Core Capital Goods Orders Jump 1.6% in August
U.S. core capital goods orders rose 1.6% in August. Economists expected 0.5%. The Commerce Department released the data at 8:30 a.m. ET (3:30 p.m. in Istanbul).
The series tracks nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft. It is the closest-watched leading gauge of business equipment spending. July was also revised up to 0.6% from 0.0%.
The headline was dull. Total durable goods orders were flat at $338.6B, against expectations for a 0.4% drop. Nondefense aircraft orders fell 4.3%.
Computers (up 1.5%) and machinery (up 1.1%) drove the gain. Economists tie it to investment in AI infrastructure. The economy is not slowing, and that adds to the case for another rate hike.
Fed funds futures still put roughly a 70% chance on an October hike.
This time the bond market looked at oil, not the data.
The 10-year Treasury yield is at 5.17%, 3 basis points below Thursday's 5.20% close. A three-session climb has paused for the first time. The global selloff continues: Japan's 10-year yield is at 3.1%, a 30-year high.
Oil is what is easing yields. U.S.-Iran talks in New York are discussing a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi offered to reopen the strait and resume nuclear talks within seven days if Iran's conditions are met.
