October CPI Rises 0.4%, Beating Forecasts; Yields Climb
October inflation came in above expectations. CPI, released at 8:30 a.m. ET (4:30 p.m. in Istanbul), rose 0.4% month over month against a 0.3% forecast. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3%, above the 0.2% forecast.
No annual rate was published this month. October 2025 data was never collected during the 2025 government shutdown, so there is no comparison. In September, headline CPI rose 0.6% and core rose 0.3%.
A speech this morning raised the stakes. In London, Fed Governor Christopher Waller called for a bigger move if core CPI came in at 0.3% or higher. Core inflation landed exactly on that threshold.
Waller's words on the December meeting were direct: "I believe a 50 basis point hike in the policy rate should be considered at the December meeting."
After the data, the 2-year yield rose about 13 basis points to around 4.7%. S&P 500 futures went from flat before the release to down 0.7%. Markets fully price a December hike; the debate is now about its size.
The second story is Anthropic. The company updated its IPO filing, seeking up to $64.4B by selling 825 million shares at $70 to $78 each. At the top of the range, its fully diluted value is about $1.4T; it will trade on Nasdaq as ANT.
Nvidia fell more than 4% on Monday and is flat in premarket trading. The new development is a shareholder lawsuit filed minutes after the close. It alleges that investors were not told about Jensen Huang's relationship with a suspected Chinese intelligence asset.
