Overview
Nebius Group
NBIS · NASDAQQ2 2026AI Cloud Infrastructure · Data Center
Since the Report − 34.4%
Revenue grew 454.0% year over year, EPS beat the estimate by 83.0%; the stock rose 34.1% in its first reaction.
- RevenueQ2
- $582.3M
- ▲ 454% YoY
- AI Cloud Revenue
- $575M
- ▲ 514% YoY
Verdict
BUYNebius grew quarterly revenue 454% year over year to $582 million, swung adjusted EBITDA firmly positive for the first time, and lifted its annualized run-rate revenue (ARR) to $3 billion. Four new AI cloud contracts each worth more than $1 billion, plus a raised year-end contracted-power target of 5 GW, sent the stock up roughly 34% on earnings day. The key thing to watch now is whether the company can keep funding its enormous capital spending with customer prepayments through to 2027, when those mega-deals begin converting into revenue.
Close on Report DayAug 12
$259.20▲ 34.1%Report-Day Move
- Market Cap(Today)
- ≈ $46.2 B
- 1Y Return(At Report)
- + 244%
- Net Margin(Trailing 12M)
- 3.1%
Earnings Summary
In 30 Seconds- Revenue rose 454% year over year to $582.3M; AI cloud revenue grew 514% to roughly 98% of the total.
- Annualized run-rate reached $3.0B, and the year-end contracted power target was raised from 4 GW to 5 GW.
- Four new contracts worth more than $1B each sent the stock up about 34% on earnings day.
The Numbers
Annualized Run-Rate (ARR)
$3.0B
▲ 56% QoQ
Adjusted EBITDA
$236.2M
Margin 40.6% · AI Cloud 50%
Adjusted EPS
−$0.12
Loss Narrowed 64% YoY
GAAP Net Loss
−$190.4M
Widened with Capex Ramp
Quarterly Revenue ($ Million)
105
Q2 25 · $105 M
146
Q3 25 · $146 M · QoQ + 39.0%
228
Q4 25 · $228 M · QoQ + 55.9%
399
Q1 26 · $399 M · QoQ + 75.2%
582
Q2 26 · $582 M · QoQ + 45.9% · YoY + 454.0%
≈850–950
Q3 26E · ≈850–950 · QoQ + 54.6% · YoY + 516.0%
- Q2 25
- Q3 25
- Q4 25
- Q1 26
- Q2 26
- Q3 26E
Q3 2026 Company Guidance
- Full-Year Revenue3.0 – 3.4 billion3.0 billion3.4 billion
Midpoint $3.2B · All MetricsReaffirmed ✓
- Year-End ARR7 – 9 billion7 billion9 billion
From $3.0B at End of Q2Reaffirmed ▲
- Contracted Power5 GW
Was 4 GW+ in MayRaised 25% ▲
How to Read the Chart
The blue band is the company's low-high range; its length shows how much room the company left itself. The black triangle and the line beneath it mark where the market expected, and the notch in the band is the range's midpoint. The triangle appears only where a market expectation is known. When the company gave a single number rather than a range and no market expectation is known, that row gets no band at all: there is no length to measure and no position to compare. Axis is ±14% around the midpoint.
Segment and KPI Data
Revenue by Segment
- Nebius AI Cloud$575 MShare 98.1%▲ 513.6% YoY
- TripleTen$10.0 MShare 1.7%▼ 18.7% YoY
- Avride$1.00 MShare 0.2%▲ 400.0% YoY
Key Metrics
Annualized Run-Rate (ARR)
$3.00 B
▲ 598.0% YoYShareholder Letter
AI Cloud Adjusted EBITDA Margin
49.7%
Shareholder Letter
Quarterly Capex
$5.66 B
Press Release
Cash and Equivalents
$8.04 B
Press Release
Shares are computed over the segment total: $586 M. Source: Press Release.
Metrics come only from the company's own filings; each one names the document it was taken from.
“Demand for AI capacity continues to grow exponentially, and we are converting that demand into contracted, profitable growth.”
- Demand Growing Exponentially
- Four $1 Billion Contracts
- Cloud EBITDA Margin 50%
Summary and Review
Summary
Nebius reported $582.3 million in Q2 2026 revenue, a 454% jump from $105 million a year earlier. About 98% came from AI cloud services, a segment that grew 514% year over year. ARR reached $3 billion, up 56% quarter over quarter. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $236 million, a 40.6% margin; within AI cloud it reached 50%. Nebius signed four new cloud contracts each exceeding $1 billion. The year-end contracted-power target rose to 5 GW; cash stayed above $8 billion.
The stock reacted strongly. After opening roughly 15% higher pre-market, NBIS closed up about 34% at $259.20. What excited investors was less this quarter's figures and more the signals about the future. Four mega-deals, demand outstripping supply, and management's comment that 2027 capacity could be sold out today. The rally pushed the stock to the analysts' average target of roughly $263, leaving little near-term upside. Most of those targets predate the report, though, and analysts began revising them higher.
Operationally this was an almost flawless quarter. Revenue, ARR, margins and contract backlog all beat together, backed by concrete contracts. Still, Nebius is unprofitable on a GAAP basis; net loss widened to $190 million and quarterly capex hit $5.7 billion. Customer prepayments and $8 billion in cash fund most of that investment, softening the risk. Rising share count and capital intensity still matter. The scorecard is strong, so our assessment is positive; it scores the quarter, not the stock price.
Full Review
AI cloud services are the revenue engine.
About 98% of quarterly revenue, or $575 million, came directly from Nebius's AI cloud services, and that segment grew 514% year over year. A year ago total revenue was just $105 million; the company more than quintupled that base, showing it is one of the fastest-growing 'neocloud' players in the sector. The driver is insatiable demand for GPU-based compute and Nebius's ability to bring that capacity online quickly. Revenue also rose 46% sequentially versus the prior quarter, a sign that the growth is durable momentum rather than a one-off. The stock reaction mirrored that picture: a roughly 34% gain on earnings day. The main question is no longer whether demand exists, but how fast the company can build the power, data-center and chip capacity to meet it.
ARR and four mega-deals point to the future.
Perhaps the single most important figure of the quarter was annualized run-rate revenue (ARR) reaching $3 billion, up 56% from the prior quarter. It is a snapshot of how much revenue existing contracts generate on an annual basis. The company also disclosed four separate AI cloud contracts each exceeding $1 billion, with the bulk of their revenue contribution landing in 2027. Management said these deals carry yields of $20-25 million per megawatt and, thanks to customer prepayments, cut payback periods to under two years. Founder and CEO Arkady Volozh stressed that the company is deliberately holding back capacity for shorter, higher-priced contracts. The year-end contracted-power target was also raised to 5 GW. Nebius reaffirmed its year-end 2026 ARR target of $7-9 billion, more than double the current $3 billion. Visibility thus rests on a contracted revenue base spread over years, not a single quarter.
EBITDA turned positive but GAAP loss and burn persist.
Adjusted EBITDA swung from a $21 million loss a year ago to $236 million positive this quarter. It reached a 40.6% total margin and 50% within the AI cloud business; concrete proof that unit economics improve as scale grows. On the other side of the picture, however, GAAP net loss widened to $190 million this quarter and quarterly capex reached $5.7 billion. The gap between the two stems from heavy depreciation, interest and capacity build-out costs. That investment is largely funded by customer prepayments (more than $9 billion expected in 2026) and $8 billion in cash. Share count rising to fund growth adds dilution risk. The 64% year-over-year narrowing of adjusted net loss is an encouraging signal, but the company has not yet reached net profitability. The balance investors must track is how quickly rising margins can offset the capital intensity.
Valuation caught up to targets after the rally.
After the 34% jump on earnings day, NBIS rose to $259 and settled just below the analysts' average price target of roughly $263. That pushed upside against current targets to nearly zero. There are two readings of this. On one hand, the market appears to have already priced in the strong quarter and the 2027 outlook. On the other, most of those targets were set before the report, and analysts began raising their estimates immediately after the results. So the 'zero upside' picture could change within a few weeks. The stock has gained about 244% over the past twelve months, meaning expectations are already high. What carries the story from here will be whether ARR progresses toward the $7-9 billion target. The line to check in November's Q3 report: how far ARR has moved from $3 billion toward that target, and progress toward 5 GW.
Looking Ahead
Strengths and Risks
6 Strengths · 6 RisksStrengths
6- Revenue grew 454% YoY and 46% sequentiallyMomentum is strong.
- ARR reached $3 billion and rose 56% quarter over quarter.
- Adjusted EBITDA is meaningfully positive for the first timeAI cloud margin 50%.
- Four new contracts each above $1 billion secure future revenue.
- $8 billion in cash and $9B+ in expected prepayments support funding.
- Contracted-power target raised to 5 GW for year-end.
Risks
6- GAAP net loss widened to $190 millionNet profitability is still distant.
- Quarterly capex of $5.7 billionCapital intensity is very high.
- Share count is rising to fund growth, creating dilution risk.
- Post-rally price sits at the analysts' average targetNear-term upside is limited.
- Mega-deal revenue mainly arrives in 2027Execution and timing risk remain.
- Delays in chip, power or data-center supply could disrupt the capacity plan.
What to Watch
4- Q3 2026 results are due around November 2026.
- Tracking the $7-9 billion year-end ARR and 5 GW contracted-power targets.
- The four $1 billion contracts beginning to flow into 2027 revenue.
- Analysts' post-earnings price-target revisions.
Upcoming Earnings
To Understand This