPS rose 9.9% to $1.99 and beat the $1.87 estimate by 6.4%.
- Revenue rose 6.6% to $9.10B and beat the estimate by 2.3%.
- Electric segment income rose 9.6% to $1.82B.
- The low end of 2026 guidance rose 15 cents, and management expects a result near the top.
- The long-term 5-7% EPS growth target through 2030 was reaffirmed.
Risks
5- Part of the earnings came from above-normal weather, which is not a lasting effect.
- Long-term debt rose 5.3% since year-end to $84.33B.
- Nine-month operating cash flow fell 9.0% to $7.89B.
- The effective tax rate rose 4.5 points to 15.3%.
- The stock has reached the $132.1 average analyst target, leaving limited upside.
What to Watch
3- The company will pay its $1.085 quarterly dividend on December 16 to holders of record on November 13.
- On the earnings call, orders in two North Carolina rate cases were said to be expected by mid-November.
- Fourth-quarter earnings are expected in February 2027.
Upcoming Earnings
To Understand This