December Hike Odds Fall to 72% as Logan Calls for Two More
Markets are closed until Monday; New York exchanges reopen on November 2 at 9:30 a.m. ET (5:30 p.m. in Istanbul). U.S. daylight saving time ends on November 1, so the open comes an hour later in Turkey.
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Friday the Fed needs at least two more 25-basis-point rate hikes. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem also argued for further tightening. In his words: "I judge that additional firming of monetary policy will be necessary, and soon."
The market did not add to its hike bets. CME FedWatch shows the odds of a December 9 hike fell from 79.9% on Thursday to 72.4% on Friday; the policy rate sits at 3.75%-4.00%. On a day of tech selling, demand for Treasuries outweighed the hawkish talk.
Tech was the center of the selloff. Intel fell 28.6% to $65.76 after its earnings, AMD lost 10.9% and Nvidia 4.2%; the Philadelphia semiconductor index dropped 7.2%. The Nasdaq Composite ended October down about 5.3%, its worst month since March 2025.
In the last session (October 30), QQQ (Nasdaq 100) fell 3.47%, SPY () 1.77% and () 1.07%. () also lost 1.65%; Thursday's selling in big tech spread to small caps on Friday.
