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Nasdaq 100 · QQQ720.23+ 1.13%S&P 500 · SPY769.81+ 0.58%Dow Jones · DIA523.80+ 0.16%Russell 2000 · IWM279.48+ 0.90%

The Day's Ledger

Friday, September 4, Regular-Session Close

Indices split: Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 rose, S&P 500 and Dow Jones fell.

S&P 500, Daily Change− 0.39%

Indices, Close to CloseScale ±1.0%

Nasdaq 100QQQ+ 0.18%
S&P 500SPY− 0.39%
Dow JonesDIA− 0.53%
Russell 2000IWM+ 0.28%

10-Year Yield4.77%4.78%+1 Bp
VIX14.3214.53+ 0.21 Pts
USD/TRY48.310748.3195+ 0.02%

Stocks in This Brief

ORCL+ 3.08%

Close to close: Alpaca SIP, U.S. Treasury, Cboe and the CBRT. A measure not from that session is not shown.Sources and Method

Index and stock percentages are close to close, from daily trade bars (Alpaca SIP), the same calculation as the Day's Poster. 10-year yield from the U.S. Treasury, VIX from Cboe, USD/TRY from the CBRT bulletin. A measure whose data is not from that session is not shown. A percentage in the brief text may come from the quote at the time of writing (including after-hours); the ledger shows the regular-session close.

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Tuesday, September 8Written by: Claude

Brent Touches $99, Canada's Counter-Tariffs Take Effect Today

In This Issue

01Houthi forces struck energy facilities in southern Saudi Arabia on Tuesday morning.
02Canada's counter-tariffs took effect at 12:01 a.m. ET today (7:01 a.m. in Istanbul).

Houthi forces struck energy facilities in southern Saudi Arabia on Tuesday morning.

Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said the operation used "dozens of ballistic missiles and drones." The targets included the Jazan refinery and fuel installations across the south.

A Saudi coalition spokesman said 73 people were wounded. The Energy Ministry reported fires at the sites and a temporary halt to some operations.

The Jazan refinery is rated at 400,000 barrels a day. But this is the third strike on it in two months, and no exports were recorded from the site in August. The barrels actually lost are close to zero.

The market did not price this as lost supply.

It priced it as escalation risk.

Brent touched $99.46 in premarket trade. That is the highest level since late July. WTI is above $93; oil was near $72 in early July.

The transmission channel is rates. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.79%, and futures now put the odds of a 25 basis point hike at the September 16 meeting near 60%. That figure was 57% on Monday; the policy rate stands at 3.50%-3.75%.

Canada's counter-tariffs took effect at 12:01 a.m. ET today (7:01 a.m. in Istanbul).

They cover C$27.6 billion of American goods across more than 700 product lines, at rates between 15% and 50%. The list includes steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics.

The measures follow the 50% US tariff on Canadian goods imposed in July and the collapse of talks in late August.

Prime Minister Mark Carney defended the move: "We have everything we need to pivot and prosper. That pivot will come at a cost."

Ottawa announced a C$5.42 billion support package for affected small and mid-sized businesses. Washington, for its part, bans imports of Canadian dairy, motorcycles and alcohol from September 29.

Chinese exports rose 25% year over year in August. Asia was split overnight: the Nikkei 225 fell 1.7%, the Hang Seng lost 0.4%, and the Shanghai Composite added 0.2%.

No significant earnings have landed since Friday's close. Friday evening's calendar carried no large names, which is the one small mercy of the three-day break.

The US macro calendar is empty today. Nothing was released at 8:30 a.m. ET (3:30 p.m. in Istanbul). Oil and Treasuries, not data, will set the direction.

Twenty-two companies report today, and Casey's General Stores is the only familiar name. It reports after hours, with estimates of $6.88 per share and $5.69B in revenue. ABM Industries ($1.02) and United Natural Foods ($0.62) report premarket.

On the last trading day, Friday September 4, the indexes split. SPY, which tracks the S&P 500, fell 0.39% and DIA, which tracks the Dow, fell 0.53%. QQQ, tracking the Nasdaq 100, rose 0.18%, and IWM, tracking the Russell 2000, rose 0.28%.

That close is now three days old. Wall Street has to price Friday's jobs report, a weekend of Hormuz tension and this morning's strikes in a single session.

The rest of the week: Oracle reports Thursday after hours. August CPI and core CPI land Friday, September 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET (3:30 p.m. in Istanbul); July headline was 3.30% and core 2.47%. The FOMC decision, dot plot and press conference follow on September 16.

One threshold matters today: $100 Brent. A close above it hardens September hike pricing ahead of Friday's CPI; a failure there leaves this strike as a one-day oil story.

Archive

Tuesday, October 27· TodayAnthropic Files for IPO With $16.3B in First-Half RevenueAnthropic filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday for a Nasdaq IPO; the shares will trade under the ticker ANT. The filing shows $16.3B in revenue for the first half of 2026, up from $1.16B a year earlier. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are leading the offer
Monday, October 26Brazil ETF Plunges 25% Premarket After Lula Wins Fourth TermLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil's Sunday runoff with 51.8% of the vote, securing a fourth term. Rival Flávio Bolsonaro took 48.2%, refused to accept the result and called for the vote to be annulled. Markets had priced a Bolsonaro win; he led the first round 47.0% to 45.2%.
Sunday, October 25Saudi Stocks Fall 1.1% as Houthis Fire Missiles at RiyadhMarkets are closed for the weekend; Wall Street opens Monday at 9:30 a.m. ET (4:30 p.m. in Istanbul). The new development since Saturday's brief is the first reaction from Gulf bourses, which trade on Sunday.
Saturday, October 24Brent Settles at $116.72; Iran Warns U.S. Warships Out of the GulfMarkets are closed for the weekend; Wall Street reopens Monday at 9:30 a.m. ET (4:30 p.m. in Istanbul). What will shape the open came from Tehran on Saturday.
Friday, October 23Treasury Yields Drop 19 bps; October Hike Is Off the TableThe 10-year Treasury yield fell 19 basis points on Thursday to 4.95%. It was the steepest one-day drop since March 2023; the yield stood at 5.13% a day earlier and hit 5.36% on October 7. This morning it trades between 4.95% and 4.97%, close to Thursday's close.
Thursday, October 22Nasdaq Futures Fall 1.7% as Iran Claims Strikes on Seven ShipsWall Street futures point to a sharply lower open. As of 7:16 a.m. ET (2:16 p.m. in Istanbul), Nasdaq 100 futures were down 1.7%, S&P 500 futures 1.1% and Dow futures 0.7%. Two forces are at work: earnings from Meta and Tesla failed to lift futures, and oil rose on a new Iranian
Wednesday, October 21SpaceX Revenue Jumps 161%; Musk Puts a Tesla Merger on the TableSpaceX lifted third-quarter revenue 161% from a year earlier to $14.58B. Analysts expected $12.7B to $12.9B. Earnings per share of $0.35 more than doubled the $0.13-$0.16 forecast, and net income reached $4.4B.
Tuesday, October 20Houthis Target Saudi Oil Sites, Sending Brent to $111Brent slipped 0.3% on Monday as Russia sanctions eased, but it is climbing again this morning. The Houthis said Monday they targeted Aramco's Yanbu facility, the Shaybah oilfield and King Khalid Airport in Riyadh. Saudi authorities have not confirmed the claims, and Reuters could
Monday, October 19Nasdaq Futures Rise 1% as Oil and Yields RetreatFutures are recovering after the Nasdaq's worst week since early June. As of 8:30 a.m. ET (3:30 p.m. in Istanbul), Nasdaq 100 futures were up more than 1% and S&P 500 futures up 0.5%. Dow futures were slightly lower.
Sunday, October 18Iran Offers Seven-Day Plan to Reopen Hormuz; Decision Rests With USUS markets are closed today and reopen Monday at 9:30 a.m. ET (4:30 p.m. in Istanbul). The weekend's key news came from Tehran. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Saturday that Iran sent the US a seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz via Qatar.
Saturday, October 17Nasdaq Loses 4.5% on the Week as Chip Selloff DeepensU.S. markets are closed today and reopen Monday at 9:30 a.m. ET (4:30 p.m. in Istanbul). Friday brought the week's sharpest selloff: the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.1% and ended the week down 4.5%. It was the worst week since late June.
Friday, October 16Investors Push Anthropic Toward a $1.5T IPO ValuationPrice expectations for Anthropic's IPO are being pulled lower. Reuters reported late Thursday, citing four sources, that some investors want the company valued at about $1.5T. The figure discussed earlier was roughly $2T, a gap of about 25%.
Thursday, October 15Producer Prices Jump 1.3% in September, Yet the 10-Year Yield FallsSeptember producer inflation came in at more than double expectations. Producer prices rose 1.3% month over month, the Labor Department said at 8:30 a.m. ET (3:30 p.m. in Istanbul). Economists expected 0.5%; it was the biggest monthly gain since March 2022.
Wednesday, October 14October Hike Odds Top 40% as Core Inflation Runs HotSeptember inflation came in hotter than expected, and the Fed's October meeting is back in play. Consumer prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier, the Labor Department said at 8:30 a.m. ET (3:30 p.m. in Istanbul), up from 3.4% in August. The 0.6% monthly gain matched forecasts.
Tuesday, October 13Chip Selloff Spreads as Nasdaq 100 Futures Slip 0.6% PremarketThe chip selloff that started in New York on Monday deepened in Asia on Tuesday. South Korea's Kospi closed down 5.5%. SK Hynix fell 10% and Samsung Electronics lost 7.4%.
Monday, October 12Brent Jumps 2% to $106.80 as Energy Ceasefire Fails to Calm OilTrump said on Sunday that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop attacking each other's energy facilities. On Friday he had said Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tons of diesel. Brent fell as low as $102.99 in Asian trading on the two announcements.
Sunday, October 11Riyadh Airport Strike Kills 12; Trump Weighs Joining Houthi FightU.S. stock markets are closed for the weekend. Trading resumes Monday at 9:30 a.m. ET (4:30 p.m. in Istanbul), while the bond market stays shut for Columbus Day.
Saturday, October 10T-Mobile Sinks 13.6% in a Day as Tower Stocks RallyU.S. stock markets are closed for the weekend. Trading resumes Monday at 9:30 a.m. ET (4:30 p.m. in Istanbul), while the bond market stays shut for Columbus Day.
Friday, October 9SpaceX Buys Spectrum; Carrier Stocks Fall Up to 7% PremarketSpaceX agreed last night to buy Grain Management's nationwide 800 MHz spectrum portfolio. The package covers 14 MHz of low-band spectrum. The price was not disclosed, and the deal needs FCC approval.
Thursday, October 8Tanker Attacks Lift Brent to $105; Stock Futures SlideBrent crude climbed to $105 a barrel this morning. After slipping below $100 on Monday, it rose about 5% overnight; WTI trades near $92.50. What is new is the pace of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.
Wednesday, October 710-Year Yield Back at 5.33% Ahead of $39B Auction TodayThe U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed back above 5.3% this morning. It sits near 5.33%, about 6 basis points above Tuesday's close. Monday's 5.35% peak was the highest since 2002.
Tuesday, October 6Brent Falls to $98.5 as Mideast Crude Exports Top Prewar LevelsBrent, which opened Sunday night at $102-103, slipped below $100 this morning. Premarket, the contract trades near $98.50, down 1.6%. WTI is off 2% at about $87.50.
Monday, October 5Schneider to Buy PTC in $22.6B Cash Deal; PTC Jumps PremarketFrance's Schneider Electric is buying U.S. industrial software maker PTC for $205 a share in cash. The deal values PTC's equity at $22.6B, or $23.7B including debt.
Sunday, October 4Houthis Claim Aramco Strike; Brent Closed Friday at $102U.S. markets are closed for the weekend. Trading resumes Monday at 9:30 a.m. ET (4:30 p.m. in Istanbul).
Saturday, October 310-Year Yield Ends at 5.28% Despite Weak Jobs DataU.S. markets are closed for the weekend. Trading resumes Monday at 9:30 a.m. ET (4:30 p.m. in Istanbul).
Friday, October 2Payrolls Stall at 29,000; October Hike Odds CollapseThe U.S. economy added just 29,000 jobs in September. Economists expected 90,000. The unemployment rate, released at 8:30 a.m. ET (3:30 p.m. in Istanbul), rose to 4.2% from 4.1%.
Thursday, October 1Micron Guides $61.5B; Chipmakers Rise Despite Bond SelloffMicron beat forecasts after Wednesday's close and guided higher. Fiscal fourth-quarter revenue was $54.23B, against a $52.6B consensus. Adjusted earnings came to $33.42 a share, versus $32.56 expected.
Wednesday, September 30Core PCE Slows to 3.0%, Putting an October Hike in DoubtThe Fed's preferred inflation gauge came in below forecasts. August core PCE rose 3.0% from a year earlier, against a 3.3% consensus and 3.3% in July. The monthly gain was 0.2%, versus 0.3% expected.
Tuesday, September 2910-Year Yield Hits 5.24%, Highest Since 2007The bond market finished what oil started. Treasury data show the 10-year yield closed Monday at 5.24%, up 7 basis points from Friday's 5.17%.
Monday, September 28Brent Tops $108 as Futures Head Lower Into the OpenOil priced the weekend's Iran news for the first time this morning. Brent rose 4% to $108.50; it closed Friday at $104.32. U.S. crude, WTI, gained 4.2% to $96.30.
Sunday, September 27Core PCE Seen at 3.4% as October Hike Hinges on the DataU.S. markets are closed for the weekend. Trading resumes Monday, September 28, at 9:30 a.m. ET (4:30 p.m. in Istanbul).
Saturday, September 26Trump Rejects Iran's Hormuz Plan; Brent Closed Friday at $104U.S. markets are closed for the weekend. Trading resumes Monday, September 28, at 9:30 a.m. ET (4:30 p.m. in Istanbul).
Friday, September 25Core Capital Goods Orders Jump 1.6% in AugustU.S. core capital goods orders rose 1.6% in August. Economists expected 0.5%. The Commerce Department released the data at 8:30 a.m. ET (3:30 p.m. in Istanbul).
Thursday, September 24October Hike Odds Jump to 71%; Xi at the White HouseThe market now sees another rate hike in October as the likelier outcome. Fed funds futures put a 71% chance on at least a 25-basis-point hike next month. A day earlier the figure was around 50%.
Wednesday, September 23JPMorgan Falls 3.3% as AI-Agent Fears Spread to BanksOn Tuesday, AI hit the banks. JPMorgan fell 3.3%, its worst day since February. Bank of America and Citigroup each lost 2%.
Tuesday, September 22Brent Slips Below $100 as Iran Sets Terms to Reopen HormuzIran can reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Tuesday.
Monday, September 21Nasdaq Futures Up 1.1%; Trump-Xi Summit Lands ThursdayTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent met Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in New York on Sunday for roughly eight hours. His word on the way out was "very successful."
Sunday, September 20Diesel at a Record $6.43; Ukraine Strikes Moscow's Own RefineryMarkets are closed today. New York opens Monday at 9:30 a.m. ET (4:30 p.m. in Istanbul).
Saturday, September 19Memory Takes 64% of AI Budgets by 2027, UBS SaysUBS raised its forecast for AI capital spending. Global AI capex now reaches $998B this year and $1.45T in 2027.
Friday, September 18BOJ Hikes; Yen Weakens Past 157 as Two Members DissentThe Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points this morning. The new rate is 1.25%, the highest in 31 years. The vote was 7-2.
Thursday, September 17Fed's Dot Plot Erases 2027 Cuts; Futures Rebound 1.3%The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, lifting the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. The vote was unanimous, 12-0. It is the first hike since July 2023.
Wednesday, September 16Fed Hike 93% Priced In; Market Prices a December Move TooThe Fed's rate decision lands today at 2:00 p.m. ET (9:00 p.m. in Istanbul). Money markets put the odds of a 25-basis-point hike at 93%. The target range would move from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%, the first increase since July 2023.
Tuesday, September 1510-Year Yield Tops 5%, Highest Since 2007; Fed Decides WednesdayThe 10-year Treasury yield pushed above 5% this morning. It stands at 5.00%, against a 4.99% close on Monday, and touched 5.04% overnight. That is the highest level since July 2007.
Monday, September 14Chip Stocks Fall as Much as 7% After AI Leaders Urge a SlowdownAnthropic co-founder Dario Amodei published a roughly 3,800-word essay on Saturday. One sentence sits at its center: "We must slow the pace at which we improve the capabilities of AI models."
Sunday, September 13DeepSeek's New Model Cuts HBM Needs by 75%US markets are closed for the weekend. The next session opens Monday, September 14, at 9:30 a.m. ET (4:30 p.m. in Istanbul).
Saturday, September 12Oracle's Data Center Budget Lifts HPE and Dell 12%US markets are closed for the weekend. The next session opens Monday, September 14, at 9:30 a.m. ET (4:30 p.m. in Istanbul).
Friday, September 11Core CPI Runs Hot; September Hike Odds Climb to 70%August CPI landed at 8:30 a.m. ET. The headline matched expectations: 0.4% on the month, 3.4% over the year. The miss is in the core.
Thursday, September 10August PPI Hits 5.4% as Energy Costs Drive the GainAugust PPI landed at 8:30 a.m. ET (3:30 p.m. in Istanbul): up 0.4% on the month and 5.4% on the year. Consensus for the annual print was 5.3%. It is the largest monthly gain in three months.
Wednesday, September 9Hormuz Flows Fall Below 2 Million Barrels; Brent Tops $100CENTCOM said the vessels were hit in the Gulf of Oman and near Kharg Island, and that crews were directed to abandon ship before the strikes.
Tuesday, September 8Brent Touches $99, Canada's Counter-Tariffs Take Effect TodayHouthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said the operation used "dozens of ballistic missiles and drones." The targets included the Jazan refinery and fuel installations across the south.
Monday, September 7Kospi Climbs 4.6% Toward 7,000; Wall Street Reopens TuesdayMarkets are closed. U.S. exchanges are shut today for Labor Day; the next session opens Tuesday, September 8 at 9:30 a.m. ET (4:30 p.m. in Istanbul). Asia traded through the day, and what came out of it has not been priced on Wall Street yet.
Sunday, September 6Brent Ends Week Up 7.6% as U.S. Strikes Three Iranian TankersMarkets are closed. It is Sunday, and Monday is the Labor Day holiday, so New York does not trade again until Tuesday, September 8 at 9:30 a.m. ET (4:30 p.m. in Istanbul) — and the U.S.-Iran conflict escalated over the weekend, with none of it priced in yet.
Saturday, September 5FICO Falls 15% as FHFA Opens Mortgage Scoring to All LendersU.S. markets are closed for the weekend, and the next session is Tuesday. Exchanges are shut Monday for Labor Day, so trading resumes at 9:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, September 8 (4:30 p.m. in Istanbul). Two regulatory decisions from Friday are not fully priced yet.
Friday, September 4August Payrolls Hit 162,000, Reviving September Rate Hike BetsAugust nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the data at 8:30 a.m. ET (3:30 p.m. in Istanbul); the LSEG consensus was around 55,000, so the print came in near three times forecast. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, and average hourly earn
Thursday, September 3Broadcom Sees $115B in FY27 AI Revenue, Stock Drops 5% on MarginBroadcom reported fiscal third-quarter results after Wednesday's close, and the news was less the quarter itself than the outlook management put behind it. Revenue came in at $29.59B with adjusted EPS of $3.32 against a $3.30 estimate, while AI semiconductor revenue rose 221% yea
Wednesday, September 2Brent Tops $95 as the 10-Year Yield Hits a Two-Year HighU.S. forces began striking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets in Iran at 12 p.m. ET on Tuesday. CENTCOM said the strikes followed attempted attacks on commercial shipping and American service members around the Strait of Hormuz; Iranian state media reported explosions
Tuesday, September 1California Omits Wildfire Liability Cap; Edison Falls 23%The California wildfire bill advanced by lawmakers on Monday leaves out the protections utilities had counted on. Senate Bill 492 speeds up claims payments to wildfire victims, strengthens data sharing and authorizes additional bond issuance for the state wildfire fund. Four
Monday, August 31Oil Jumps 3.9% After U.S. Strikes Iranian Launchers Near HormuzThe U.S. military struck Iranian rocket launchers on Sunday. Central Command spokesman Capt. Tim Hawkins said the launchers were preparing to send mines into the Strait of Hormuz, making this the first direct American action against Iran in weeks.
Sunday, August 30U.S. Secures 55% of Venezuela Oil Venture, Output Years AwayWith U.S. markets closed, the weekend's biggest development came in oil. Trump announced a deal with Venezuela on Saturday, August 29 that hands the U.S. side 55% of the output of a new joint venture, while ownership of the 65 billion barrels of proven reserves stays with Ven
Saturday, August 29September Hike Odds Jump to 60% After Warsh's Inflation WarningU.S. markets are closed for the weekend; the next session opens Monday, August 31 at 9:30 a.m. ET (4:30 p.m. in Istanbul). The story carrying into it was priced Friday morning: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole address turned the September 16 FOMC meeting into one where a

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