Overview
T-Mobile US
TMUS · NASDAQQ3 2026Telecom · Wireless
Since the Report + 0.7%
Revenue grew 7.4% year over year, EPS beat the estimate by 11.4%; the stock rose 0.7% in its first reaction.
- RevenueQ3
- $23.58B
- ▲ 7.4% YoY · 1.9% Above Estimate
- EPSGAAP
- $3.22
- Estimate $2.89 · 11.4% Beat
Verdict
HOLDT-Mobile beat the earnings estimate by 11.4%, but revenue came in only 1.9% above expectations. Full-year EBITDA and cash targets moved slightly higher, yet postpaid account churn rose to 1.09% from 0.97% a year earlier. The stock barely moved, up 0.7% after hours; the one measure to watch next is how far churn rises in the fourth quarter.
Close on Report DayOct 28
$148.08▲ 0.7%Report-Day Move
- Market Cap(Today)
- ≈ $160 B
- 1Y Return(At Report)
- − 33%
- P/E(At Today's Price · $10.36 · Trailing 12M)
- 14.4
- Net Margin(Trailing 12M)
- 11.5%
Earnings Summary
In 30 SecondsThe Numbers
Core Adjusted EBITDA
$9.62B
▲ 10.8% YoY · Margin 49.7%
Postpaid ARPA
$155.73
▲ 4.2% YoY · Prior Quarter $152.91
Postpaid Net Account Additions
274K
▼ 31% YoY · Churn 1.09%
Stock Reaction
▲ 0.7%
After Hours · 8:00 P.m. ET · $149.11
Quarterly Revenue ($ Billion)
21.96
Q3 25 · $22.0 B
24.33
Q4 25 · $24.3 B · QoQ + 10.8%
23.11
Q1 26 · $23.1 B · QoQ − 5.0%
22.79
Q2 26 · $22.8 B · QoQ − 1.4%
23.58
Q3 26 · $23.6 B · QoQ + 3.5% · YoY + 7.4%
- Q3 25
- Q4 25
- Q1 26
- Q2 26
- Q3 26
Q4 2026 Company Guidance
- Core EBITDA (Full Year)37.35 – 37.45 billion37.35 billion37.45 billion
Midpoint 37.40 · Prior 37.10–37.50Raised 0.3% ▲
- Free Cash Flow (Full Year)18.7 – 18.8 billion18.7 billion18.8 billion
Midpoint 18.75 · Prior 18.40–18.80Raised 0.8% ▲
- Operating Cash Flow (Full Year)28.7 – 28.8 billion28.7 billion28.8 billion
Midpoint 28.75 · Prior 28.40–28.80Raised 0.5% ▲
- Net Account Adds (Full Year)1 million
Prior 0.95–1.05M · Implies ~232K in Q4Flat
- ARPA Growth3.5%
Prior 2.5–3.0% · Given on Earnings CallRaised 0.75 pts ▲
How to Read the Chart
The blue band is the company's low-high range; its length shows how much room the company left itself. The black triangle and the line beneath it mark where the market expected, and the notch in the band is the range's midpoint. The triangle appears only where a market expectation is known. When the company gave a single number rather than a range and no market expectation is known, that row gets no band at all: there is no length to measure and no position to compare. Axis is ±0.3% around the midpoint.
Segment and KPI Data
Revenue by Segment
- Postpaid Service$16.3 BShare 69.0%▲ 9.3% YoY
- Equipment$3.93 BShare 16.7%▲ 13.4% YoY
- Prepaid Service$2.43 BShare 10.3%▼ 7.5% YoY
- Wholesale and Other Service$679 MShare 2.9%▼ 7.5% YoY
- Other Revenues$280 MShare 1.2%▲ 11.6% YoY
Key Metrics
Postpaid Accounts
35.0 M accounts
8-K
Postpaid Net Account Additions
274 K accounts
▼ 30.8% YoY8-K
Postpaid ARPA
$156
▲ 4.2% YoY8-K
Postpaid Account Churn
1.1%
8-K
Core Adjusted EBITDA
$9.62 B
▲ 10.8% YoY8-K
Adjusted Free Cash Flow
$5.07 B
▲ 5.3% YoY8-K
Share Repurchases
$2.42 B
8-K
Net Debt (Excl. Tower Obligations)
$80.3 B
8-K
Shares are computed over the segment total: $23.6 B. Source: 8-K.
Metrics come only from the company's own filings; each one names the document it was taken from.
“In Q3, we once again led the industry in postpaid phone net additions and 5G broadband net additions, both of which helped translate to strong postpaid net account additions of 274,000. Alongside this, importantly, we saw over 4% postpaid ARPA growth year-over-year. Postpaid service revenue grew 9%, total service revenue 6% and core adjusted EBITDA 11%. We are maintaining our unique back book to front book pricing advantage, which is that on average, our existing customers actually pay less than our new customers.”
- ARPA Growth
- Plan Flexibility with T-Mix
- Physical AI and Kinetic Edge
Summary and Review
Summary
Revenue rose 7.4% year over year to $23.58B, beating the $23.15B Market Expectation by 1.9%. GAAP earnings per share came in at $3.22. The estimate was $2.89, a beat of 11.4%. The earnings gate is open. The revenue gate stays below the 2% threshold and counts as in line. Full-year EBITDA guidance rose just 0.3% at the midpoint. So the third gate is in line too.
The stock closed October 28 at $148.08. It rose to $149.11 after hours, a move of only 0.7%. For a stock down 9.9% in a month and 32.7% in a year, this is a weak reaction. The market did not read this report as an earnings story; it read it as a competition story. Investors looked less at the profit jump and more at rising churn and slowing net additions.
Our view is hold, with a score of 58. Profits and cash flow are strong. Buybacks cut the diluted share count by about 5% in a year. But net account additions fell from 396,000 to 274,000. Churn also rose 0.12 points. Much of the revenue growth comes from last year's UScellular and Metronet acquisitions. The fourth quarter will show the organic picture.
Full Review
Profit is growing far faster than revenue.
Net income was $3.46B. That is up 27% from a year earlier. Earnings per share grew 33.6%, because buybacks reduced the share count. Core adjusted EBITDA was $9.62B, up 10.8%. The margin was 49.7% of service revenue. A year ago it was 47.6%, and last quarter 50.2%. So the margin widened 2.1 points year over year. Sequentially it narrowed 0.5 points. One caveat matters. The year-ago quarter carried a $0.18 per share software impairment. That low base makes the profit growth look larger than it is. This quarter, UScellular merger costs also weighed $0.09 per share. Operating income rose 25% to $5.66B. Among costs, SG&A stayed nearly flat.
Revenue per account is rising, additions are slowing.
Postpaid average revenue per account was $155.73. That is up 4.2% year over year and 1.8% sequentially. Postpaid service revenue rose 9.3% to $16.27B. This line makes up 69% of total revenue. Pricing is working. Volume is slowing. Net account additions were 274,000, which is 31% below last year's 396,000. Postpaid account churn was 1.09%. A year ago it was 0.97%, and last quarter 0.99%. The company links the rise to the temporary impact of its rate plan modernization. The second reason is a growing share of broadband-only accounts, which churn more. Prepaid revenue fell 7.5% year over year. Wholesale and other service revenue fell by the same rate. The company ties that to the faster roll-off of the Boost MVNO.
Guidance moved up, but in small steps.
The full-year core EBITDA target is $37.35B to $37.45B. The midpoint is 0.3% above the prior range. The adjusted free cash flow target is $18.7B to $18.8B, up 0.8% at the midpoint. The target of about 1.0 million net account additions was unchanged. That target implies roughly 232,000 accounts in the fourth quarter. A year ago the number was 261,000. The EBITDA target implies about $9.0B for the fourth quarter. That means roughly 6.6% growth year over year. On the earnings call, the ARPA growth target was raised from 2.5% to 3% to about 3.5%. Full-year service revenue was guided to about $76.8B. Management expects fourth-quarter volatility from pricier phones and heavy promotions.
Cash is solid, capital priorities may shift.
Operating cash flow was $7.34B, down 1.6% from a year earlier. The decline came from working capital outflows. Adjusted free cash flow rose 5.3% to $5.07B, because capital spending fell 14%. The company bought back $2.4B of stock in the quarter and paid $1.1B in dividends. The quarterly dividend rises 15% to $1.17. Net debt stands at $80.3B. The CFO said spectrum auctions in 2027 and 2028 will take a larger share of capital. That means the pace of buybacks could slow. Through October 23, the company had bought back $10.3B of stock this year. On the call, the company also introduced CFO-designate Jessica Uhl. We explain the topic in our share buyback and cash flow guides.
In the fourth quarter, watch one line.
Next quarter, look at one line: postpaid net account additions. The full-year target requires about 232,000 accounts. The fourth quarter is when churn rises seasonally because of the holidays. If the number comes in above 232,000 and churn stays below 1.15%, this quarter's rise was a temporary pricing effect. In that case, growth in revenue per account keeps carrying the profit story. If it falls below 200,000, the picture changes. It means price increases are being paid for with lost customers. Then a 4% gain in revenue per account is not enough on its own. The drop in the share price would then look justified. We explain how to read earnings day in this guide.
Looking Ahead
Strengths and Risks
6 Strengths · 6 RisksStrengths
6- Earnings per share of $3.22 beat the Market Expectation by 11.4% and grew 33.6% year over year.
- Postpaid revenue per account rose 4.2% year over year to $155.73.
- The core EBITDA margin of 49.7% was 2.1 points above the 47.6% of a year earlier.
- Adjusted free cash flow rose 5.3% year over year to $5.07B.
- Full-year EBITDA, operating cash flow and free cash flow targets were raised at the midpoint.
- On October 27 the company launched T-Mix, a plan family that lets customers choose their perks.
Risks
6- Postpaid account churn rose to 1.09%, 0.12 points above the 0.97% of a year earlier.
- Net account additions fell 31% year over year to 274,000.
- Prepaid revenue fell 7.5% and wholesale and other service revenue fell 7.5% year over year.
- Operating cash flow fell 1.6% year over year on working capital outflows.
- Net debt stands at $80.3B, and spectrum auctions could squeeze the buyback budget.
- Management expects fourth-quarter volatility from pricier phones and heavy promotions.
What to Watch
5- The quarterly dividend of $1.17 will be paid on December 10, 2026.
- CFO Peter Osvaldik will hand the role to Jessica Uhl over the coming months.
- Fourth-quarter results and 2027 targets are due in January–February 2027.
- The $18.2B 2026 shareholder return authorization expires on December 31, 2026.
- Management plans to set aside more capital for the 2027 and 2028 spectrum auctions.
Upcoming Earnings
To Understand This