TSLA Rule Check
Tesla Inc against the rules: which it passes, where it lags and what to look at next.
- Price
- $405.83
- Market Cap
- $1.60 T
Flags First
- Quarterly EPS GrowthFail
- Quarterly Sales GrowthFail
- Three-Year EPS GrowthFail
- DilutionFail
- Famous Fund InterestCaution
- +1 More
Fit ScoreMixed Picture
Strengths and weaknesses balance out. Why the remaining rules fail decides it.
77% of Rules Measured · The ring's slices are the categories: length is weight, fill is score.
Company Analysis
- No report for this focus yet.
Claude writes a second opinion independent of the site's own analysis; while the market is open it reads the live price.
Categories
Elimination · PassTiny or thinly traded stocks move on a handful of orders; a position you cannot exit when needed is not worth holding.
Rule by Rule
Elimination
3 of 3 Measured- Market CapAt least $300M$1.60 TPass
- Share PriceAt least $5$405.83Pass
- Liquidity500K shares and $10M traded per day on average39.0 M SharesPass
Growth
3 of 4 Measured- Quarterly EPS GrowthAt least 10% year over year− 42.9%Fail
- Quarterly Sales GrowthAt least 10% year over year− 0.2%Fail
- Three-Year EPS GrowthAt least 10% annualized− 33.3%Fail
- Source of GrowthSales should grow at least 5% while profit grows− 0.2%No Data
Profitability
2 of 2 Measured- ProfitabilityPositive trailing twelve-month EPS$0.91Pass
- MarginsGross, operating and net margins positive3.4%Pass
Financial Health
3 of 3 Measured- Current RatioAt least 1 — current assets cover current liabilities1.74Pass
- Debt / EquityAt most 1; above 2 fails0.11Pass
- Cash RunwayPositive free cash flow or at least two years of cash—Pass
Price Strength
2 of 4 Measured- Versus the MarketSix-month return not behind the S&P 500—No Data
- Versus Its SectorSix-month return not behind the sector fund—No Data
- Distance from 52-Week LowAt least 30% above the low36.5%Pass
- Distance from 52-Week HighAt most 25% below the high18.6%Pass
Ownership
2 of 3 Measured- DilutionShare count up at most 2% a year+ 18.9%Fail
- Famous Fund InterestAmong tracked funds, adders not outnumbered by trimmers2 FundsCaution
- Insider ActivityNo heavy net selling over six months−16No Data
Catalyst Signals
2 of 3 Measured- Analyst TrendShare of buy ratings rising over three months+ 1.7 PtsNo Data
- Upside to TargetAt least 10% to the average target+ 0.7%Caution
- Quality of the Last ReportEarnings analysis score of at least 6070 / 100Pass
In each lane the line is the rule's threshold, the dot is the stock's value and the bar between them is the gap. Market cap, price and volume use a log scale: one step is ten times. A value beyond the end sits at the edge as an open dot.
Rule Bench
- 11Passed
- 2Caution
- 4Failed
- 5No Data
Each lamp is a rule: green passed, amber caution, red failed, grey no data. Tap a station to see its rules.
Weaknesses
- EPS changed − 42.9% year over year last quarter, below the 10% floor.
- Sales changed − 0.2% year over year last quarter, below the 10% floor.
- Three-year EPS growth of − 33.3% a year, below the 10% floor.
- Share count up + 18.9% in a year; existing holders are being diluted.
- Among tracked famous funds, trimmers outnumber adders.
- Upside to the average target is + 0.7%; limited.
Strengths
- Market cap of $1.60 T, comfortably above the size floor.
- Share price of $405.83, outside penny-stock territory.
- About 39.0 M shares trade a day; positions open and close easily.
- Earned $0.91 per share over the last twelve months.
- Gross, operating and net margins are all positive; operating margin 3.4%.
- Current ratio of 1.74; short-term obligations are well covered.
- Debt to equity of 0.11; a light debt load.
- Free cash flow is positive; the company funds itself.
- The price is 36.5% above its 52-week low.
- The price is near its 52-week high, 18.6% below it.
- The last earnings analysis scored 70 / 100.
Next Steps
- The share count is rising. Check how much growth stays per share: buybacks or new issuance?
- Forward P/E of 174.4. Much of the expectation may be priced in; compare the valuation with sector peers.
- Write down the concrete reason for growth: a new product, a contract, management or an industry shift. If you cannot say it in one sentence, waiting may be the better choice.
What You Should Check
- Is there a concrete reason for growth, and can you say it in one sentence?
- Where does the valuation sit against sector peers?
- Does the chart confirm the trend, or are you fighting a falling price?
- Is the position size within the loss you could bear if you are wrong?
The score averages the measurable rules with category weights: growth 30, price strength 20, profitability 15, health 15, ownership 10, catalysts 10. A pass counts in full, a caution half; rules we cannot measure stay out. A stock that hits an elimination rule is capped at 45. Growth above 300% counts as a base effect and is marked as a caution.
Sources: prices from Alpaca, fundamentals and analyst ratings from Finnhub, share counts from SEC filings, famous funds from 13F reports, targets and report scores from the site's own analyses.
This is not investment advice; it is a research tool that measures fit with the rules.
Alpaca · SIPUpdated 12:14 NY15 Minutes Delayed
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