Overview
Rocket Lab
RKLB · NASDAQQ3 2026Space & Defense · Launch and Space Systems
Since the Report − 6.7%
Revenue grew 72.7% year over year, EPS missed the estimate by 71.4%; the stock fell 6.7% in its first reaction.
- RevenueQ3
- $267.8M
- ▲ 73% YoY · Beat Estimate by 4.1%
- EPSGAAP
- −$0.12
- Estimate −$0.07 · 71% Wider Loss
Verdict
HOLDRocket Lab grew third-quarter revenue 73% to a record $267.8 million, beating estimates by 4.1%. The stock fell 6.7% after hours because Neutron's first flight slipped to 2027 and the GAAP loss was wider than expected. Next, watch the propellant tank tests and whether gross margin lands within the 34-36% guidance.
Close on Report DayNov 9
$58.86▼ 6.7%Report-Day Move
- Market Cap(Today)
- ≈ $32.9 B
- 1Y Return(At Report)
- + 12%
- Net Margin(Trailing 12M)
- − 21.5%
Earnings Summary
In 30 Seconds- Revenue grew 73% to $267.8 million and beat estimates by 4.1%; backlog rose to $3.57 billion.
- Fourth-quarter revenue guidance is $270-290 million, but Neutron's first flight slipped to no earlier than 2027.
- The stock fell 6.7% after hours as the Neutron delay and a wider GAAP loss drove the reaction.
The Numbers
Backlog
$3.57B
▲ 51% QoQ · From $2.36B
GAAP Gross Margin
33.6%
Guidance 29 – 31% · Down 3.4 Points YoY
Free Cash Flow
−$23.9M
Q2 −$110.1M
Stock Reaction
▼ 6.7%
After Hours · 8:00 P.m. ET · $54.94
Quarterly Revenue ($ Million)
155
Q3 25 · $155 M
180
Q4 25 · $180 M · QoQ + 15.8%
200
Q1 26 · $200 M · QoQ + 11.5%
234
Q2 26 · $234 M · QoQ + 16.8%
268
Q3 26 · $268 M · QoQ + 14.4% · YoY + 72.7%
270–290
Q4 26E · 270–290 · QoQ + 4.5% · YoY + 55.9%
- Q3 25
- Q4 25
- Q1 26
- Q2 26
- Q3 26
- Q4 26E
Q4 2026 Company Guidance
- Revenue270 – 290 million270 million290 million
Midpoint 280 · Market Expectation 265.45.5% Above Estimate ▲
- GAAP Gross Margin34% – 36%34%36%
Q3 Actual 33.6%1.4 Point Expansion ▲
- Adjusted EBITDA-20 – -14 million-20 million-14 million
Q3 Actual −$18.0MLoss Narrows 5.6% ▲
- GAAP Operating Expenses162 – 168 million162 million168 million162 – 168 million
Q3 Actual $169.3M2.5% Decline
How to Read the Chart
The blue band is the company's low-high range; its length shows how much room the company left itself. The black triangle and the line beneath it mark where the market expected, and the notch in the band is the range's midpoint. The triangle appears only where a market expectation is known. When the company gave a single number rather than a range and no market expectation is known, that row gets no band at all: there is no length to measure and no position to compare. Axis is ±20% around the midpoint.
Segment and KPI Data
Revenue by Segment
- Space Systems$215 MShare 80.2%▲ 88.1% YoY
- Launch Services$53.1 MShare 19.8%▲ 29.7% YoY
Key Metrics
Adjusted EBITDA
− $18.0 M
Press Release
Non-GAAP Gross Margin
38.4%
Press Release
Cash and Cash Equivalents
$4.45 B
Press Release
Electron Missions (Q3)
6 missions
10-Q
Shares are computed over the segment total: $268 M. Source: 10-Q.
Metrics come only from the company's own filings; each one names the document it was taken from.
“Our Q3 ending backlog hit a new high of $3.57 billion across 117 launches and more than 55 spacecraft.”
- Record Backlog
- Neutron Timeline Moved to 2027
- Constrained Launch Capacity
Summary and Review
Summary
Rocket Lab reported third-quarter revenue of $267.8 million. That is up 73% year over year and 4.1% above the $257.2 million market expectation, so the revenue gate is open. GAAP loss per share was $0.12, 71% wider than the $0.07 expected; the earnings gate is closed. The fourth-quarter revenue guidance midpoint is $280 million. That is 5.5% above the $265.4 million expectation, so the guidance gate is open. Backlog also rose 51% in one quarter to $3.57 billion.
The stock closed Monday's session up 10.9% at $58.86. After hours it fell 6.7% to $54.94 as of 8:00 p.m. ET. Neutron was the main reason. Voids were found in the forward dome of a propellant tank, and the first flight slipped to no earlier than 2027. The delay pushed back the most important milestone on the company's own calendar. A $27.3 million loss on debt extinguishment widened the loss. The market did not read this report as a revenue story; it read it as a timeline story.
Our view is that the quarter was operationally strong but weak on timing. Space Systems revenue grew 88% and gross margin beat company guidance. Free cash flow narrowed to negative $23.9 million from negative $110.1 million in the second quarter. On the other hand, the earnings gate is closed, and the Neutron delay postpones the most important part of the growth story. About $4.7 billion of cash and securities means no new capital is needed for Iridium. That keeps our score at 60, mid-range in the hold band.
Full Review
Space Systems carried the growth.
The Space Systems segment brought in $214.8 million of revenue. That is up 88% year over year. The segment's share of total revenue rose to 80%. It covers satellite buses, components and subsystems. Launch Services grew 30% to $53.1 million. The company completed six Electron missions in the quarter, versus four a year earlier. Launch Services revenue was $40.9 million a year ago. Space Systems brought in $114.2 million in the same quarter last year. CFO Adam Spice said the sequential gain came from two additional Electron missions. Total revenue rose $33.7 million from the second quarter. Rocket Lab also put 12 of its own spacecraft into orbit during the quarter. More than 55 spacecraft are in development and build. Rocket Lab now grows more like a space hardware company than a launch company. Four-fifths of revenue sits on that side.
Margin beat guidance but fell year over year.
GAAP gross margin came in at 33.6%. Company guidance was 29-31%, so the result beat the top end by 2.6 points. It was 2.5 points below the second quarter's 36.1%. Against 37.0% a year earlier, the gap is 3.4 points. Non-GAAP gross margin was 38.4%, versus 41.9% last year. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $18.0 million. A year earlier it was negative $26.3 million, so the loss shrank 31%. Operating cash flow turned positive at $7.2 million. Free cash flow was negative $23.9 million. That is about one-fifth of the second-quarter burn. Interest income of $28.6 million partly offset the loss. The large cash balance feeds that income. One-off items drove the bottom line. The loss on debt extinguishment was $27.3 million and Iridium deal costs were $9.4 million. Together they pushed the GAAP net loss to $79.7 million.
Neutron's first flight slipped to 2027.
Last quarter the company aimed to ship Neutron's first-stage tank to the launch pad in the fourth quarter. That did not happen. Voids were found in the forward dome of a propellant tank. The first flight is now expected no earlier than 2027, and no month was given. Peter Beck said there will be no date until the tank clears all of its testing. The company will post weekly updates during testing. Neutron is a medium-lift rocket built for much larger payloads than Electron. Access to large constellation contracts depends on it. Demand held up well. More than $515 million of Neutron contracts were signed in the quarter. The rocket's manifest rose to 16 missions. The base price was lifted to $70 million on several missions. Customers are waiting, but the revenue timeline moved out. CFO Spice said free cash flow stays negative until Neutron reaches production. The delay stretches that period.
Backlog at a record; gross margin is the gauge.
Backlog reached $3.57 billion. That is up 51% from $2.36 billion in the second quarter. Roughly 52% of it is launch and 48% is space systems. In total, 117 launches and more than 55 spacecraft are in the queue. Nearly $1 billion of launch contracts were signed in the quarter. Space Systems added $470 million of new contracts. The Iridium deal has not closed yet. Shareholders approved it on September 24, but FCC and some foreign approvals are still pending. Closing has been pushed to 2027. The deal was funded by the at-the-market share program completed in the third quarter. The weighted average share count rose 23% year over year to 652 million. Next quarter, watch one line: GAAP gross margin. If it holds within or above the 34-36% guidance, space systems scale is turning into profitability. If it falls below 33.6%, growth is coming at the expense of margin.
Looking Ahead
Strengths and Risks
6 Strengths · 5 RisksStrengths
6- Revenue grew 73% to $267.8 million and beat the market expectation by 4.1%.
- Backlog jumped 51% in one quarter to a record $3.57 billion.
- GAAP gross margin of 33.6% came in above the company's 29-31% guidance.
- Free cash flow narrowed from negative $110.1 million in the second quarter to negative $23.9 million.
- More than $515 million of Neutron contracts were signed, with pricing raised to $70 million on several missions.
- About $4.7 billion of cash and securities funds the Iridium deal without new capital.
Risks
5- Neutron's first flight slipped to no earlier than 2027 because of a tank defect, with no firm date.
- GAAP loss per share of $0.12 was 71% wider than the $0.07 expected.
- GAAP gross margin fell 3.4 points from 37.0% a year earlier to 33.6%.
- The weighted average share count rose 23% year over year as the share program diluted holders.
- The Iridium deal depends on FCC and foreign approvals, and closing slipped to 2027.
What to Watch
4- Fourth-quarter results are due ~February 2027, where the $270-290 million revenue guidance will be tested.
- Neutron propellant tank testing continues, and the company said it will post weekly updates.
- Electron's 100th launch is expected in the coming days.
- FCC approval for the Iridium deal and its expected 2027 closing are the next milestones.
Upcoming Earnings
To Understand This