Overview
Newer Analysis:Q3 2026 · Oct 20
Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SpaceX)
SPCX · NASDAQQ2 2026Telecommunications · Space, Satellite Internet and Compute Infrastructure
Since the Report + 29.8%
Revenue grew 92.0% year over year, EPS beat the estimate by 66.0%; the stock fell 13.6% in its first reaction.
- RevenueQ2
- $7.81B
- ▲ 92% YoY
- EBITDAAdjusted
- $3.54B
- ▲ 191% YoY
Verdict
BUYBoth counted tests in SpaceX's first report are open: $7.81 billion of revenue beat the highest Market Expectation by 10%, loss per share was 66% smaller; score 80, view buy. No formal guidance was issued, so the third test does not count; $18.4 billion of capital spending and lock-up releases hold the score at the buy band's floor. The stock fell 13.6% the next day as management signaled a similar spending pace for two more quarters; the question now is the $100 billion run-rate targeted for December.
Close on Report DayAug 4
$114.92▼ 13.6%Report-Day Move
- Market Cap(Today)
- ≈ $2.03 T
- Net Margin(Trailing 12M)
- − 1.5%
Earnings Summary
In 30 Seconds- SpaceX reported $7.81 billion of revenue in its first earnings release, 10% above the highest market estimate and up 92% year over year.
- AI segment revenue jumped 247% year over year to $2.56 billion, and the segment posted positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time.
- The stock fell 13.6% the next day after quarterly capex of $18.37 billion came in roughly 39% above expectations.
The Numbers
Loss Per Share
-$0.09
Estimate −$0.26 · 66% Better
Capital Expenditure
$18.37B
~39% Above Expectation
Starlink Subscribers
12.0 Million
+1.7 Million in the Quarter
Cash & Securities
$100B
Backlog $47.5B
Quarterly Revenue ($ Billion)
4.07
Q2 25 · $4.07 B
- Missing Quarter
4.69
Q1 26 · $4.69 B
7.81
Q2 26 · $7.81 B · QoQ + 66.6% · YoY + 91.9%
- Q2 25
- Q1 26
- Q2 26
Q3 2026 Guidance (Reported)
- Q3-Q4 26 Quarterly Capital Expenditure18.4 billion
Similar to the Q2 LevelFlat Trend
- December 2026 Annualized Revenue Run-Rate100 billion
Q2 Annualized $31.3BAggressive Target ▲
- Year-End 2026 Compute Capacity2 GW
15-20 GW Targeted by end-2027Rapid Buildout ▲
- 2030 Annual Revenue Target1 T$
Previously Targeted for 2031Pulled Forward ▲
Segment and KPI Data
Revenue by Segment
- Connectivity$4.29 BShare 54.9%▲ 66.0% YoY
Starlink consumer, enterprise and government revenue
- AI$2.56 BShare 32.8%▲ 247.0% YoY
Includes $367M of advertising revenue
- Space$962 MShare 12.3%▲ 29.0% YoY
Launch services and development revenue
Key Metrics
Starlink ARPU (Monthly)
$66.0
▼ 22.4% YoYPress Release
Enterprise & Government Connectivity Revenue
$1.81 B
▲ 108.3% YoYPress Release
Total Launches
38 launches
▼ 17.4% YoYPress Release
Mass to Orbit
485 tons
▼ 25.6% YoYPress Release
Nameplate Compute
1.40 GW
▲ 250.0% YoYPress Release
Cloud Services Contracted Sales
$14.1 B
Press Release
Shares are computed over the segment total: $7.81 B. Source: Press Release.
Metrics come only from the company's own filings; each one names the document it was taken from.
“The combination of our global launch leadership, recurring Starlink revenue, and rapid growth in AI infrastructure continues to drive improved operating leverage.”
- Starship Heat Shield Solved
- Starlink V3 Capacity Leap
- AI Compute Capacity Buildout
Summary and Review
Summary
SpaceX reported its first public quarter after the close on August 4. Revenue was $7.81 billion; the Market Expectation ran from $6.8 to $7.1 billion, so even the highest was beaten by 10%: revenue test open. Loss per share was $0.09 against $0.26 expected, 66% smaller: earnings test open. No formal guidance was issued, so that test does not count. Two open tests means the buy band; score 80. Revenue grew 92%; adjusted EBITDA rose 191% to $3.54 billion.
The stock still fell from $125.33 to $108.27 the next session, down 13.6%. The trigger was spending, not revenue. Capital expenditures hit $18.37 billion in one quarter against an expectation near $13 billion, roughly 39% above it. Of that, $15.83 billion went into AI infrastructure. Management expects a similar pace for two more quarters. First-half free cash flow is roughly negative $25 billion. Then the calendar: the August 6 lock-up release made 911.5 million shares tradable.
Our view is buy, from the floor of the band. Growth, margins and subscriber gains are strong; a $47.5 billion backlog and $100 billion in cash buy a long runway. The reservations are heavy: no cash generation yet, a loss-making launch arm, Starlink revenue per subscriber down from $85 to $66, and no formal guidance. So the score stays at 80. The sell-off does not change the grade; most of it was share supply. More: What Is an IPO?
Full Review
Satellite internet is now the revenue engine.
The Connectivity segment — Starlink — produced $4.29 billion in the quarter, 55% of total revenue, up 66% year over year. Subscribers reached 12.0 million from 6.0 million a year earlier. Net additions were 1.7 million, the best subscriber quarter in the company's history. On the call, President and COO Gwynne Shotwell pointed to the enterprise side: enterprise and government revenue grew 108%, and aviation is only 10% penetrated. Segment adjusted EBITDA was $2.60 billion, a 60.5% margin, making this the most profitable arm of the business. The one caveat is revenue per subscriber: blended ARPU is $66 a month against $85 a year ago. That is mix, not discounting, as growth increasingly comes from lower-priced markets. It is also why subscribers doubled while segment revenue rose only 66%. How that gap behaves over the next few quarters will define the segment's real growth rate.
The surprise was in spending, not in revenue.
Quarterly capital expenditure was $18.37 billion against a widely held expectation near $13 billion, about 39% higher. For scale: revenue in the same quarter was $7.81 billion, so the company spent more than twice what it earned. First-half capex reached $28.48 billion versus $6.97 billion a year earlier. With $3.47 billion of cash from operations, first-half free cash flow lands near negative $25 billion. CFO Bret Johnsen said the pace should stay similar for the next two quarters. The company can fund it. The June 12 IPO raised roughly $85.7 billion and a June 26 bond issue added $25 billion. The quarter closed with $100 billion in cash and marketable securities against $36.84 billion of long-term debt. The question is not solvency; it is how long that capital takes to come back. This reservation holds the score at the floor of the buy band. More: What Is Cash Flow?
The AI arm grows fastest and costs the most.
The AI and cloud segment grew 247% year over year to $2.56 billion in revenue and delivered $1.15 billion of adjusted EBITDA. It also absorbed $15.83 billion of the quarter's $18.37 billion of capital spending. SpaceX exited the quarter with 1.4 gigawatts of compute online. Johnsen said the target is more than 2 gigawatts by year end and roughly 15 gigawatts of power and cooling capacity by the end of 2027. Contracted cloud services sales stand at $14.1 billion. The roughly $60 billion Cursor acquisition is expected to close in the third quarter. The arithmetic is simple: the segment looks profitable, but it is consuming fourteen times its own EBITDA in capital. Management argues that payback on new compute investment has fallen below one year. That claim cannot yet be verified from the outside, and it is precisely what the market questioned on August 5.
Launch still loses money, Starship nears the threshold.
The Space segment grew 29% year over year to $962 million but posted adjusted EBITDA of negative $205 million. The founding business is now the smallest of the three arms and the only one losing money. Operationally the picture is brighter: 78 launches in the first six months delivered 1,041 metric tons to orbit. Starshield contracts total more than $6 billion; total backlog is $47.5 billion. On the call, Elon Musk addressed Starship Flight 13's heat shield. His words: "I don't want to jinx it or anything, but I think I'd consider the heat shield problem solved at this point." Flight 14 is set for late August. Pending approval it will attempt the first tower catch of the upper stage and deploy operational V3 Starlink satellites. Musk called V3 roughly an order of magnitude more capable than V2. For Starlink's cost curve, that matters more than segment revenue.
Part of the sell-off had nothing to do with the quarter.
The stock rallied 9.4% into the print, closing at $125.33, then fell to $108.27 the next session. Other space names had an ordinary day; what was sold was one company's spending plan. A second pressure sat on top. The August 6 lock-up release made 911.5 million shares tradable, more than one and a half times the 639 million floated at the IPO. Short interest had risen from about 40 million shares on June 23 to 219.3 million on July 29. On August 6 itself the stock closed up 6.1% at $114.92; the supply wave did not arrive on day one. The shares still trade well below the $135 IPO price and the June high of $225.64. That does not change the grade. The line to watch in November: does capex stay near $18.4 billion while revenue nears the $100 billion run-rate. More: Market Cap, Float and Splits
Looking Ahead
Strengths and Risks
6 Strengths · 6 RisksStrengths
6- All three segments grew and total revenue rose 92% year over year to $7.81 billion, above every version of the Market Expectation.
- Adjusted EBITDA rose 191% to $3.54 billion and operating loss narrowed from $970 million to $143 million; the operating leverage is real.
- Starlink subscribers doubled in a year to 12.0 million, with 1.7 million net additions in the quarter — the company's best subscriber quarter yet.
- The balance sheet holds $100 billion in cash and marketable securities after the IPO and the June bond issue, funding a long investment cycle.
- A $47.5 billion backlog, $14.1 billion of contracted cloud sales and more than $6 billion of Starshield contracts improve revenue visibility.
- Starship's heat shield problem appears solved, and Flight 14 is set to deploy operational V3 Starlink satellites.
Risks
6- Quarterly capex of $18.37 billion ran about 39% above expectations and more than twice quarterly revenue; management expects a similar pace for two more quarters.
- First-half free cash flow is roughly negative $25 billionThe income statement is improving while cash burn accelerates.
- The lock-up unwinds in tranches911.5 million shares on August 6, a roughly 28% tranche with the Q3 report, the balance on December 8.
- Starlink's monthly revenue per subscriber fell from $85 to $66, which is why revenue grew only 66% while the subscriber base doubled.
- The Space segment posted $205 million of negative adjusted EBITDAThe company's founding business is still losing money.
- No formal guidance was issuedThe $100 billion run-rate and sub-one-year payback claims remain verbal commitments.
What to Watch
6- Late August 2026Starship Flight 14, pending regulatory approval, will attempt the first tower catch of the upper stage and deploy operational V3 Starlink satellites.
- During Q3 2026The roughly $60 billion Cursor acquisition is expected to close.
- September–October 2026: five time-based lock-up tranches release at 70, 90, 105, 120 and 135 days after the IPO, each roughly 7% of locked shares.
- ~November 2026The Q3 report, which also triggers a roughly 28% lock-up tranche.
- December 2026Year-end targets of more than 2 gigawatts of compute and a $100 billion annualized run-rate; the remaining lock-up balance releases on December 8.
- June 12, 2027Elon Musk's roughly 6.4 billion shares (42% of the equity, 85% of the voting power) unlock, with no early-release condition.
Upcoming Earnings
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