Retail Sales Drop 0.6% in July, the Steepest Fall in Over a Year
The U.S. consumer pulled back sharply in July. Advance data released by the Census Bureau this morning at 8:30 a.m. ET (3:30 p.m. in Istanbul) showed retail and food services sales fell 0.6% month over month to $763.6 billion, against forecasts that ranged from a 0.2% decline to a 0.3% gain — the steepest monthly drop in more than a year. Autos did most of the damage, with motor vehicle and parts dealers down 1.8% and auto dealers alone down 2.0%, but sales ex-autos fell only 0.3% and ex-autos-and-gas just 0.2%, the year-over-year gain still stands at 5.0%, and June was revised 0.2% higher — this is loss of momentum, not collapse.
The reaction showed up in Treasuries. Government bonds rallied and yields fell after the print, eroding bets on a September rate hike; the 10-year yield had been at 4.661%, up 2 basis points, just before the release. With the Fed funds rate at 3.63%, July CPI down to 3.30% year over year and core CPI at 2.47%, and nonfarm payrolls having shed 23,000 jobs in July, a softening consumer pushes the hawkish scenario another step away — and the preliminary August University of Michigan sentiment reading at 10:00 a.m. ET (5:00 p.m. in Istanbul), seen at 47.8 versus 49.5 previously, will test that picture.
Applied Materials posted a record quarter and the stock still fell about 5% premarket. After yesterday's close (August 13) the company reported $9.12 billion in revenue, up 25% year over year, and adjusted EPS of $3.50 against a $3.45 estimate, with earnings up 41%; its fourth-quarter guidance of $10.25 billion in revenue came in well above the $9.54 billion consensus. Shares fell anyway: Summit Insights flagged that Applied's growth is trailing and , while pointed to a flat margin outlook that fails to clear a rising investor bar — and with China's share of revenue down to 28% ($2.51 billion) from 35% a year ago and the stock having more than doubled in 2026, even a record is no longer enough.
