Overview
Since the Report − 1.6%
Revenue grew 8.5% year over year, EPS beat the estimate by 11.4%; the stock fell 1.6% in its first reaction.
- RevenueQ3
- $10.37B
- ▲ 8.5% Year Over Year · Beat by 2.9%
- EPSAdjusted
- $6.45
- Estimate $5.79 · Beat by 11.4%
Verdict
BUYAmgen beat market expectations on both revenue and adjusted earnings in the third quarter and raised its full-year guidance again. The stock was still down 1.6% after hours following the earnings call; the raised earnings guidance is only 1.2% above expectations, and shares were already trading above analyst targets. The next thing to watch is the balance between eroding legacy products and fast-growing new ones.
Close on Report DayNov 3
$461.26▼ 1.6%Report-Day Move
- Market Cap(Today)
- ≈ $245 B
- 1Y Return(At Report)
- + 56%
- P/E(At Today's Price · $23.18 · Trailing 12M)
- 19.6
- PEG(Company Guidance 2026)
- 2.92
- Net Margin(Trailing 12M)
- 23.0%
Earnings Summary
In 30 Seconds- Revenue of $10.37B was 2.9% above estimates, and adjusted EPS of $6.45 beat by 11.4%.
- Full-year adjusted EPS guidance moved to $22.90–23.70; the midpoint is only 1.2% above market expectations.
- Shares were down 1.6% after hours following the call; for a stock already above analyst targets, the guidance raise offered limited upside.
The Numbers
Full-Year EPS Guidance
$22.90–23.70
Estimate $23.02 · 1.2% Above
Adjusted Operating Margin
47.3%
47.1% a Year Ago · Up 0.2 Points
Prolia
$632M
▼ 45% Annual · Biosimilar Competition
Stock Reaction
▼ 1.6%
After Hours, 6:34 P.m. ET · Post-Call
Quarterly Revenue ($ Billion)
9.56
Q3 25 · $9.56 B
9.87
Q4 25 · $9.87 B · QoQ + 3.2%
8.62
Q1 26 · $8.62 B · QoQ − 12.6%
10.05
Q2 26 · $10.1 B · QoQ + 16.7%
10.37
Q3 26 · $10.4 B · QoQ + 3.1% · YoY + 8.5%
9.86–10.66
Q4 26E · 9.86–10.66 · QoQ − 1.0% · YoY + 4.0%
- Q3 25
- Q4 25
- Q1 26
- Q2 26
- Q3 26
- Q4 26E
Q4 2026 Company Guidance
- Full-Year Revenue38.9 – 39.7 billion38.9 billion39.7 billion
Midpoint 39.3 · Market Expectation 38.9 · Prior Range 38.2–39.41.0% Above Estimate ▲
- Full-Year Adjusted EPS22.9 – 23.7 $22.9 $23.7 $
Midpoint 23.30 · Market Expectation 23.02 · Prior Range 22.30–23.501.2% Above Estimate ▲
- Full-Year GAAP EPS18.34 – 19.28 $18.34 $19.28 $
Prior Range 15.80–17.08 · Midpoint 18.81Raised 14.4% ▲
- Adjusted Tax Rate15.0% – 16.5%15.0%16.5%
15.9% in Q3 · 18.2% a Year Ago · Range UnchangedFlat
- Capital Expenditures2.6 billion
About 2.6 · Same As Prior GuidanceFlat
How to Read the Chart
The blue band is the company's low-high range; its length shows how much room the company left itself. The black triangle and the line beneath it mark where the market expected, and the notch in the band is the range's midpoint. The triangle appears only where a market expectation is known. When the company gave a single number rather than a range and no market expectation is known, that row gets no band at all: there is no length to measure and no position to compare. Axis is ±5.5% around the midpoint.
Segment and KPI Data
Revenue by Segment
- U.S. Product Sales$7.26 BShare 70.0%
- Rest of World Product Sales$2.62 BShare 25.3%
- Other Revenues$482 MShare 4.7%
Key Metrics
Free Cash Flow
$3.65 B
▼ 14.0% YoYPress Release
Total Product Sales
$9.88 B
▲ 8.0% YoYPress Release
EVENITY Sales
$751 M
▲ 39.0% YoYPress Release
TEZSPIRE Sales
$538 M
▲ 43.0% YoYPress Release
UPLIZNA Sales
$451 M
▲ 191.0% YoYPress Release
IMDELLTRA Sales
$406 M
▲ 128.0% YoYPress Release
BLINCYTO Sales
$496 M
▲ 27.0% YoYPress Release
GAAP Operating Margin
37.5%
Press Release
Shares are computed over the segment total: $10.4 B. Source: Press Release.
Metrics come only from the company's own filings; each one names the document it was taken from.
“Our results through the first three quarters of the year reflect the strength of our business across a broad range of products and pipeline molecules. This is exactly the kind of performance our strategy was designed to achieve. Strong commercial and operations execution and continued innovation from our research and development organization reinforce our confidence in Amgen's ability to deliver durable long-term growth.”
- Six Key Growth Drivers
- Three Positive Phase 3 Readouts
- No 2027 Margin Step-down
Summary and Review
Summary
Amgen's third-quarter revenue came in at $10.37 billion. That is up 8.5% year over year and 2.9% above market expectations. Product sales grew 8% to $9.88 billion. Adjusted earnings per share of $6.45 beat the estimate by 11.4%. The company moved its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $22.90-23.70. The midpoint is only 1.2% above market expectations. So the revenue and earnings gates are open, while the guidance gate is in line.
The stock closed the regular session at $461.26. After the earnings call it was down 1.6% after hours as of 6:34 p.m. ET. The market did not read this report as an earnings story, but as a guidance story. Shares are up 56% over the past year and trade 16% above the average analyst target of $397. From that price, a modest lift in the full-year range opens little new room. On the call, management said it expects higher expenses in the fourth quarter.
Score 74, view buy. The quarter cleared two measures by a wide margin, while guidance stayed in line with expectations. Volume is the growth engine: Repatha grew 37%, Evenity 39%, Uplizna 191% and Imdelltra 128%. The caveats sit in legacy products. Prolia and Xgeva nearly halved under biosimilar competition. Free cash flow also came in 14% below last year. These caveats keep the score mid-band; the FDA process on TAVNEOS is an open risk as well.
Full Review
Revenue grows on volume, not price.
Product sales reached $9.88 billion. That is 8% growth, and the release attributes it to volume. Seventeen products grew by double digits. Seventeen products are also annualizing above $1 billion based on this quarter's pace. Repatha was the largest product at $1.09 billion, up 37%. Bone drug Evenity grew 39% to $751 million, and asthma drug Tezspire 43% to $538 million. On the rare disease side, Uplizna sales rose to $451 million, nearly tripling. In oncology, lung cancer drug Imdelltra grew 128% to $406 million. Blincyto also rose 27% to $496 million. Other revenues outside product sales climbed from $420 million to $482 million.
Biosimilar erosion is shrinking legacy products.
Prolia sales fell 45% to $632 million. Xgeva dropped 47% to $288 million. The two products totaled $1.68 billion a year ago; this quarter they came to $920 million. A year ago they made up roughly 18% of product sales; this quarter their share fell to 9%. The loss is about $760 million, driven by biosimilars launched globally. Psoriasis drug Otezla fell 18%. Enbrel grew 5%, but its net selling price declined 14%. The price drop stems from Medicare price setting that took effect in 2026. Thyroid eye disease drug Tepezza fell 6% on lower inventory. This quarter, the pace of new products comfortably covered the losses in legacy products.
Margin held, cash declined.
The adjusted operating margin was 47.3%. A year ago it was 47.1%, a 0.2-point expansion. The GAAP operating margin rose from 27.6% to 37.5% as acquisition-related amortization fell. Adjusted operating expenses rose 8%. R&D rose 11% to $2.11 billion, while selling and administrative costs fell 1%. The adjusted tax rate dropped from 18.2% to 15.9%. That 2.3-point tax decline helps explain why the earnings surprise was four times the revenue surprise. Free cash flow was $3.65 billion, 14% below $4.25 billion a year ago. The company links this to rebate and collection timing that favored last year. According to the earnings call, new CFO Thomas Dittrich does not expect a step-down in operating margin in 2027 versus 2026 guidance. Debt stands at $54.0 billion, and there were no share buybacks in the quarter. See the cash flow guide.
Guidance raised again, but close to expectations.
Full-year revenue guidance moved from $38.2-39.4 billion to $38.9-39.7 billion. The $39.3 billion midpoint is 1.0% above market expectations. The adjusted EPS range rose from $22.30-23.50 to $22.90-23.70. The midpoint is $23.30 against a $23.02 estimate. Nine-month revenue totals $29.04 billion. That implies fourth-quarter revenue of $9.86-10.66 billion. The $10.26 billion midpoint means roughly 4% growth over the same quarter last year. That is a clear slowdown from the 8.5% pace in the third quarter. The GAAP EPS range was also raised to $18.34-19.28. The market's revenue estimate is $38.9 billion, exactly the low end of the new range. Capex guidance stayed at $2.6 billion and the buyback cap at $3 billion. On the earnings call, Dittrich said he expects a meaningful sequential increase in operating expenses in the fourth quarter. He cited sales mix, higher profit-share expenses and investments shifted from the third quarter. Combined with slowing revenue, this could limit fourth-quarter profit.
Watch one number in the fourth quarter.
Next quarter, look at total revenue. $10.26 billion is the level implied by the guidance midpoint. If revenue lands above it, new products are still outrunning the erosion in legacy ones. If it falls short, biosimilar pressure has caught up with growth, and this quarter reads as the peak. The other half of the equation is Prolia plus Xgeva; this quarter they totaled $920 million. This measure will show not just one quarter but the growth base for 2027. In the pipeline, MARITIME-T2D-3, one of the type 2 diabetes Phase 3 studies of MariTide promised last quarter, has started. The remaining two will start in the fourth quarter. On the call, management said MariTide has been well tolerated at target doses, with side effects lasting a few days. MariTide's first Phase 3 results are expected in 2027; until then, this balance carries the stock. For a reading method, see the earnings day guide.
Looking Ahead
Strengths and Risks
6 Strengths · 6 RisksStrengths
6- Product sales grew 8%, and the release identifies volume as the source of that growth.
- Seventeen products grew by double digitsSeventeen are annualizing above $1 billion in sales.
- Repatha grew 37% to $1.09 billion in the quarter and became the company's largest product.
- The adjusted operating margin was 47.3%On the call, management said it does not expect 2027 margins to fall below 2026 guidance.
- Full-year revenue and adjusted EPS guidance were raised again.
- Imdelltra's DeLLphi-305 Phase 3 study cut the risk of death by 58% in first-line maintenance therapy.
Risks
6- Prolia and Xgeva fell 45-47% under biosimilar competitionTheir combined sales dropped to $920 million.
- Free cash flow of $3.65 billion was 14% below last year.
- Enbrel's net selling price fell 14% because of Medicare price setting.
- The FDA wants TAVNEOS voluntarily withdrawn from the U.S. market, and the company's appeal is still pending.
- Management expects a meaningful rise in fourth-quarter expenses, while guidance implies revenue growth slowing to about 4%.
- The stock trades 16% above the average analyst target, leaving less room for further surprises.
What to Watch
6- MariTide's first Phase 3 results are expected in 2027, when management will share efficacy and tolerability data.
- Two additional type 2 diabetes Phase 3 studies of MariTide will start in the fourth quarter of 2026.
- Dazodalibep's OASIZ-301 results will be presented orally at ACR Convergence in November.
- Dazodalibep's OASIZ 303 Phase 3 study is expected to complete in the fourth quarter of 2026.
- The FDA process on TAVNEOS continues; the company submitted supporting materials on July 23, 2026.
- Q4 2026 earnings and 2027 guidance are due ~February 2027.
Upcoming Earnings
To Understand This