Overview
Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SpaceX)
SPCX · NASDAQQ3 2026Telecommunications · Space, Satellite Internet and Compute Infrastructure
Since the Report + 1.4%
Revenue grew 161.4% year over year, EPS beat the estimate by 133.0%; the stock rose 8.1% in its first reaction.
- RevenueQ3
- $14.58B
- Estimate $12.87B · 13.2% Beat
- Diluted EPSGAAP
- $0.35
- Estimate $0.15 · 133% Beat
Verdict
BUYSpaceX beat third-quarter estimates by 13.2% with revenue of $14.58 billion and by 133% with EPS of $0.35, posting its first profitable quarter since the IPO. The stock rose 7.4% after hours; on the call, the company guided to $33-37 billion in revenue for the first quarter of 2027. The next thing to watch is how fast fourth-quarter capital spending of $35-40 billion turns into that revenue.
Close on Report DayOct 20
$147.79▲ 8.1%Report-Day Move
- Market Cap(Today)
- ≈ $2.03 T
- Net Margin(Trailing 12M)
- − 1.5%
Earnings Summary
In 30 Seconds- SpaceX beat estimates by 13.2% with $14.58 billion in revenue and posted its first profitable quarter since the IPO.
- Super Intelligence revenue rose 830% year over year to $7.56 billion, more than half of total revenue.
- The stock rose 7.4% after hours as the company guided to $33-37 billion in first-quarter 2027 revenue.
The Numbers
Adjusted EBITDA
$8.81B
Estimate $6.59B · 34% Beat
Capital Expenditures
$19.59B
Q2 $18.37B ▲ 6.7% QoQ
Starlink Consumer Subscribers
13.6M
+1.6M in Quarter · ▲ 89% YoY
Stock Reaction
▲ 8.1%
After Hours · 8:00 P.m. ET · $159.70
Quarterly Revenue ($ Billion)
5.58
Q3 25 · $5.58 B
4.96
Q4 25 · $4.96 B · QoQ − 11.0%
4.69
Q1 26 · $4.69 B · QoQ − 5.4%
7.81
Q2 26 · $7.81 B · QoQ + 66.5%
14.58
Q3 26 · $14.6 B · QoQ + 86.5% · YoY + 161.4%
- Q3 25
- Q4 25
- Q1 26
- Q2 26
- Q3 26
Q4 2026 Company Guidance
- Year-End 2026 Compute2.5 – 3.0 GW2.5 GW3.0 GW
Prior Target 2 GW · 1.7 GW at End of SeptemberRaised 37.5% ▲
- Q4 26 Capital Spending35 – 40 billion35 billion40 billion
Midpoint 37.5 · Q3 Actual 19.59Up 91% vs Q3 ▼
- Q1 27 Revenue33 – 37 billion33 billion37 billion
Midpoint 35.0 · Q3 Actual 14.58Up 140% vs Q3 ▲
- December 2026 Revenue Run Rate100 billion
Q3 Annualized 58.3 · Reaffirmed on Call58% of Target ▲
How to Read the Chart
The blue band is the company's low-high range; its length shows how much room the company left itself. The black triangle and the line beneath it mark where the market expected, and the notch in the band is the range's midpoint. The triangle appears only where a market expectation is known. When the company gave a single number rather than a range and no market expectation is known, that row gets no band at all: there is no length to measure and no position to compare. Axis is ±10% around the midpoint.
Segment and KPI Data
Revenue by Segment
- Super Intelligence$7.56 BShare 51.9%▲ 830.0% YoY
Cloud services, Grok and Cursor revenue
- Connectivity$5.25 BShare 36.0%▲ 69.0% YoY
Starlink consumer, enterprise and government revenue
- Space$1.77 BShare 12.1%▲ 6.0% YoY
Launch services and development revenue
Key Metrics
Starlink Consumer Monthly ARPU
$69.0
Press Release
Enterprise & Government Connectivity Revenue
$2.13 B
▲ 91.0% YoYPress Release
Total Launches
35 launches
Press Release
Mass to Orbit
476 tons
Press Release
Nameplate Compute
1.70 GW
Press Release
Cursor Revenue Contribution
$608 M
Press Release
Shares are computed over the segment total: $14.6 B. Source: Press Release.
Metrics come only from the company's own filings; each one names the document it was taken from.
“Highly confident of 10 gigawatts incremental next year, so 13 total. I would be surprised if we brought on less than 13 gigawatts of compute by the end of next year.”
- 13 GW of Compute by End of 2027
- Q4 Spending of $35-40B
- Q1 27 Revenue Guidance
Summary and Review
Summary
SpaceX reported third-quarter revenue of $14.58 billion. That is up 161% year over year, against a market expectation of $12.87 billion, a 13.2% beat. Diluted EPS was $0.35 versus an estimate of $0.15. Net income was $4.40 billion, compared with a $1.05 billion loss a year ago. The revenue and earnings gates are therefore open. No market expectation could be found for the first-quarter 2027 revenue guidance given on the call. The third gate is therefore not counted.
The stock closed the regular session at $147.79. After the close it was at $158.78 as of 6:36 p.m. ET, up 7.4%. The market read this report not as a spending story but as a revenue story. On the call, the company put fourth-quarter capital spending at $35-40 billion. That is roughly double the third quarter. The same call guided to $33-37 billion in revenue for the first quarter of 2027. The midpoint is 140% above third-quarter revenue.
The score is 82 with a buy verdict; it rates the quarter, not the stock. Both the revenue and earnings gates are open. The call added one support and one caveat. The support is the first-quarter revenue guidance and a $63 billion backlog. The caveat is doubled spending and a gross margin returning to second-quarter levels in the fourth quarter. Part of net income came from interest income and a tax benefit. The Space segment is also still loss-making.
Full Review
Half of revenue now comes from Super Intelligence.
The company renamed its artificial intelligence segment Super Intelligence. Segment revenue was $7.56 billion. It rose 830% year over year and 195% sequentially. Its share of total revenue reached 52%. Growth came from cloud services agreements, Grok adoption and the Cursor acquisition. Advertising revenue was $538 million, up 19% year over year. Solutions and infrastructure revenue jumped from $359 million to $7.02 billion. Cursor joined in a deal that closed on August 14. Through the end of September it added $608 million of revenue. The segment posted its first operating profit: $431 million. That came despite $1.2 billion of share-based compensation tied to Cursor. Segment adjusted EBITDA was $4.95 billion. Nameplate compute reached 1.7 gigawatts, up from 0.6 gigawatts a year ago.
Starlink growth accelerated.
Connectivity revenue was $5.25 billion. It rose 69% year over year and 22% sequentially. Consumer revenue grew 57%, and enterprise and government revenue grew 91%. Starlink consumer subscribers reached 13.6 million. The company added 1.6 million subscribers in the quarter. Monthly revenue per consumer subscriber rose from $66 to $69. A year earlier it was $83. The company ties subscriber growth to developed markets. Segment operating income rose 99% to $2.37 billion. The operating margin is about 45%. Segment adjusted EBITDA rose 82% to $3.50 billion. Starlink now flies on more than 3,800 aircraft. The company also agreed to buy nationwide 800 MHz spectrum licenses for Starlink Mobile.
Part of the profit came from outside operations.
Operating income was $2.79 billion. Net income was $4.40 billion. Three items explain the gap. Interest income was $873 million. Other income came to $1.03 billion. The company also booked a $390 million tax benefit. Interest expense was $675 million. These items may not repeat. Even so, operating income alone shows a meaningful turnaround. A year ago the operating loss was $273 million. In the second quarter the loss was $143 million. Adjusted EBITDA beat expectations by 34%. Profitability comes mainly from the Connectivity and Super Intelligence segments. Pre-tax income was $4.01 billion. For the first nine months, the company still has a net loss of $413 million. That is why the durability of profits will be tested in the fourth quarter.
Spending doubles in the fourth quarter.
Capital expenditures were $19.59 billion in the third quarter. That is up 6.7% from $18.37 billion in the second quarter. Of that, $16.44 billion went to Super Intelligence. In the second quarter, management guided to a similar pace. The call changed that frame. Fourth-quarter spending will be $35-40 billion. The midpoint is 91% above the third quarter. In return, installed compute will reach 2.5-3 gigawatts by year-end. The prior target was 2 gigawatts. Operating cash flow for nine months was $13.10 billion, far below spending. The balance sheet holds $51.29 billion in cash and $38.56 billion in marketable securities. Starship's 14th flight was its first revenue-generating mission. So two of last quarter's expected events, the Starship flight and the Cursor deal, have happened. The Space segment posted a $7 million operating loss.
Next quarter, watch Super Intelligence revenue.
This quarter's story comes down to one segment. Super Intelligence revenue has started to cover the spending. The segment's adjusted EBITDA margin was about 66%, up from 45% in the prior quarter. On the call, Elon Musk said he expects at least 13 gigawatts of compute by the end of 2027. The company reported a $63 billion backlog as of September 30. In the fourth quarter, watch one line: Super Intelligence revenue. If it stays above $7.56 billion, the spending pace keeps its rationale. If it falls below, part of this quarter's jump came from Cursor's addition and one-off contracts. The second gauge is the first-quarter guidance. The $33-37 billion range requires more than doubling quarterly revenue. The earnings day guide is a good place to start reading this metric.
Looking Ahead
Strengths and Risks
6 Strengths · 6 RisksStrengths
6- Revenue of $14.58 billion beat expectations by 13.2% and grew 161% year over year.
- The Super Intelligence segment posted its first operating profit, at $431 million.
- Starlink consumer subscribers rose by 1.6 million in the quarter to 13.6 million.
- Starship completed its first revenue-generating mission on its 14th flight.
- The balance sheet holds about $89.9 billion in cash and marketable securities.
- The company guided to $33-37 billion in first-quarter 2027 revenueThe midpoint is 140% above the third quarter.
Risks
6- Fourth-quarter capital spending of $35-40 billion will be roughly double the third quarter.
- The company expects fourth-quarter gross margin to return to second-quarter levels.
- Part of net income came from interest income, other income and a tax benefit.
- Starlink monthly revenue per consumer subscriber fell from $83 a year ago to $69.
- The Space segment posted a $7 million operating loss on Starship research spending.
- Post-IPO lock-up expirations could add supply pressure on the stock.
What to Watch
6- December 2026The year-end compute target rose to 2.5-3 gigawatts; it was 1.7 gigawatts at end of September.
- December 2026Management's target of a $100 billion annual revenue run rate will be tested.
- December 8, 2026The remaining IPO lock-up balance is released.
- First half of 2027The 800 MHz spectrum license purchase is expected to close.
- June 12, 2027The lock-up on Elon Musk's shares expires.
- 2029First launch targeted from the new Starbase site in Louisiana.
Upcoming Earnings
To Understand This